GBPUSD action today

[forker]

Not too blunt.
Like I said, if i'm honest 200pips per month doens't sound very good to me either, although i've had a few messages saying that anyone telling me that they are making 50-100 pips per day consitently are talking boll0x and that my results are good.
I don't know.
I've had a look on the 'live calls thread' on this forum. Some of the guys seems to make money overall, but if you do the maths, they don't seem to make anything like the 50pips per day you talk about (over time)

I'd like to see someone make 50pips on average everyday, with live calls to prove it can be done. Would be interesting to know that it's actually possible.

On the plus side, my live account is at a new high today. made 50pips on cable.

I started this account with £1850.
I have just shy of £1000 in there now, although have also withdrew £3850 into my bank

Considering upping my stakes slightly soon.

Keep up the good work..

 

[Shakone]

hi scholfield,

contrary to what others have posted c200 pips per month trend catching isnt a very good return.

~a guesstimate avge of the atr of most major fx pairs is c100 pips a day - a decent trend trader will be catching 50%+ of the move.
~2 setups a day across the majors is not unreasonable.
~with a SR 50% and SL 25pips = 25pips per day = 500pips a month.
~sh1t loads of screen time, practice of PA entry/exits should squeeze SR closer to 60% and reduce SLs also
~which means that 500 pips a month is a lower limit for your monthly targets.

on that back of toilet paper analysis i think you need to review your strategy/techniques, but this is just my opinion.

hope this is not too blunt, happy to discuss further.

So 500 pips on a 25 pip stop is the minimum is it. So risking 2% a trade, this gives 40% a month. So someone starting with just 10k and trading that in two years will have over 30 million. And that's if you only reach the minimum target each month. Toilet paper analysis indeed.

 

[rsh01]

So 500 pips on a 25 pip stop is the minimum is it. So risking 2% a trade, this gives 40% a month. So someone starting with just 10k and trading that in two years will have over 30 million. And that's if you only reach the minimum target each month. Toilet paper analysis indeed.

hmm, you are questioning the possibility of making 25 pips a day, effectively.

which = £200 a day risking 2% on a 10k account.

please explain, without compounding, how a return of £200 a day = £30m after 2 years.

also tell me why you think 25 pips a day is unreasonable with a 2r strategy. as i said, this is effectively what you are arguing against.

i vm look forward to your response.

 

[VielGeld]

I think he's simply disputing your claim that 200p/m isn't a good return. I'd say any sort of consistent return is plenty good enough.

Of course, to play devil's advocate for a moment, given the range of currency movement these days, I'd say it's possible to do 100+p/d if you have a strong edge and are on the ball at all times.

 

[Shakone]

hmm, you are questioning the possibility of making 25 pips a day, effectively.

which = £200 a day risking 2% on a 10k account.

please explain, without compounding, how a return of £200 a day = £30m after 2 years.

also tell me why you think 25 pips a day is unreasonable with a 2r strategy. as i said, this is effectively what you are arguing against.

i vm look forward to your response.

So according to you, not only is 200 pips a month on a 25 pip risk per trade poor for a new trader, but he should be getting minimum 500 pips a month, i.e 20 times his risk (or actually more because you want him to increase his strike rate to 60% and decrease his stop loss), and if he does get that, you're also now suggesting he not compound? Any more pearls?

Ok, so 60% win rate, 2 trades per day, lets leave the stop loss despite you saying you'd get that smaller too, and 2 trades a day with risk:reward 1:2. Correct me if I'm wrong, that means on an average month risking 2% a trade, you make 64%. Now, would you tell me how many months in a row you've been making 64% or above a month?

If you want to debate hypotheticals of what is possible, of course it's possible. Is it reasonable to expect though? No, not unless you're a superb trader. Is it reasonable to expect from a new trader? Definitely not.

I look forward to being shown how wrong I am, and that you can consistently get at least 64% a month. Perhaps you can demonstrate in the live call thread, or a thread of your own. Can't wait.

