Pippy5000
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Now would be a good time for our government to repay our debts to China, Saudi Arabia and Japan. That alone would help keep the dollar strong. Oh but no they won't do that.. We need to make sure that we don't lose jobs in an industry that loses billions of dollars per year.. God forbid the auto workers find jobs in industries that actually produce profits..
HINT: it would be cheaper in the long-run for all those auto workers to be on welfare.
I'd rather see the government take advantage of the strong dollar rather than bailout GM, Ford and Chrysler. These are companies in the long-time business of building cars only Americans could possibly like or use and now it seems that even Americans don't like their products. They have been destroyed by Japanese and Korean companies and it really is time for them to die the death they deserve and for new American car companies to take their place and build a product we can be proud of and the rest of the world can use.
You might want to check a list of democratic campaign contributors if you're holding your breath for that to happen though..
HINT: it would be cheaper in the long-run for all those auto workers to be on welfare.
I'd rather see the government take advantage of the strong dollar rather than bailout GM, Ford and Chrysler. These are companies in the long-time business of building cars only Americans could possibly like or use and now it seems that even Americans don't like their products. They have been destroyed by Japanese and Korean companies and it really is time for them to die the death they deserve and for new American car companies to take their place and build a product we can be proud of and the rest of the world can use.
You might want to check a list of democratic campaign contributors if you're holding your breath for that to happen though..
Hawkmoon
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Well if intelligence, common sense & logical decision making were qualities common among those who govern our country, we wouldn’t have need to shoot the breeze on nearly half of what fills this & other public forums Pippy.
Still, long as I can get decent sized clips away on the correct side of the risk line & live to tell the tale, that’ll do for me. I’ll let the rest of the world worry bout putting it to rights.
Still, long as I can get decent sized clips away on the correct side of the risk line & live to tell the tale, that’ll do for me. I’ll let the rest of the world worry bout putting it to rights.
ping pong
Gambling was the key word today.
Some players were certainly flexing their muscles. I feel the rest of the week might be interesting and the 148-151 band bears watching.
Plan to spend some serious reading tonight when work finishes.
Gambling was the key word today.
Some players were certainly flexing their muscles. I feel the rest of the week might be interesting and the 148-151 band bears watching.
Plan to spend some serious reading tonight when work finishes.
Well, if you wish to make God laugh- make plans. I had every intention of doing serious reading tonight.
Due to increased demand on my time, I was only able to review the charts AMPRO and HAWKMOON
kindly provided.
Reviewing the charts repeatedly ( to me they complimented each other) an "AHAH" formed. I could actually see how one could have fun with the play betwixt the bands.
The big AHAH tonight was how clean both your charts were! Mine had many indicators that brought my attention to a muddied train of thought (it could go this way or that way, depending on the direction of....)
Again, my utmost appreciation for your thoughtful mentoring.
Due to increased demand on my time, I was only able to review the charts AMPRO and HAWKMOON
kindly provided.
Reviewing the charts repeatedly ( to me they complimented each other) an "AHAH" formed. I could actually see how one could have fun with the play betwixt the bands.
The big AHAH tonight was how clean both your charts were! Mine had many indicators that brought my attention to a muddied train of thought (it could go this way or that way, depending on the direction of....)
Again, my utmost appreciation for your thoughtful mentoring.
Hawkmoon
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If you can make sense of what’s on your technical sheets & more importantly, it makes you regular dollars, then I guess you could stick anything you want on there.
Trouble is, most folks haul up all kinds of fancy bells & whistles without really fully understanding & appreciating the indicators strength/weakness & limitations.
That’s not to rubbish price aids or advise against their use, simply to be aware of what they’re supposed to do & when they’re supposed to be most effective.
As far as indicators go, it might pay you to write down the comment below & stick it on your trade plan jotter where it’s nice & handy:
less equals more
Less Equals More
That was one of the items that was bothering me during chart reviews (one or two would say "go"; others would be neutral or suggest reversal on that TF.) it made for the crystal ball to be murky.
