FXTechstrategy Team: Commodity Analysis

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GOLD: Pulls Back, Backs Off Higher Prices

GOLD: Despite a back off higher prices to close marginally lower the past, GOLD continues to hold on to its broader upside bias. This leaves the commodity aiming at further upside towards the 1,450.00 level, its psycho level on ending its present correction. A cut through here will aim at the 1,500.00 level, its psycho level. A cap may occur here and turn it lower but if that fails, more upside will develop towards the 1,550 level. Conversely, support stands at the 1,348 level with a break targeting the 1,300.00 level and then the 1,272.12 level. A turn below here will turn attention to the 1,250.00 level and then the 1,215.00 level.. All in all, GOLD remains biased to the upside medium term

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GOLD: Halts Weakness, Risk Turns Higher

GOLD: With GOLD closing higher to reverse its previous week gains the past week, further upside offensive is likely in the new week. Further out, resistance resides at the 1,416.00 level, its psycho level. A cut through here will aim at the 1,500.00 level, its psycho level. A cap may occur here and turn it lower but if that fails, more upside will develop towards the 1,550 level. Conversely, support stands at the 1,348 level with a break targeting the 1,300.00 level and then the 1,272.12 level. A turn below here will turn attention to the 1,250.00 level and then the 1,215.00 level. All in all, GOLD remains biased to the upside medium term.

 

[yellowfloyd]

GOLD: With GOLD closing higher to reverse its previous week gains the past week, further upside offensive is likely in the new week. Further out, resistance resides at the 1,416.00 level, its psycho level. A cut through here will aim at the 1,500.00 level, its psycho level. A cap may occur here and turn it lower but if that fails, more upside will develop towards the 1,550 level. Conversely, support stands at the 1,348 level with a break targeting the 1,300.00 level and then the 1,272.12 level. A turn below here will turn attention to the 1,250.00 level and then the 1,215.00 level. All in all, GOLD remains biased to the upside medium term.

I think Gold will be range bound for a while yet while events surrounding Syria unfold. Being a so called ‘safe haven’ investment will benefit from the uncertainty within the market with investors looking to park their money somewhere relatively safe (dare I say that) until the dust settles. Gold has been in a upward channel since end of Jun (3 month) with global events seemingly dictating the direction. I agree that we could see resistance at 1416 and see no reason why if that should be broken then we could see 1480 and then as you say 1500. I think we could see some support at 1370 before your level of 1348, which I agree looks likely to offer some support. We will have to wait and see what the US’s next move regarding Syria will be.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GOLD: Bearish, Sells Off.

GOLD: With continued weakness seeing GOLD violating the 1,348.00 level on Thursday, there is risk of further downside. Support stands at the 1,300.00 level and then the 1,272.12 level. A turn below here will turn attention to the 1,250.00 level and next the 1,215.00 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Conversely, the commodity will have to return above the 1,348.00 level to reduce its downside pressure. This if seen will open the4 door for a run at the 1,433 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1,450.00 level, its psycho level. A cut through here will aim at the 1,500.00 level, its psycho level.. All in all, GOLD remains biased to the downside short term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GOLD: Weak, Vulnerable.

GOLD: The commodity remains vulnerable having followed through lower the past week. Support stands at the 1,300.00 level with a violation targeting the 1,272.12 level. A turn below here will turn attention to the 1,250.00 level and next the 1,215.00 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, the commodity will have to return above the 1,348.00 level to reduce its downside pressure. This if seen will open the4 door for a run at the 1,433 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1,450.00 level, its psycho level. A cut through here will aim at the 1,500.00 level, its psycho level.. All in all, GOLD remains biased to the downside short term.

 

[Liquid validity]

Until the Chinese reveal 4000-6000 tonnes in reserves.
When that happens is anyone's guess, no way is it still 1000T.
That may cause some action in gold, although its fair to say
that could be next week or in a couple of years...

All the same, with that elephant in the room, I wouldn't want
to be shorting gold...

 

[yellowfloyd]

Until the Chinese reveal 4000-6000 tonnes in reserves.
When that happens is anyone's guess, no way is it still 1000T.
That may cause some action in gold, although its fair to say
that could be next week or in a couple of years...

