FXTechstrategy Team: Forex Analysis

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GOLD: Looks To Strengthen Further.

GOLD: With Gold halting its weakness and turning higher during Tuesday trading session, the risk is for more upside to continue. This leaves the commodity aiming at further upside towards the 1,450.00 level, its psycho level on ending its present correction. A cut through here will aim at the 1,500.00 level, its psycho level. A cap may occur here and turn it lower but if that fails, more upside will develop towards the 1,550 level. Conversely, support stands at the 1,348 level with a break targeting the 1,300.00 level and then the 1,272.12 level. A turn below here will turn attention to the 1,250.00 level and then the 1,215.00 level. All in all, GOLD remains biased to the upside medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURGBP- Pressure Aims At The 0.8400 Level.

EURGBP- Having maintained its downside pressure, EURGBP looks to recapture its psycho level at the 0.8400 level. A decisive violation of here will aim at the 0.8350 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, EURGBP will have to recapture the 0.8651 level to halt its current weakness and resume its recovery high. This if seen will target the 0.8700 level. Further out, upside objective comes in at the 0.8766 level and then the 0.8800 level. All in all, the cross remains biased to the downside.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GBPUSD: Looks To Strengthen Further.

GBPUSD: The pair is maintaining its bullish offensive leaving it targeting further upside towards the 1.5716 level. A break will aim at the 1.5750 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.5800 level. On the downside, support lies at the 1.5477 level where a reversal of roles as support is likely to occur. Other supports are located at the 1.5400 level followed by the 1.5350 level where we could see bulls come in and turn it higher. Further down, support comes in at 1.5300 level with a turn below here aiming at the 1.5250 level. On the whole, GBP remains biased to the upside as looks to retarget its key resistance at the 1.5716 level.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURUSD: Weak And Vulnerable, Eyes Further Downside

EURUSD: With more weakness seen on Thursday, further declines cannot be ruled out. Support lies at the 1.3100 level where a reversal of roles as support is expected. Further down, support comes in at the 1.3189 level followed by the 1.3000 level where a violation will target the 1.2900 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1.3222 level where a break will aim at the 1.3415 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.3450 level followed by the 1.3500 level and possibly higher towards the 1.3600 level. All in all, EUR continues to retain its downside bias in the short term

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDCHF: Maintains Recovery Tone

USDCHF – With the pair remaining on the offensive for a second week in row, there is risk of further upside towards the 0.9454 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9496 level and then the 0.9750 level with a turn above here shifting attention to the 0.9838 level, its Jun 2013 high. A cut through here will resume its broader medium term bias. Unless we see a failed follow through higher on the back of its past week gains, risk remains higher on correction. Conversely, support lies at the 0.9310 level with a turn below here aiming at the 0.9146 level. Further down, support comes in at the 0.9050 level and then the 0.9000 level. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the upside on corrective recovery following a second week of strength.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURUSD: Faces Corrective Risks.

EURUSD: Though weak and vulnerable following its two-week bear threats, as long as it holds above its rising trendline, a recovery higher is likely. However, on continued weakness, support lies at the 1.3200 level followed by the 1.3136 level with a turn below here shifting focus to the 1.3050 level and then the 1.3000 level. Conversely, a halt in its present weakness could force upside towards the 1.3250 level. Above here will aim at the 1.3451 level. A break through here will set the stage for more strength towards the 1.3500 level with a break resuming its broader upside and turning attention to the 1.3550 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.3600 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the upside though correcting.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GBPUSD: Bullish, Targets Further Upside.

GBPUSD: With GBP bullish and pointing higher, further upside is likely towards the 1.5732 level. A break of here will aim at the 1.5750 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.5800 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, support lies at the 1.5550 level and then the 1.5477 level where a reversal of roles as support is likely to occur. Other supports are located at the 1.5400 level followed by the 1.5350 level where we could see bulls come in and turn it higher. On the whole, GBP is vulnerable on correction

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GBPUSD: Bullish, Targets Further Upside.

GBPUSD: With GBP bullish and pointing higher, further upside is likely towards the 1.5732 level. A break of here will aim at the 1.5750 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.5800 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, support lies at the 1.5550 level and then the 1.5477 level where a reversal of roles as support is likely to occur. Other supports are located at the 1.5400 level followed by the 1.5350 level where we could see bulls come in and turn it higher. On the whole, GBP is vulnerable on correction

 

[elisab]

It will be interesting to see whether the recent movement to strengthen the Aussie is a simple technical rebound (as I believe) or a restart of the Australian currency and then the commodities sector...

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURJPY: Broader Bias Remains Higher.

EURJPY- We continue to maintain our upside bias as the cross continues to hold on to its bullishness. Resistance resides at the 133.00 level. A breach of here will expose the 133.50 level. This zone may hold if tested but if taken out focus will turn to the 134.00 level followed by the 134.81 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Conversely, support lies at the 129.00 level followed by the 127.96 level. Further down, support comes in at the 127.00 level. All in all, the cross remains biased to the upside in the medium term.