The charts and info provided yesterday, made it easier for me to choose a direction and sharpened the "pointee boot".
Trades have been more profitable . However, I am trying to reduce the emotional and second-guessing. That was another "aha!" I perceived from the charts. There were more solid target numbers to be aware of (the support/ resistance keys).
Also, standing waaaaay back from $ action with the long term monthly,was gave me another view of the traffic.
LESS EQUALS MORE ( does one suppose that this would work with the girlfriend?):idea:
That was one of the items that was bothering me during chart reviews (one or two would say "go"; others would be neutral or suggest reversal on that TF.) it made for the crystal ball to be murky.
The charts and info provided yesterday, made it easier for me to choose a direction and sharpened the "pointee boot".
Trades have been more profitable . However, I am trying to reduce the emotional and second-guessing. That was another "aha!" I perceived from the charts. There were more solid target numbers to be aware of (the support/ resistance keys).
Also, standing waaaaay back from $ action with the long term monthly,was gave me another view of the traffic.
LESS EQUALS MORE ( does one suppose that this would work with the girlfriend?):idea:
Hawkmoon
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A lot of the second guessing & emotional issues should dissipate once your game plan is fairly tight & your stake sizing is well within manageable control.
If you're looking to adopt support-resistance or buy-sell pressure zones as a primary driver of your execution triggers, then if you're plotting the zones from a daily, weekly or monthly template they'll hold good all the way down the timeframe scale.
It's then a case of picking your set-up/trigger combo of choice on your favored timeframe & waiting for it to signal on & around the level.
Example being that 148.20-151.50 area identified on the gbpjpy sheet.
If you were intent on playing it to the short side, in line with the dominant flows, then that specific level might have offered up a decent risk play?
Waiting until price vibrates a recognized level of previous activity where it fails to gain traction above a prior swing zone (which that area represents from 19 Nov) could well magnify a potential positive risk-reward play?
You don't really need a whole lot more on your technical sheet other than maybe the most pertinent info.
Last weeks/months important levels maybe.
Most recent high-low activity (swing) zones for reference & size/position planning etc
If the radar happens to signal a confluence event, like that s&r zone teamed with last weeks high, you might want to sit up & pay a little more attention?
Sometimes those kind of events can lead to a hefty pay day, other times they're not worth the research - but the point is, the more legitimate reasons you got in your favor to take action the higher the potential for a successful outcome as long as you "stack the odds as heavily on your side as possible"
Reviewed this thread on the weekend ( especially posts 33,34,35,48).
Reviewed my cleaner M and W charts wrt trends.Decided that short was the way to trade on Sunday.Last week's retrace would have made me doubt myself and consider Hedging.
The G/Y movement today proved the wisdom of your contributions. The rallies on the shorter TFs that would have caused me to abort trades were ignored. Stayed in the trade from the top to the near bottom.
Once again, my most sincere gratitude for all your time and efforts.
( Anna-M, I am "muddling thru" the info from the pm you sent and am unable to recall if I had responded to you.)
Reviewed my cleaner M and W charts wrt trends.Decided that short was the way to trade on Sunday.Last week's retrace would have made me doubt myself and consider Hedging.
The G/Y movement today proved the wisdom of your contributions. The rallies on the shorter TFs that would have caused me to abort trades were ignored. Stayed in the trade from the top to the near bottom.
Once again, my most sincere gratitude for all your time and efforts.
( Anna-M, I am "muddling thru" the info from the pm you sent and am unable to recall if I had responded to you.)
Hawkmoon
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She's off the radar until Friday of this week cru8. If you need anything clarifying/confirming just drop her another message, she'll get to you as & when.
Yeah, shorting the rallies is still the game play. Those barriers mentioned back aways are the ones which needed to pop to allow a little relief on the pound/yen. When it failed to gain traction up there at the 148.20 (as referenced by last weeks daily bar prints) there was only really one outcome.
