Best Thread GBP/USD Breakout
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Claudia123
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No no i was trading my system there before starting this thread. Its under GBP/USD something or other. shouldn't be hard to find.
Claudia123
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Thanks Neil. I more and more think Fridays should be avoided full stop. Next Friday we got options roll over and christmas looming - that sounds like trouble for sure.
HawkTrader
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Good I stayed out of today's trade. Had a look and could have been immediate 20pips loss. Somebody would say it's a bad discipline not to follow system all the time, but somehow today I didn't like it.
I guess system needs a bit of fine tuning - maybe not enter it after 9am?
Hope someone does a bit of research and help us made fewer losses - I'll have a look and let you know if found anything.
I guess system needs a bit of fine tuning - maybe not enter it after 9am?
Hope someone does a bit of research and help us made fewer losses - I'll have a look and let you know if found anything.
HawkTrader
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I think Claudia doesn't enter her setups after 9:30am.
Another good one could be don't enter if there is big news soon?
Still haven't had a chance of looking at the other thread, but if the strategy is different their result for october is inconclusive. In october using your strategy I'm counting 12 winning trades out of 22 (actually 59%)...will check it again but let me know if u see something different
thx
Claudia123
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Correct - as always
Claudia123
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For the very brave of you lot who like a gamble a friend of mine has a horse running in the UK tonight. Good price. Wont post here PM if you want some fun.
nunrgguy
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This looks to be working well in todays market - has anyone gone far back in time with it?
Just looking at 2001 march april data I've had 11 losses, 12 wins, the problem being the losses are 20 pips and if the wins had been left rather than trailing stops, the number losses much greater, but with traiing a lot of the winners did not reach 20 pips.
How are you accounting for current volatility with stop size?
I've encountered similar issues with all straight line, fixed stop systems, they seem to work for a while but then a string of losses come along, or a few losses, a couple of wins, another small string of losses and wipes everything out - always tending towards zero.
Just looking at 2001 march april data I've had 11 losses, 12 wins, the problem being the losses are 20 pips and if the wins had been left rather than trailing stops, the number losses much greater, but with traiing a lot of the winners did not reach 20 pips.
How are you accounting for current volatility with stop size?
I've encountered similar issues with all straight line, fixed stop systems, they seem to work for a while but then a string of losses come along, or a few losses, a couple of wins, another small string of losses and wipes everything out - always tending towards zero.
Claudia123
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Shouldn't you be more interested in 2009/2010 than 2001 ? Volatility is good for break outs as you are buying into a short term trend.
Regards losses/drawdowns then this is an individuals money management issue. If I have say 5 straight wins which is not unusual I then reduce my stake anticipating a loss which will inevitably come.
Regards losses/drawdowns then this is an individuals money management issue. If I have say 5 straight wins which is not unusual I then reduce my stake anticipating a loss which will inevitably come.
nunrgguy
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I'm interested in market conditions other than those at present because at some point conditions will change, therefore you need to know how to change with them.
It's usual to adjust position size according to the remaining size of your account rather than on having had a few winners in a row. In the period I'm looking at the string of trades started with 6 losers in a row anyway so going by reverse logic we've had six losers so a winner must come along soon so we increase position size??? i.e. Martingale?
It's usual to adjust position size according to the remaining size of your account rather than on having had a few winners in a row. In the period I'm looking at the string of trades started with 6 losers in a row anyway so going by reverse logic we've had six losers so a winner must come along soon so we increase position size??? i.e. Martingale?
Claudia123
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Martingale is just asking to blow your account. It's not 'if' it's 'when'. I agree that market conditions will change and do all the time but when you are essentially buying into a trend it doesn't matter.
What I disagree with is looking back to 2001 I think that is pointless. I far more interested in what happens next Monday morning that what happened in March 2001.
I trade in the real world - back testing will not tell me what decision I would have took to exit a position 8 years ago. The point of my strategy is quite simple - it gives a very defined entry point. Exit is down to the individual trader. I choose 20 pip but often take more or less depending on the way the market is going.
Keep back testing and have fun. I will keep forward trading.
What I disagree with is looking back to 2001 I think that is pointless. I far more interested in what happens next Monday morning that what happened in March 2001.
I trade in the real world - back testing will not tell me what decision I would have took to exit a position 8 years ago. The point of my strategy is quite simple - it gives a very defined entry point. Exit is down to the individual trader. I choose 20 pip but often take more or less depending on the way the market is going.
Keep back testing and have fun. I will keep forward trading.
gamma
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I think we Brits are preoccupied with theory and back testing, rather being in the real world.
It reminds me of a time in 2004, when I was trading the ftse, One day there was an anomaly in the pricing, which could have been taken advantage of, all my American and Asian contacts were piling in taking advantage of the situation, all my Brit contacts were analyzing the situation and working out the cause and effect of it.
They are probably still analyzing it while the rest are enjoying a drink.
