FXTechstrategy Team: Forex Analysis

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURUSD: Recovering With Caution.

EURUSD: A second week of upside may have set the tone for further recovery but EUR will have to break and hold above the 1.3387 level to annul its broader downside pressure. While the 1.3387 level remains as resistance, outlook for the pair remains lower with eyes on 1.2993 level. Below here will open the door for a run at the 1.2879 level, its Jan 23’2011 low. On the other hand, the pair will have to break and hold above the 1.3387 level to set the stage for further correction. This will leave the pair targeting the 1.3484 level with a cut through here pushing the pair further higher towards its Dec 02’2011 high at 1.3547. Further out, price extension if seen will aim at its weekly 200 ema at 1.3642. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside though attempting a recovery.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURJPY: Sees Bear Pressure, Extends Weakness

EURJPY- With the cross failing to follow through higher and closing lower the past week, a follow through lower is now seen. This will leave EURJPY weakening further towards the 105.63 level followed by the 104.60 level, its April 2012 low. Further down, support lies at the 103.27 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, EURJPY will have to break and hold above the 107.99 level to reverse its present weakness and bring further recovery towards its key resistance at the 111.42/52 levels. This will resume its broader medium term uptrend. If this occurs, further bullish offensive is expected towards the 112.34 level with a violation of there extending more gains towards the 113.00 and then the 114.14 level, its July 31’2011 high. All in all, EURJPY continues to hold on to its downside vulnerability.

 

[NVP]

Re: EURJPY: Sees Bear Pressure, Extends Weakness

so guys ....in your opinion where will the real profits come from ?

The Rising Yen ?
or
The falling Euro ?

or about evenly balanced moves this week ?

N

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

Dollar Index: Susceptible, Risk Points To The 78.09 level.

US Dollar Index: With continued downside pressure seen, the Index remains vulnerable and looks to return to its key support located at 78.09 level. As long as it continues to hold below the 80.73 level, the above view remains valid with a violation of the 78.09 level turning attention to its Feb 06’2012 low at 78.36 level. A breach of here will turn focus to the 77.97 level and then the 76.71 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the other hand, a break and hold above the 80.73 level will trigger further bullish offensive towards the 81.78 level, its Jan 2012 high. A breather may occur here but if that level breaks, further upside offensive should build up towards the 83.55 level, its Aug’2011 high and possibly higher towards the 84.55 level. All in all, the Index continues to retain its medium term upside bias though vulnerable.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GBPJPY: Hesitates, Remains Vulnerable

GBPJPY – The cross’s upside attempt is now failing and with its broader downside bias remaining intact, further decline is likely. This will turn attention to the 128.76 level with a cut through here calling for a run at the 127.08 level/the 126.53 level thereby annulling its present strength. Further down, support lies at the 125.45 level followed by the 124.50 level and then the 122.02 level, its Jan 25’2012 high. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. The alternative scenario will be for a return above 131.77 level, leaving the cross targeting its big resistance residing at the 133.46 level. A clearance of here will resume its medium term uptrend towards the 135.09 level. Further upside offensive above here will call for a run at 136.97 level. All in all, the cross continues to hold on to its medium term uptrend.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

AUDUSD: Pressure Builds On The 1.0246/24 levels.

AUDUSD: A return to the 1.0246/24 level could be building up as continued weakness is seen. As long as the pair continues to trade below its key resistance at the 1.0456 level, this view remains valid. A violation of the mentioned zone will call for more weakness towards its psycho level at 1.0200 and then the 1.0150 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the other hand, a return above 1.0450/65 levels is required to end its present downside threats. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.0465 level with a break and close above here paving the way for a run at the 1.0556 level and then the 1.0635 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside short term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURUSD: Bear Threats To Target The 1.2993 Level.

EURUSD: As EUR remains vulnerable after ending its recent corrective recovery at the 1.3282 level, further decline is likely. This development leaves the pair aiming at the 1.2993 level. Below here will open the door for a run at the 1.2879 level, its Jan 23’2011 low. As long as the 1.3387 level remains as resistance this view remains intact. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Alternatively, the pair will have to break and hold above the 1.3387 level to end its broader weakness and turn attention to the 1.3484 level. A cut through here will push the pair further higher towards its Dec 02’2011 high at 1.3547. Further out, price extension if seen will aim at its weekly 200 ema at 1.3642. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside medium term

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

Monthly Technical Outlook, May 2012: EURUSD

EURUSD: With the pair’s weakness spilling into May, there is likelihood of further declines as the month progresses. In such a case, the 1.2993 level will come in as the immediate support where a breach will pave the way for a run at 1.2620 level, its Jan 2012 low. A cut through here will set the stage for more declines towards its 200 monthly ema at 1.2536 level where a break will turn attention to its key support at the 1.2192 level. Its monthly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, resistance lies at the 1.3378 level where a violation if seen will call for a move higher towards 1.3484 level. Further out, the 1.3872 level will come in as the next upside target. Overall, EUR remains susceptible to the downside as it looks to weaken further.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

Weekly Technical Strategist: GBPJPY

GBPJPY: Risk Turns Lower On Further Declines.