Respective behavior on the gbpusd & usdjpy added to the 'short pound/long yen' bias.
Good to hear you took advantage of the continuing value play.
Today ( Dec. 5 ) doing my FA research. I noticed articles re: BoE and possible intervention(?); the WSJ ("considering.....unconventional steps to revive US economy") and Japan (re:rate cuts).
There followed a talk of "Rinban", that I was unable to fully understand. Could I impose upon some "White Knight" to point me in the right direction ?
The information provided thus far, has enabled me to have an exponential growth in my trading results ( profound thanks to all).
I find ( wrt my trading) that the info has allowed me to meld my TA with the FA for many more profitable trades ( with less anxiety).
There followed a talk of "Rinban", that I was unable to fully understand. Could I impose upon some "White Knight" to point me in the right direction ?
The information provided thus far, has enabled me to have an exponential growth in my trading results ( profound thanks to all).
I find ( wrt my trading) that the info has allowed me to meld my TA with the FA for many more profitable trades ( with less anxiety).
Thanks Again A-M
Informative article, after several reads (like eating an elephant- one bite at a time)
I have a few questions. How does injecting/withdrawing money into system keep interest rates at "targeted level"?
Is the primary goal of " quantitative easing" to stabilize/strengthen the country's economy or to halt/reverse deflation (or are they the same)?
My impression from N. Mellor's summary was that BoE's talk of Q.E.would have "little currency impact".(then he mentions Rinban and immediate US/Y increase,consolidation, then elevated US/Y activity.) I wonder if this was due to QE or were other forces involved?
Back to more slogging through ( you weren't kidding on the earlier posts about murky waters).
Also, the site given earlier has been quite interesting and I think that I shall pursue it's private forums.
Informative article, after several reads (like eating an elephant- one bite at a time)
I have a few questions. How does injecting/withdrawing money into system keep interest rates at "targeted level"?
Is the primary goal of " quantitative easing" to stabilize/strengthen the country's economy or to halt/reverse deflation (or are they the same)?
My impression from N. Mellor's summary was that BoE's talk of Q.E.would have "little currency impact".(then he mentions Rinban and immediate US/Y increase,consolidation, then elevated US/Y activity.) I wonder if this was due to QE or were other forces involved?
Back to more slogging through ( you weren't kidding on the earlier posts about murky waters).
Also, the site given earlier has been quite interesting and I think that I shall pursue it's private forums.
As/if ultra lowering interest rates fail to stimulate the economy into even a modest cycle of asset/equity growth & encourage lending between commercial partners & consumer entities, then quantitative easing, or to put it another way; ‘throwing unlimited amounts of money at the problem’ is a considered course of action.
As you allude to, one of its intended purposes is to stabilize by encouraging lending to commercial & private sectors. This is achieved by flooding the marketplace with excessive liquidity. Instead of relying on interest rate reductions as the primary force to protect against deflation, the powers that be simply increase the circulation of money into the system hoping the financial institutions will lend, & thus promoting a switch to more risk based assets & kicking the merry-go-round of lending cycles again.
It’s like a type of ‘re-balancing’ process, where increasing money supply is designed to assist investors & funds to stimulate their holdings & embrace risk once more.
As with any other financial prop, trust is paramount. The institutions need to be confident that once a certain policy is engineered or put to work, it’s going to remain & not be used as some kind of vague promise. This takes time to implement & is never straightforward.
There are several working papers (a decent BoJ one) doing the rounds out there if you get your Grade A search head on & are especially desperate to cure your insomnia
Failing that, Jimmy (hawkmoon) has copies of some of the meatier items in his store cupboard. They will go some way to answering & exapnding on some of your queries.