All the same, with that elephant in the room, I wouldn't want
to be shorting gold...

I agree with you to a point about being short gold, however I think I really does depend on what type of trader you are. I for one am a day trader and think that there are so cracking opportunities to make a few quid on the downside on gold. Maybe if you look at the longer view, china’s growth and the political uncertainly around the world then yes I think it could be a big risk being short gold but very short term it’s throwing up some good trades.

 

[Liquid validity]

I agree with you to a point about being short gold, however I think I really does depend on what type of trader you are. I for one am a day trader and think that there are so cracking opportunities to make a few quid on the downside on gold. Maybe if you look at the longer view, china’s growth and the political uncertainly around the world then yes I think it could be a big risk being short gold but very short term it’s throwing up some good trades.

Yeah fair enough and true.
Its worth noting that when (not if) chinese gold reserves
are made public, price will spike...
It would take a massive amount of manipulation to avoid that.
Although the FED does have the motive and means to do so.

Some interesting points about Chinese gold imports / production and reserves:
http://www.gold.org/government_affairs/gold_reserves/
http://investorintel.com/potash-pho...sh-canadian-miner-buys-into-aussie-phosphate/
http://www.arabianmoney.net/gold-si...s-of-5000-tonnes-next-year-says-jim-rickards/
http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2013/07/22/china-working-quietly-to-buy-up-gold/
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/Prepare-for-a-new-gold-standard-30212197.html
http://goldsilverworlds.com/gold-silver-insights/does-china-plan-a-gold-backed-renminbi/
http://www.globalomen.com/internationalnews?entry_id=2246&language=en

Evidence of CB's reducing USD reserves:
http://www.gold.org/download/pub_archive/pdf/Central_bank_diversification_strategies_paper.pdf

So yeah, China showing its cards is probably not going to happen tomorrow.
Highly likely within a year, definitely within 2 years.
So worth bearing in mind...thats not a freight train I would want to stand in front of.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GOLD: Targets Further Upside On Rally.

GOLD: The commodity has halted its weakness rallying strongly on Wednesday and following through higher in Thursday’s trading session. If it follows through higher, we could see GOLD recapture the 1,399.79 level. A cut through here will open the door for a run at the 1,433 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1,450.00 level, its psycho level with a breach targeting the 1,500.00 level, its psycho level. Conversely, support stands at the 1,291.12 level with a violation aiming at the 1,250.00 level. A turn below here will turn attention to the 1,215.00 level and next the 1,180.00 level. All in all, GOLD remains biased to the upside medium term.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Gold chart looks tight ATM

Now would be a good time to buy IMO. Profits taking, positions reloading, shorts covering. EUR and USD about to reverse bearish. Money will find its' way into gold. The technical position is pristine. Check the momentum.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

It's looking good now.

Huge profits taken, people will be buying back. I don't expect big money will be passing up on such a great opportunity.

Gold chart looks gold.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

GOLD: The commodity has halted its weakness rallying strongly on Wednesday and following through higher in Thursday’s trading session. If it follows through higher, we could see GOLD recapture the 1,399.79 level. A cut through here will open the door for a run at the 1,433 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1,450.00 level, its psycho level with a breach targeting the 1,500.00 level, its psycho level. Conversely, support stands at the 1,291.12 level with a violation aiming at the 1,250.00 level. A turn below here will turn attention to the 1,215.00 level and next the 1,180.00 level. All in all, GOLD remains biased to the upside medium term.

Of course profits were taken before the week closed, gold is likely to churn up from here slowly through the week as the American stock market reacts to FED continuing its' policy by moving upwards.

Then the market will take profits considering the price, gold could break out in a very strong move past $1,400.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

CRUDE OIL: Bearish, Sets Up To Weaken Further.

CRUDE OIL: The commodity continues to weaken, leaving the risk of further downside expected in the new week. Support lies at the 102.00 level followed by the 101.00 level. A violation of here will aim at the 100.00 level and then the 99.00 level, its key psycho level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Resistance is seen at the 104.00 level followed by the 105.50 level where a violation will aim at the 106.50 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 108.00 level with a cut through targeting the 100.00 level. All in all, Crude Oil remains biased to the downside

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GOLD: Weak, Remains Vulnerable.