 

[rsh01]

So according to you, not only is 200 pips a month on a 25 pip risk per trade poor for a new trader, but he should be getting minimum 500 pips a month, i.e 20 times his risk (or actually more because you want him to increase his strike rate to 60% and decrease his stop loss), and if he does get that, you're also now suggesting he not compound? Any more pearls?

Ok, so 60% win rate, 2 trades per day, lets leave the stop loss despite you saying you'd get that smaller too, and 2 trades a day with risk:reward 1:2. Correct me if I'm wrong, that means on an average month risking 2% a trade, you make 64%. Now, would you tell me how many months in a row you've been making 64% or above a month?

If you want to debate hypotheticals of what is possible, of course it's possible. Is it reasonable to expect though? No, not unless you're a superb trader. Is it reasonable to expect from a new trader? Definitely not.

I look forward to being shown how wrong I am, and that you can consistently get at least 64% a month. Perhaps you can demonstrate in the live call thread, or a thread of your own. Can't wait.

Nice turn around. The context is trading with a trend, which you are happy to ignore. Why wait for a trend if your happy to take 10pips a day, trade the range - on the same t/f. He's not though - he's trying to trade the trend, my suggestion is that there may be smthg wrong with his strategy if 10pips a day is his target when catching a trend. You obviously think its brilliant.

If he was trading high correlated mean reverting spreads (5 years ago), then 1 tick a day wld suffice. But he's not, he's trading with the trend.

 

[Shakone]

Nice turn around. The context is trading with a trend, which you are happy to ignore. Why wait for a trend if your happy to take 10pips a day, trade the range - on the same t/f. He's not though - he's trying to trade the trend, my suggestion is that there may be smthg wrong with his strategy if 10pips a day is his target when catching a trend. You obviously think its brilliant.

If he was trading high correlated mean reverting spreads (5 years ago), then 1 tick a day wld suffice. But he's not, he's trading with the trend.

Not an answer. How many months in a row have you made 32 times the risk you put on a trade?

 

[morgan_edge]

Sometimes you think you're jumping on a trend and it abrubtly turns around and stops you out.
Sometimes you think you'll 'just trade the range' and it carries on dropping and begins a trend.
You make it sound as though when you decide to 'trade the trend' it all becomes terribly easy and you should be making hundreds of pips per day.
If it were that easy, then.....
I tend to think that whether you're a newbie or an old hand, if you are consistently making anything, then you are ahead of the game.
Would also be interested in your live calls, though

 

[rsh01]

Not an answer. How many months in a row have you made 32 times the risk you put on a trade?

Yes it is. This has nothing to do with me, I am not trading intra day with trend as my only strategy. It has nothing to do with whether he is a beginner or not. It has everything to do with the strategy he is trading and his expectations, which you are setting stupidly low for that strategy.

If you want 10pips a day trade orderflow with rr 1:1. Get it? its to do with conext.

 

[Shakone]

Yes it is. This has nothing to do with me, I am not trading intra day with trend as my only strategy. It has nothing to do with whether he is a beginner or not. It has everything to do with the strategy he is trading and his expectations, which you are setting stupidly low for that strategy.

If you want 10pips a day trade orderflow with rr 1:1. Get it? its to do with conext.

Right as I thought. You've no idea what you're talking about.

200 pips a month, does not mean you are aiming low, nor does it mean you're aiming for 10 pips on a given trade. It's already clear he's been taking larger wins than 10 pips.

You're willing to tell a new trader ridiculous tales, and give him absurd expectations, that you couldn't achieve yourself. Why?

 

[rsh01]

Sometimes you think you're jumping on a trend and it abrubtly turns around and stops you out.
Sometimes you think you'll 'just trade the range' and it carries on dropping and begins a trend.
You make it sound as though when you decide to 'trade the trend' it all becomes terribly easy and you should be making hundreds of pips per day.
If it were that easy, then.....
I tend to think that whether you're a newbie or an old hand, if you are consistently making anything, then you are ahead of the game.
Would also be interested in your live calls, though

Ok, my comments weren't to be taken to make it sound easy, I have never said that or was I trying to imply that. Taking any money from the market is hard. However I have a view that if your trading with trend your target should be > trading counter trend. And > scalping, range trading, spread trading etc etc.