GBPJPY – Having weakened for a second week in a row, GBPJPY looks to extend further declines in the new week. This will leave the cross targeting its key support located at 127.08 level with a break aiming at the 126.53 level. Further down, support lies at the 125.45 level followed by the 124.50 level and then the 122.02 level, its Jan 25’2012 high. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. On the upside, the cross will have to break and hold above the 131.77 level to halt its present weakness and bring gains towards the 133.46 level. Further out, the 135.09 level comes in as the next resistance where a break will turn focus to the 136.97 level. All in all, the cross remains biased to the downside as it looks to weaken further.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURUSD: Halts Decline, Bullish Momentum Develops.

EURUSD: Bulls may have come in at the 1.2954 level and pushed EUR higher in today’s trading session but the pair continues to hold on to its broader medium term downside. This suggests its present attempt on the upside is corrective and should eventually fade thereby turning the risk lower again. This if seen will open the door for a run at the 1.2954/93 levels where a violation will trigger further declines towards the 1.2879 level, its Jan 23’2011 low and then the 1.2587 level. On the other hand, on continued upside recovery, the pair will aim at the 1.3177 level where a violation will turn focus to the 1.3282 level and then the 1.3387 level. The latter will have to give way to allow the pair to extend further towards the 1.3484 level with a cut through here pushing it further higher towards its Dec 02’2011 high at 1.3547. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside medium term despite attempts at recovery.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GBPUSD: Susceptible, Continues To Face Downside Pressure.

GBPUSD: Though is GBP vulnerable on correction, it continues to hold on to its broader medium term uptrend. As long as it holds above the 1.6059/84 levels and its rising trendline, the above view remains intact. In such a case, the 1.6293 level, its weekly 200 ema will be targeted on ending its present price hesitation followed by the 1.6451 level. On the downside, below the 1.6059 level will have to occur to reverse its medium term upside now on hold. However, the bigger support resides at its trendline and the 1.5642/53 levels, its Feb 14/15’2012 lows where a breach if seen will aim at the 1.5497 level, its Jan 10’2012 high. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the whole, the pair continues to hold on to its medium term uptrend though correcting.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURUSD: Weakens, Eyes Key Support Levels.

EURUSD: With EUR on the verge of reversing its Monday gains, the risk is now building up towards the 1.2930/00 levels. Below here will open the door for a run at the 1.2879 level, its Jan 23’2011 low. As long as the 1.3387 level remains as resistance this view remains intact. A decisive break and hold below the 1.2879 level will pave the way for move lower towards the 1.2733 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Alternatively, the pair will have to break and hold above the 1.3387 level to end its broader weakness and turn attention to the 1.3484 level. A cut through here will push the pair further higher towards its Dec 02’2011 high at 1.3547. Further out, price extension if seen will aim at its weekly 200 ema at 1.3642. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside medium term though facing bear threats.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GBPUSD: Weak And Vulnerable On Correction

GBPUSD: While GBP may be vulnerable to the downside, its broader medium term bias remains higher despite its corrective scenario. As long as it holds above the 1.6059/84 levels and its rising trendline, the above view remains intact. In such a case, the 1.6293 level, its weekly 200 ema will be targeted on ending its present price hesitation followed by the 1.6451 level. On the downside, below the 1.6059 level will have to occur to reverse its medium term upside now on hold. However, the bigger support resides at its trendline and the 1.5642/53 levels, its Feb 14/15’2012 lows where a breach if seen will aim at the 1.5497 level, its Jan 10’2012 high. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the whole, the pair continues to hold on to its medium term uptrend though correcting.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDCHF – Extends Recovery, Closes Higher (Special Focus)

USDCHF: The pair closed higher for a second week in row since triggering a recovery (off 0.9041) as it looks to strengthen further in the new week. However, the warning is its continued price hesitation below its key resistance located at the 0.9331 level. Unless USDCHF breaks and holds above the mentioned resistance, its broader medium term trend will continue to point lower with an eventual return to the 0.8929 level, its Feb 24’2012 low envisaged. Further down, support comes in at the 0.8890 level, its Nov 03’2011 low where a breach will call for further declines towards the 0.8700 level, its psycho level. On the upside, if the pair can breach and maintain above the 0.9331 level, further bull pressure will build up. This will open the door for a run at the 0.9504 level, its Jan 13’2012 low and then the 0.9591 level. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the upside below in the immediate term

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GBPJPY: Bears Remain In Charge, Targets The 127.08 Level.