3am - 11/12/09 - on a 10 minute chart. The stick moved 40 points in that 10 minutes. What would have caused such a shift? Is there a market that opens at 3am
From my very limited experience it seems cable doesn't move much overnight during the Asian watch and I wondered what would cause to shift so much.
From my very limited experience it seems cable doesn't move much overnight during the Asian watch and I wondered what would cause to shift so much.
nunrgguy
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I think you're very quick to dismiss what is a fundamental issue.
You mention making a decision to exit...what decision are you talking about? There's no decision to make, you have a 20 pip stop set at entry and you have a target of 20 pips.
Why, in backtesting (on a simulator not going bar by bar) would you make a different decision based on the PA you see rather than live - what else are you taking into account?
Also (I'm trying to understand this BTW not being critical), you keep saying you are buying into a trend - which trend?
My point is that unless you keep hitting your 20 pip target you're going to get slaughtered, no ifs or buts. Doesn't matter what data you look at. Everyone bangs on about entries all the time and pay scant regard to exits which are FAR more important. It's very easy to get 4,5,6, winners in a row, put your stop on side as soon as you go 2 pips in profit - there you go. BUT you are still going to get wiped out.
A completely different question...how do play it if the overnight range is, for arguments sake, 6 pips?
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Claudia123
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Ok - good to see someone else alive on Saturday ! sorry if last post came across a bit harsh.
Maybe sometimes my translation is not perfect but will try and answer your questions as best as possible as this.
Yes I have a hard stop in place at - 20. Target is + 20 but I will let that run on if it does so and close the trade on a discretionary basis but very rarely more than +25 as the market usually has a pull back at these points. Many times I see the breakout run on + 50 and more, after the pull back. I do not set limit orders currently.
Buying into a trend. Well if the market breaks through a trading range in my view this is moving in a short term trend which is what a break out is all about surely? I don't use any indicators. Candle chart on 1 hour time frame.
And you are right of course - need to hit + 20 or so regularly. Closing trades at +2 (or whatever) would be pointless and suicidal. Sure exit is very very important, but (imo) a good entry makes a good exit much easier?
Risk/reward has to be 1:1 (minimum) and win/loss a minimum of 75%. This strategy currently does that. It may continue it may not and December can be a funny month for obvious reasons, but its proved good so far.
If the market moved 6 pips I would still trade when a signal was given.
Over the past few years I have traded system after system, chased losses, made all the mistakes and paid the price. Used all the indicators etc etc. Started trading this way around a year ago and it is so simple and consistently profitable - at the moment.
Did you read the 'Big Ben' article I posted on here some where? Very similar system from around 5 years ago - not quite 2001 (sorry couldn't resist) worth reading as it explains why these systems work far better than I can.
Hope answered most of your questions as best I can.
Have a good weekend.
Claudia123
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With it being on an hour I would guess some big news break in one of the Asian markets. Have a look at the forexfactory economic calendar that might give a clue.
Remembered before used to work on some systems myself, got enthusiastic and after back testing came back to earth. Since that time like to do back testing (when I'm not lazy).
Started looking at the system from Mon 7/12. Based on 1am to 7am range and with stop 20+3 and limit 20-3 (I like to calculate spread in back testing as my SB company charges it every time)
Results from 7/12 to 11/12:
7/12 Mon WIN 20-3=17
8/12 Tue WIN 20-3=17
9/12 Wed LOSS 20+3=23
10/12 Thu LOSS 20+3=23
11/12 Fri LOSS 20+3=23
Total loss: 35 pips for 5 days
Win. trades 40%
reward/risk = 17/23 = 1/1.35
This is only 5 days results - no good for conclusion as yet. If results are like this for longer period, system would lose you money quickly. I guess with reward/risk ratio of 0.739 to break even need to get more than 60% success.
Please note I wanted to contribute with this towards all of us making more money. I still think the system is worth looking at (I must admit I’m bit lazy to back test it for last 3 months)
Started looking at the system from Mon 7/12. Based on 1am to 7am range and with stop 20+3 and limit 20-3 (I like to calculate spread in back testing as my SB company charges it every time)
Results from 7/12 to 11/12:
7/12 Mon WIN 20-3=17
8/12 Tue WIN 20-3=17
9/12 Wed LOSS 20+3=23
10/12 Thu LOSS 20+3=23
11/12 Fri LOSS 20+3=23
Total loss: 35 pips for 5 days
Win. trades 40%
reward/risk = 17/23 = 1/1.35
This is only 5 days results - no good for conclusion as yet. If results are like this for longer period, system would lose you money quickly. I guess with reward/risk ratio of 0.739 to break even need to get more than 60% success.
Please note I wanted to contribute with this towards all of us making more money. I still think the system is worth looking at (I must admit I’m bit lazy to back test it for last 3 months)
Claudia123
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That's interesting bedsit. I took profit on Thursday +21.3. Didn't trade Friday as no valid signal as I remember (unless it was later in the morning)
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