You are right sir. Not buying can indeed have the same impact as selling. Others have provided various pointers to fundamental aspects and technical issues as well as news driven events. Fact is, the currency market is predominantly speculative in nature and the boys trading it know which way those who make the fiscal & monetary policy for the UK want the pound to go, and why. And that they have the will and means to ensure it goes that way. One trend you don’t want to buck.
You allude to the ineffectiveness of PV analyses. This is as true these days for exchange traded assets as it is for currencies, although for obviously significantly different reasons. You will be aware I am sure that there exist for physical currency the equivalent of dark pools where both speculative and commercial transactions are made off book. While the short term is an opportunity to tap the uninformed money, especially as a spot hedge, the longer term is ruled by both those who make M&F policy and those whose commercial viability is dependent upon it.