GOLD: With the commodity unable to create a clear directional move, its preceding trend continues to dominate. Support lies at the 1,291.12 level. A violation of here will aim at the 1,250.00 level. A turn below here will turn attention to the 1,215.00 level and next the 1,180.00 level. Conversely, resistance lies at the 1,399.79 level. A cut through here will open the door for a run at the 1,433 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1,450.00 level, its psycho level with a breach targeting the 1,500.00 level, its psycho level. All in all, GOLD remains biased to the downside on pullbacks.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GOLD: Sees Further Bearishness.

GOLD: The commodity broke lower today leaving the risk of further downside on the cards. The threat is for more weakness to occur towards the 1,272.00 level. A violation of this level will aim at the 1,250.00 level with a turn below here shifting attention to the 1,215.00 level and next the 1,180.00 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further downside. Conversely, resistance lies at the 1,329 level where a breach will target the 1,399.79 level. A cut through here will open the door for a run at the 1,433 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1,450.00 level, its psycho level. All in all, GOLD remains biased to the downside.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GOLD: Bearish, Looks To Weaken Further.

GOLD: With the commodity bearish and pointing lower, further downside pressure is likely. The threat is for more weakness to occur on breaking below that level possibly towards the 1,250.00 level. A turn below here will shift attention to the 1,215.00 level and next the 1,180.00 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further downside. Conversely, resistance lies at the 1,329 level where a breach will target the 1,399.79 level. A cut through here will open the door for a run at the 1,433 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1,450.00 level, its psycho level. All in all, GOLD remains biased to the downside.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Gold looks attractive for this week. It gapped up and has been holding strong and grinding upwards.

Does anyone else see what I see in gold for this week? I think there's a pretty good chance we break $1,300 before the weekend. I think below that is a strong buy zone.

 

[new_trader]

B.S Forecasts!

Another schizophrenic GOLD forecast from FXTechstrategy Team!


Like some other schizophrenic, hit and miss, stab in the dark members in this forum keep doing, if you throw enough GOLD forecasts out there one of them will eventually be right!

GOLD: With the commodity unable to create a clear directional move, its preceding trend continues to dominate. Support lies at the 1,291.12 level. A violation of here will aim at the 1,250.00 level. A turn below here will turn attention to the 1,215.00 level and next the 1,180.00 level. Conversely, resistance lies at the 1,399.79 level. A cut through here will open the door for a run at the 1,433 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1,450.00 level, its psycho level with a breach targeting the 1,500.00 level, its psycho level. All in all, GOLD remains biased to the downside on pullbacks.

GOLD: The commodity has halted its weakness rallying strongly on Wednesday and following through higher in Thursday’s trading session. If it follows through higher, we could see GOLD recapture the 1,399.79 level. A cut through here will open the door for a run at the 1,433 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1,450.00 level, its psycho level with a breach targeting the 1,500.00 level, its psycho level. Conversely, support stands at the 1,291.12 level with a violation aiming at the 1,250.00 level. A turn below here will turn attention to the 1,215.00 level and next the 1,180.00 level. All in all, GOLD remains biased to the upside medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GOLD: On Recovery Threats

GOLD: GOLD triggered a recovery higher the past week leaving room for more upside in the new week. However, it will have to overcome the 1,329 level to extend its upside. A failure for this to occur could mean a return to the downside with eyes on the 1,240.00 level with a turn below here shifting attention to the 1,215.00 level and next the 1,180.00 level. Conversely, resistance lies at the 1,329 level where a breach will target the 1,399.79 level. A cut through here will open the door for a run at the 1,433 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1,450.00 level, its psycho level. All in all, GOLD remains biased to the downside though correcting higher.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

CRUDE OIL: Broader Bias Remains Lower.

CRUDE OIL: Despite its Thursday flat close, Crude Oil remains biased to the downside medium term. This leaves the risk of a return to the 95.95 level. A breach of here will turn attention to the 95.00 level followed by the 94.00 level and then the 93.00 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further downside. Resistance is seen at the 98.29 level where a violation will aim at the 100.00 level followed by the 101.00 level where a breach will aim at the 101.50 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 102.00 level with a cut through here turning attention to the 103.00 level. All in all, Crude Oil remains biased to the downside in the medium term.