GBP/USD 123's

[Pipmaster1]

Price broke the #2 point on the 60 min 123. Not just need a retrace, looking for at least a 61.8%. Also RSI 3 on the 30 min chart will need to be extreme, hopefully price will retrace deep enough to bring RSI 3 sown to extreme for the trigger.

 

[Pipmaster1]

Well the 60 min 123 pushed up was 10 pips under the 200%, if I was in this trade at the #2 point this very well could've have limited me out since I give the target price a little breathing room! Regardless I'll not be waiting for a retrace to enter this trade, it is over and done with for me.

 

[Pipmaster1]

Look at that price went right to the 144 Fib Extensions

 

[Pipmaster1]

I just noticed this correlation between the 60 min 200% line and the potential #2 point on the 8 hour chart. Price may just continue up but its cool too see different time frames agreeing with each other. So I'd expect price to drop and retrace and give us #3 point.

 

[Pipmaster1]

This is what price is doing now, we may get a set up. Its still early to tell. However it is a really good sign that what would be a #3 point on the 12 hour chart is a 200% line on the 2 hour 123. The one thing I don't like is the #2 point on the 12 hour is a little sloppy. We have seen this correlation in the past between the 12 hr and smaller time frames and it seems to have a high probability, even though it doesn't happen very often.

 

[Pipmaster1]

OR NOT.... for the love

 

[Pipmaster1]

Well on monday the north bridge on my motherboard burnt up. The good news is that it is still under warranty, but that means my trading station will be down for about 25 days. Such a bummer, hope I dont miss too many trades.

 

[Pipmaster1]

My desktop is still down, sadly. I hope I'm not missing too much in the GU. I don't talk much about our investment side on this forum but its all I can do right now. We had a nice little move in a China Natural Gas company, ticker is CHNG, bought in at $4.91. Natural Gas is so cheap it really only has one way to go over the mid to long term. Crude oil is still under $75 a barrel, there are a few ways to trade the oil market that I think are going to make a fortune in the next 5 years. Silver is my other favorite but it too is a 5 year trade, maybe more, maybe less. It really depends when the dollar tanks. I would also like to short the Bond market too, interest rates have to rise at some point and when they do bond prices will come down.
Just a few things from our investment side.

 

[Chartsy]

My desktop is still down, sadly. I hope I'm not missing too much in the GU. I don't talk much about our investment side on this forum but its all I can do right now. We had a nice little move in a China Natural Gas company, ticker is CHNG, bought in at $4.91. Natural Gas is so cheap it really only has one way to go over the mid to long term. Crude oil is still under $75 a barrel, there are a few ways to trade the oil market that I think are going to make a fortune in the next 5 years. Silver is my other favorite but it too is a 5 year trade, maybe more, maybe less. It really depends when the dollar tanks. I would also like to short the Bond market too, interest rates have to rise at some point and when they do bond prices will come down.
Just a few things from our investment side.

in a double dip? i dunno if it's gonna be a double dip or not but ima be reading the news

 

[Chartsy]

haha! can't believe this lol but last 2 days i thought i was onto something great when i thought, rather than try to go long at support of a swing high, go short on the break of it!

which is just a 123

 

[Pipmaster1]

lol, nice. what are you trading?

And interest rates have to rise at some point. How long would you loan out your money or save your money if rates are this low? I think 30 year bonds are paying less than 5%, who would loan out like that? Not me! It doesn't make any sense for the long term. Interest is the cost of money, the government has no business deciding the cost of money no more than they have put price controls on anything else. There is an ugly history with price controls, and they only reason they have to control it is because they fee market would push it they other way. So by definition they are distorting the real value by controlling interest rates. But who knows it could take 2 years or maybe 10 years, anybodies guess. But I think it'll pay to position one's self that when the trend changes you are already in the market. Just my thoughts though......:whistling

 

[Chartsy]

actually noticed it on some stocks, but will check out metatrader later, well i'm no economist so i'll stay clear and just try to go with the flow

 

[Pipmaster1]

should hav my motherboard back in about 4 days....cant wait to get back up and trading!

 

[Pipmaster1]

I see a 2 hr 123 trying to form up. Still have another hour before the potential #2 candle closes. Anyways its what I'm seeing at the moment.

 

[Pipmaster1]

RIMM and ORCL reported tonight plus commodity prices have risen to high levels. Please explain how you have factored these recent events ( that have occurred in September ) into your model. If this still suggests a "false breakout" ( in your opinion ) what would have to occur to create a real rally ? Please be specific the market pays attention to news and commodity prices you should too.

Hello, you seem pretty sure of yourself. My model is strictly a technical one. I don't pay attention to reports. These 123 set ups are extremely high probability setups, they don't setup in times of extreme volatility. IN this picture notice how price went right to the 61.8% line and failed. I know this candle still has about 78 minutes left in it but if it closes like this it'll be a #3 point. The next step would be for price to break the #2 point, if that were to happen then the formation is set and the profit target is the 200% line below. The 4:27 1 minute candle was a very nice trigger candle, however since I was wanting my RSI 3 and RSI 14 to be a little more extreme and there was at the time 93 minutes left in the candle I decided to let it go by. I hope that answered your question.

 

[Pipmaster1]

Please be specific the market pays attention to news and commodity prices you should too.

I do agree with you that the market pays attention to news among other things. But what is the market? The market is just a group of traders interacting with one another. The one thing that you can always count on in this zero sum game is that price is moved by emotional people, because of this patterns emerge. Sometimes like in with the 123's we find they are very reliable patterns. So whatever the news is, traders all around the world are affecting price based solely on what they believe the future price will be, which shows up in price on my charts far fast and more efficiently then if I were to try to keep up with the news and then try to make a call based on that news. Just my opinion.

 

[Pipmaster1]

The 2 hour 123 feel apart. There was not enough setting up for me to get in at the #3 point, so I went bed. Price just kept going up and broke the #1 point. However one of the things that was conflicting with the direction of the 2 hr 123 was the 30 min FIBS chart. And you can see the 2 hr 123 in that chart and notice that the FIBS chart did excalty what it is supposed to do!

 

[Windowsill]

and notice that the FIBS chart did excalty what it is supposed to do!

The market does not have to do anthing.....thats quite an important learning point for you

 

[Pipmaster1]

LOLOLOL, a learning point for me!

When a system suggest that based on past performance price tends to go one direction over another is simply an edge. I was not saying the market has to do anything. I did however say that in this particular instance price ended up doing exactly what the systems suggested it would do. My systems are base on patterns we find in price action, price action is not based on my systems! Its important to keep that in the right pecking order.

 

[Lightning McQueen]

sorry Pipmaster1, i've deleted the goon tradestation, who you've quoted.

his post was a quote from somebody else over @ elitetrader, there's a whole bunch of them atm roaming our boards quoting everyone else on the net, we're in the process of weeding these idiots out.

i've left your post up as you took the time and trouble to reply to him.