You all obviously disagree. The end.

 

[rsh01]

Right as I thought. You've no idea what you're talking about.

200 pips a month, does not mean you are aiming low, nor does it mean you're aiming for 10 pips on a given trade. It's already clear he's been taking larger wins than 10 pips.

You're willing to tell a new trader ridiculous tales, and give him absurd expectations, that you couldn't achieve yourself. Why?

I was implying his strategy needed work. Until he posts charts or more details about his strategy I cannot do anymore than that.

 

[scholfield]

nor does it mean you're aiming for 10 pips on a given trade. It's already clear he's been taking larger wins than 10 pips.

I think I mentioned earlier, but my targets per trade are always around 30pips and stops are usually around 20pips.

I took over 50 pips on cable on Friday:
(Dont know why my pnl info looks wrong? I did indeed deposit 1862, but i've only withdrawn 3850 to my bank??)

anyway

 

[rsh01]

Right as I thought. You've no idea what you're talking about.

I trade in a room with 'experienced' traders whose daily targets are 40-50pips a day. Trading with or counter trend. And they reach their monthly targets. They do not compound - they take money out to live.

So setting yourself a target of half there's @ 25pips a day on with trend trades is ridiculous, ok I will tell them that.

 

[Shakone]

What does 'daily target' mean? To me that means something you aim for, perhaps even you stop for the day if you reach that. But that's irrelevant, unless you hit your daily target every single day of the month.

So now these experienced traders make 40-50 pips a day on 20-25 pips stops? So that's 2 times the risk per day? Or 4% a day if they risk 2% a trade? 80% a month, every month? And they can't even compound their accounts a little bit because they need to take money out to live? Right ok.

 

[rsh01]

I think I mentioned earlier, but my targets per trade are always around 30pips and stops are usually around 20pips.

I took over 50 pips on cable on Friday:
(Dont know why my pnl info looks wrong? I did indeed deposit 1862, but i've only withdrawn 3850 to my bank??)

anyway

Well done. Scholfield, but when say next week you have a nightmare and knock your average back down to 10pips per day, don't bother about working on your entry/exit techniques, mm etc as the 10pips a day is as high as you should be aiming for according to everyone else.

 

[rsh01]

And they can't even compound their accounts a little bit because they need to take money out to live? Right ok.

Of course they can. They don't. I haven't gone through what they do with their money, or should I find that out for you? I know one is sticking large amounts into PMs.

 

[scholfield]

Keep up the good work..

thanks.

ps - I really like your thread because the 'TA' part of my method is based on 'patterns' that I have never read about anywhere else and kind of made up myself, and like you, I gave them each their own 'name', lol.

pps - this month looks like being the worst yet. Possibly around breakeven. better than a losing month I guess, but I definitely feel as though It needs more work/tweaking.

 

[scholfield]

thanks.

ps - I really like your thread because the 'TA' part of my method is based on 'patterns' that I have never read about anywhere else and kind of made up myself, and like you, I gave them each their own 'name', lol.

pps - this month looks like being the worst yet. Possibly around breakeven. better than a losing month I guess, but I definitely feel as though It needs more work/tweaking.

July ended up being a very small positive month of +60 pips for the month.

This month is also terribly slow, and i'm around break-even for this month.

Howver, I 'appear' to be putting losing months behind me (for now at least)
It's with fairly flat or positive by, on average, around 150pips or so.

Maybe I should look for other ideas whilst sticking with my current 'stuff'

I wanna be averaging 20pips per day or so.

However, I'm also relatively pleased with my results as for quite a few months i've been trading 5-10 times per day, 10-20pip stops, and pretty much made *something* every month. Beginning to build quite a large sample of trades which, if they keep showing good results, may give me something with some statistical significance.
I know a lot of people who have been losing rather large sums of money with this daytrading malarky, so content for now!

Thanks Forker and Shakone in particular for you posts.

 

[angelnish]

GBPUSD : Sell 1.5800 T/P : 1.5720