GBPJPY – Having weakened for a third consecutive week, GBPJPY looks to extend further declines in the new week. This will leave the cross targeting its key support located at 127.08 level with a breach aiming at the 126.53 level, its Mar 06’2012 low. Further down, support comes in at the 125.45 level followed by the 124.50 level and then the 122.02 level, its Jan 25’2012 high. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. On the upside, the cross will have to break and hold above the 131.77 level, its April 25’2012 high to end its present weakness and bring gains towards the 133.46 level. Further out, the 135.09 level comes in as the next resistance where a break will turn focus to the 136.97 level. All in all, the cross remains biased to the downside as it looks to weaken further.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

Daily Technical Strategist: EURUSD

EURUSD: Extends Bearish Momentum, Sets Up For The 1.2733 level

EURUSD: With EUR continuing to weaken on the back of its past week downside pressure, further decline is expected. It is currently seen trading below the 1.2879 level, its Jan 23’2011 low and a continued hold below here will push the pair further lower towards the 1.2733 level, its Jan 18’2012 low. On a violation of this level, the 1.2620 level, its Jan’2012 low will be targeted. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the other hand, the pair will have to break and hold above the 1.3282 level and the 1.3387 level to end its present bear threats and set the stage for further corrective recovery. This will leave the pair targeting the 1.3484 level with a cut through here pushing it further higher towards its Dec 02’2011 high at 1.3547. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside on further weakness.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDCAD: Hesitating With Downside Bias.

USDCAD: We continue to hold onto our downside view on USDCAD as it trades below its key resistance at the 1.0048/51 levels. While holding below here, there is risk of a relapse to the 0.9804 level, its Sept 19’2011 and the 0.9806 level. Further down, support lies at the 0.9779 level, its Sept 16’2011 low followed by the 0.9724 level, its Aug 31'2011 low. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, the pair will have to climb back above the 1.0048/51 levels to annul its broader bearishness and bring further gains towards the 1.0146 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.0250 level and then the.0317 level. All in all, the pair remains vulnerable to the downside on further declines.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

Dollar Index: Rallies, Pressure Builds On Key Resistance.

US Dollar Index: With continued rally seeing the Index strengthening and holding above its broken resistance, it remains biased to the upside towards its key resistance at the 81.78 level, its Jan 2012 high. A clearance of here will set the stage for more strength towards the 83.55 level, its Aug’2011 high and possibly higher targeting the 84.55 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On any pullback, the index will aim at the 80.73 level with a breach turning focus to its Feb 06’2012 low at 78.36 level followed by the 77.97 level and then the 76.71 level. All in all, the Index continues to retain its medium term upside bias.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GBPUSD: Takes Out Key Support, Set To Recapture The 1.5805 Level.

GBPUSD: With the pair selling off and breaking below its medium term rising trendline, further bearishness is expected in the days ahead. On continued weakness, GBP will target the 1.5805 level, April 05’2012 low with a violation of there allowing for more weakness towards the 1.5642/53 levels, its Feb 14/15’2012 lows. A breach of here if seen will aim at the 1.5497 level, its Jan 10’2012 high. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. The alternative scenario is for the pair to halt its weakness and then return above its trendline. This will target the 1.6180 level with a turn above here calling for a run at the 1.6293 level, its weekly 200 ema. Further out, resistance lies at the 1.6451 level. On the whole, the pair continues to hold on to its downside pressure having violated its rising trendline

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GBPJPY: Maintains Its Bearish Momentum.

GBPJPY – With continued downside weakness seen, the cross looks to hold on to its broken support and weaken further. In such a case, its key support standing at the 126.53 level will be targeted on further declines with a cut through here aiming at the 125.45 level followed by the 124.50 level and then the 122.02 level, its Jan 25’2012 high. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. The alternative scenario will be for it to return above 131.77 level, leaving the cross targeting its big resistance residing at the 133.46 level. A clearance of here will resume its medium term uptrend towards the 135.09 level. Further upside offensive above here will call for a run at 136.97 level. All in all, the cross continues to hold on to its short term weakness.