My way is to maximize probability.In my research I use statistical methods
Inter alia
* moment estimation , expected return and covariance , maximum likelihood estimation under a multivariate Gaussian assumption for returns
* arbitrage in comparison of the pound and dollar indices*
amazing curiosity:
this is my another stats
test arbitrage HFT/MFT use VDS university computer and London ECN datacenter 10µs
326 transactions
1224877.83 USD 24 500 % (sic!) https://www.mql5.com/en/signals/382803
but this is only theory