As you're quickly realizing, some of these research modules raise just as many (further) questions as they do answers. It might prove worthwhile to get your speed-reading skills back into gear - particularly if you're coming at this endeavor from a part-time angle
I think you'll benefit from the interaction on the 'other' priv forum facility. They certainly used to toss around one or two half decent links & snippets in there. I don't suppose it's lost any of its quality since I last looked in. It's light on chart-technical content, but that's not always a bad thing.
As you allude to, one of its intended purposes is to stabilize by encouraging lending to commercial & private sectors. This is achieved by flooding the marketplace with excessive liquidity. Instead of relying on interest rate reductions as the primary force to protect against deflation, the powers that be simply increase the circulation of money into the system hoping the financial institutions will lend, & thus promoting a switch to more risk based assets & kicking the merry-go-round of lending cycles again.
It’s like a type of ‘re-balancing’ process, where increasing money supply is designed to assist investors & funds to stimulate their holdings & embrace risk once more.
As with any other financial prop, trust is paramount. The institutions need to be confident that once a certain policy is engineered or put to work, it’s going to remain & not be used as some kind of vague promise. This takes time to implement & is never straightforward.
There are several working papers (a decent BoJ one) doing the rounds out there if you get your Grade A search head on & are especially desperate to cure your insomnia
Failing that, Jimmy (hawkmoon) has copies of some of the meatier items in his store cupboard. They will go some way to answering & exapnding on some of your queries.
As you're quickly realizing, some of these research modules raise just as many (further) questions as they do answers. It might prove worthwhile to get your speed-reading skills back into gear - particularly if you're coming at this endeavor from a part-time angle
I think you'll benefit from the interaction on the 'other' priv forum facility. They certainly used to toss around one or two half decent links & snippets in there. I don't suppose it's lost any of its quality since I last looked in. It's light on chart-technical content, but that's not always a bad thing.
Re: #54
This P.M. was reviewing M/W/D charts on G/Y and E/Y (as mentioned in a prior post to check out the latter for some clue to possible direction).Noted a slight blip and went to G/US and E/US. From an earlier Tech course (day trading variey), there was a general rule that E and G usually moved in tandem ( this was in a time when there was a God and greed was the "second-in-command"). The W and M did not appear to support this rule. My take was the Euro appeared to be somewhat healthier than GBP wrt USD (although, not about to become the Alpha currency) {AHA moment- better study GBP/EUR} :smart:
Re/re-reading this post ("trust is paramount") jumped out at me. The take that I have from news this week, is that banks are not passing on the decreased rates ( and are making loan approval more difficult).From my view as a "little guy", I form a negative opinion re: effects of QE.I suppose that I shall require more patience ( or is a first impression valid?).
I shall now search for BoJ and BoE tidbits.
This P.M. was reviewing M/W/D charts on G/Y and E/Y (as mentioned in a prior post to check out the latter for some clue to possible direction).Noted a slight blip and went to G/US and E/US. From an earlier Tech course (day trading variey), there was a general rule that E and G usually moved in tandem ( this was in a time when there was a God and greed was the "second-in-command"). The W and M did not appear to support this rule. My take was the Euro appeared to be somewhat healthier than GBP wrt USD (although, not about to become the Alpha currency) {AHA moment- better study GBP/EUR} :smart:
Re/re-reading this post ("trust is paramount") jumped out at me. The take that I have from news this week, is that banks are not passing on the decreased rates ( and are making loan approval more difficult).From my view as a "little guy", I form a negative opinion re: effects of QE.I suppose that I shall require more patience ( or is a first impression valid?).
I shall now search for BoJ and BoE tidbits.
Hawkmoon
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One of the disadvantages you’ll have of working your own account is that you don’t get fed a regular diet of pertinent or priority news/fundamental flavors throughout the trading day from fellow colleagues.
Neither do you get the constant access to rumor chatter & specific flow from the various avenues, something that is very much taken for granted when you find yourself out of the loop. If you got a decent contact base (ex-colleagues/desk sources etc) and/or a half decent squawk facility then it makes life a little easier.
