trader_dante
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I can find 11 bearish price actions prior to the major drop (see attached).
I love your charts fibonelli.
Simple and easy to read.
I can find 11 bearish price actions prior to the major drop (see attached).
TA is a refinement of FA.
:?:Is it:?: I meant PA. See what G&T does to your brain.
Some really good contributions to this thread which I hope any newbie will use as a learning resource.
I'm not at all convinced that it was the fundamentals (funnymentals? :jesterthat triggered the major drop. Though it is important to keep abreast of the big picture in terms of future movements in interest rates, economic growth rates and fund flows.
The charts (ie TA) were illustrating the change in demand and supply by the market participants well before the major drop from 1.98. KISS!
The bearish PinBar on the weekly chart as described by TD.
I spotted a Head and Shoulder top with two shoulders on the weekly.
The Head and Shoulders chart pattern, if it works out in theory, is a measured move. Therefore, technically there was potential for a large move of 1700 points ($2.11 to $1.94). Yes, price did reach this objective of $1.77. The H&S TA pattern did work.
Trendline breaks on GBPUSD and GBPJPY described by SLBF.
I spotted a Wedge Pattern on the Daily with a Steep Ascending TL with a sequence of lower lows. Suggesting a major move upon pattern completion.
Tons of evidence on the 4hr chart as Ampro described. I can find 11 bearish price actions prior to the major drop (see attached).
The triangle on daily gave some insights, together with a long cycles of the pair displayed on the weekly. (continuation of Welles Wilder Delta count of LTD sibce 1978). I am expecting the gap to be tested in the not too distant future, once this gap crossed possibly after few attempts from the downside I would expect the test of the lower line of the triangle. I think the pair is in the window of the LTD12, some possible reversal indicated by Fibs.
Happy trading to all,
2be
The triangle on daily gave some insights, together with a long cycles of the pair displayed on the weekly. (continuation of Welles Wilder Delta count of LTD sibce 1978). I am expecting the gap to be tested in the not too distant future, once this gap crossed possibly after few attempts from the downside I would expect the test of the lower line of the triangle. I think the pair is in the window of the LTD12, some possible reversal indicated by Fibs.
Happy trading to all,
2be
This pin bar on the weekly started the whole move (chart 1). It's not the benefit of hindsight, I called it and traded it as it occured in my other thread MMT. They don't work all the time when you get them at nothing but an "extreme" but all you need is one to go 2,000+ pips to pay for the ones that don't. This happens much more than most people would believe.
Now we have one on the weekly Eur/Gbp (chart 2). Perhaps this will be the top too. I am already a bear from the bearish engulfing on the daily.
Exactly, my point. That 'pin bar', God help us, explains exactly nothing. TA is a trading methodology to control risk, hence the very good point that "2,000+ pips to pay for the ones that don't". The reason TA looks stupid is, even in hindsight it is completely vacuous in cases like this.
Whereas, looking at the housing market and the economy the fundamental explanation is obvious. I did say this in my room when cable was above 2.00. Cable had to go down because it was at stupid levels. Trying to catch the top with a 50 pip stop based on fundies is a bad idea which is where TA comes in. But TA never explains anything in the long term and for moves of this magnitude. If the UK economy wasn't in such bad shape and the US didn't look better than people expected (rightly or wrongly), cable would not have fallen so much so quickly, pin bar or no pin bar.
Regardless of the fundamentals, price action again called the move...not trying to be a wise **** just showing why I trade the way I do...
Price action cannot 'call' moves. It is not even a meaningful thing to say. You have just been lucky.
LOL are you joking?
Price action cannot call moves?
I cannot actually believe you just wrote that.
Wonder when my 18 month lucky stint will run out?![]()
Price action cannot 'call' moves. It is not even a meaningful thing to say. You have just been lucky.
The outcome of individual trades is purely a matter of luck.
There is obviously no causal relationship between price action and price action.
In my view it was not technicals but fundamentals that have driven this which is why I think that it is good trading practice to consider both.
Technicals are useless when it comes to 2000 pip moves.
The cable drop has nothing to do with technicals. The only thing that kept it up was the fear that the MPC would hike rates (lol). On 13 August King hinted they wouldn't. cable fell sharply and never recovered. Technicals are useless when it comes to 2000 pip moves.
so the break on gbpjpy was nothing inportant (in my earlier post?) Fundamentals matter but its all obvious on the chart too imo.
On the causal relationship on price action, I mean one cannot look at what the price is doing and say how far it is going to go, or even if it if going to continue. Dante's thinking is circular and that kind of thinking is common.
On the causal relationship on price action, I mean one cannot look at what the price is doing and say how far it is going to go, or even if it if going to continue. Dante's thinking is circular and that kind of thinking is common.
It was clear that cable was going to fall sharply. It was of course impossible to know when the decisive move would come or how much it would go up before the sharp decline. Timing is hard, which is why trading is hard: you can be right and lose money, especially if you are undercapitalised.
The chart attached shows how plain obvious it can get...
There is no way to say (TA/PA or FA) for sure how far a move will go, only where it may pause/reverse on the way. This is why managing positions en route is just an important part of trading as the entry and exit.
On the causal relationship on price action, I mean one cannot look at what the price is doing and say how far it is going to go, or even if it if going to continue.
It was clear that cable was going to fall sharply. It was of course impossible to know when the decisive move would come or how much it would go up before the sharp decline. Timing is hard, which is why trading is hard: you can be right and lose money, especially if you are undercapitalised.
There is no way to say (TA/PA or FA) for sure how far a move will go, only where it may pause/reverse on the way. This is why managing positions en route is just an important part of trading as the entry and exit.