 

[elisab]

On these levels I would try the short AudJpy, Ichimoku resistance has been hit.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

AUDUSD: With the pair unable to break and hold above the 0.9305 level and tumbling lower on Wednesday, more weakness is likely in the days ahead. Support lies at the 0.9200 level with a breach of here turning focus to the 0.9100 level followed by the 0.9000 level. Further down, support stands at the 0.8900 level with a break aiming at the 0.8847 level. Below here will resume its broader downside towards the 0.8800 level. Conversely, the pair will have to violate the 0.9220 level and the 0.9317 level to create scope to a return to the 0.9400 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9450 level and then the 0.9500 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside long term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURGBP- Remains Vulnerable To The Downside.

EURGBP- The cross maintains its downside pressure as it is weak and vulnerable. Support stands at the 0.8391 level. Support lies at the 0.8350 level with a decisive violation of here aiming at the 0.8300 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, the cross will have to recapture the 0.8504 level and then the 0.8651 level to halt its current weakness and resume its upside recovery. This if seen will target the 0.8700 level. Further out, upside objective comes in at the 0.8766 level. All in all, the cross remains biased to the downside.

 

[elisab]

Here is a classic example of how the Ichimoku clouds allow us to understand how strong certain trends are. The EurAud example is currently on the supports on which to go long.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDCHF: Recovery Fades, More Weakness Envisaged.

USDCHF – With USDCHF’s two-day recovery higher fading for it to close lower the past week, there is risk of further weakness in the new week. Support comes in at the 0.9200 level with a breach of here turning focus to the 0.9146 level. Further down, support comes in at the 0.9050 level and then the 0.9000 level. On the other hand, the alternative scenarios will be for the pair to retake the 0.9454 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9496 level and then the 0.9750 level with a turn above here shifting attention to the 0.9838 level, its Jun 2013 high. A cut through here will resume its broader medium term bias. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the downside on price failure.

 

[elisab]

EURGBP- Price hesitation has set in after the cross failed to extend its corrective recovery on Tuesday. However, the cross continues to hold on to its recovery tone set from the 0.7761 level. As long as it can hold above the 0.7871 level, it is likely to return above the 0.7961 level. A breach will resume its correction towards its Jun 26’2012 low at 0.7982 level as the next upside target where a reversal of roles could occur and turn the cross lower. However, if this fails, expect further upside offensive towards the 0.8039/93 levels. We expect a back off lower at these levels but if broken, further upside pressure should build up towards the 0.8154 level. On the downside, the risk to its current upside will be a return to the 0.7787 level, its July 30’2012 low. A cut through here will turn focus to the 0.7700 level. Further down, support lies at the 0.7691 level, its Oct 2008 low. Below here could see the cross pushing further lower towards the 0.7594 level. All in all, the cross remains biased to the upside on further recovery risk.

The support of 0.84 has been broken, I think that at this point we are heading towards 0.80.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURUSD: Looks To Extend Gains.

EURUSD: Having halted its weakness and turned higher the past week, more upside is likely in the new week. However, it will have to retake the 1.3415 level to trigger its broader upside towards the 1.3500 level followed by the 1.3600 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Conversely, on a reversal of its current upside it could recapture the 1.3165 level. Below here will aim at the 1.3100 level followed by the 1.3050 level with a turn below here shifting focus to the 1.3000 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the upside.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

AUDUSD: Rallies, Eyes Further Upside.

AUDUSD: With continued upside offensive seeing the pair rallying on Wednesday, the risk is for more strength to occur. Resistance resides at the 0.9550 level with a cut through here opening the door for a run at the 0.9600 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9650 level and then the 0.9700 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Support stands at the 0.9400 level followed by the 0.9317 level where a reversal of roles as support is likely. However, a breach of here will target the 0.9200 level with a break of here turning focus to the 0.9100 level followed by the 0.9000 level. Further down, support stands at the 0.8900 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the upside short term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURUSD: Targets Further Upside.

EURUSD: With EUR maintaining firmly above the 1.3451 level, more strength is likely. This development leaves the pair targeting the 1.3600 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.3550 level followed by the 1.3650 level and possibly higher towards the 1.3700 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Conversely, on a price failure it will target the 1.3456 level followed by the 1.3321 level where a breach will target the 1.3250 level. Further down, support comes in at the 1.3165 level where a breach will aim at the 1.3100 level where a reversal of roles as support is expected. All in all, EUR continues to retain its upside bias in the medium term.

 

[elisab]

EURUSD: Risk Points Lower Below The 1.2442 Level

EURUSD: While EUR remains below the 1.2442 level, risk of a return to the 1.2239 level cannot be ruled out. A clearance of here will set the stage for a move lower towards the 1.2132/17 levels. Further down, support stands at the 1.2040 level where a breach will pave the way for more declines towards the 1.2000 level, its big psycho level. We expect EUR to face price hesitation ahead of or at this level. This could see it back off higher but if that level is breached, the pair should weaken further towards the 1.1950 level. The alternative scenario will be for the pair to return above the 1.2442 level. This will trigger its corrective recovery towards the 1.2482 level, its .618 Fib Ret and then the 1.2500 level. All in all, EUR continues to maintain its broader medium term downside risks though facing recovery threats.

After the break of 1.3450, I think that area 1.38/1.40 represents the ideal point of arrival in this bullish movement.