If you’re intent on going down this route then best you’ll do is to collate the information from your various reference sources & simply be aware they’re in play or on the radar.
Key drivers (if they’re pertinent) rarely disappear from view for too long. Sure, one off or unique events will take precedence every so often, & (intraday-week) flavors will change accordingly, but usually the high ticket driver(s) won’t be too far out of eyeshot.
As long as you’re aware of what’s on the menu you can work your technical timing tools (short-medium term or a combination of both) around the relevance & strength of the prevailing price driver(s).
When you’re just starting out from scratch with no industry experience it’s not easy to combine the two (fundamental research & technical observation), which is why so few retailers have the stomach for it.
Remember too that particular times on the calendar will affect the volatility & directional bias of price movement. One such time is now.
Volumes are slipping & evaporating as the holidays & year end balancing approaches. Moves have a tendancy to get extended & amplified in thin trading conditions.
Be careful you don’t caught too far offside by nothing more than irregular & low liquidity traffic. This is the time where even the clearest fundamental reasonings can get pushed aside in favor of unpredictable price gyrations.
Neither do you get the constant access to rumor chatter & specific flow from the various avenues, something that is very much taken for granted when you find yourself out of the loop. If you got a decent contact base (ex-colleagues/desk sources etc) and/or a half decent squawk facility then it makes life a little easier.
If you’re intent on going down this route then best you’ll do is to collate the information from your various reference sources & simply be aware they’re in play or on the radar.
Key drivers (if they’re pertinent) rarely disappear from view for too long. Sure, one off or unique events will take precedence every so often, & (intraday-week) flavors will change accordingly, but usually the high ticket driver(s) won’t be too far out of eyeshot.
As long as you’re aware of what’s on the menu you can work your technical timing tools (short-medium term or a combination of both) around the relevance & strength of the prevailing price driver(s).
When you’re just starting out from scratch with no industry experience it’s not easy to combine the two (fundamental research & technical observation), which is why so few retailers have the stomach for it.
Remember too that particular times on the calendar will affect the volatility & directional bias of price movement. One such time is now.
Volumes are slipping & evaporating as the holidays & year end balancing approaches. Moves have a tendancy to get extended & amplified in thin trading conditions.
Be careful you don’t caught too far offside by nothing more than irregular & low liquidity traffic. This is the time where even the clearest fundamental reasonings can get pushed aside in favor of unpredictable price gyrations.
HAWKMOON and AMPRO: in previous posts, you both utilized the term " key drivers".
Might I impose upon you both for a definition of this term? (or where I might go to learn further).Yen and Swissy X's have been good;{however,this is not "rocket science" and I desire to learn how to anticipate $ moves}.The information re: "drivers" , may assist in my quest.
I sincerely hope that all have enjoyed a wonderful Christmas .
Might I impose upon you both for a definition of this term? (or where I might go to learn further).Yen and Swissy X's have been good;{however,this is not "rocket science" and I desire to learn how to anticipate $ moves}.The information re: "drivers" , may assist in my quest.
I sincerely hope that all have enjoyed a wonderful Christmas .
Hawkmoon
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Anna-Maria has been lured back to a bank desk in NY for a while, so she’s off the radar for now cru8.
Neither of us will be posting on here in future. You know where we hang out if you get bored trawling thru this joint.
The research sheets/locations we gave you on the thread (& via pm) will offer a heads up to the top & lower tier price drivers or influences. Just keep on top of your reading matter & team them up with your technical structures.
Rather than place yourself at the mercy of attempting to anticipate or front-run price moves, you’d be better served to ensure your observational work offers you the opportunity to plan, prepare & react to the markets rhythm & pulse.
No-one truly knows where or how far the numbers will roll. What you can do however, is structure your game play to execute & manage your positions with a primary focus on your risk model.
That’s the one clear element of your job that can be controlled & managed effectively. Seeking value, whilst managing risk is your main priority. Let the no hopers & gamblers worry bout anticipating & front running.
