Best Thread FXCM/DailyFX Signals and Strategies

[Jason Rogers]

All Eyes On FOMC for the Most Significant Rate Decision In Years

In his article today on DailyFX.com, currency analyst James Stanley talks about the much-awaited September FOMC meeting. Below are some highlights:

S&P 500 moving into symmetrical wedge as we near FOMC

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Summary:

• Global stocks begin to stabilize ahead of FOMC, as volatility levels are on the rise to reflect the tumult of the past 3 weeks.
• Risk trends have aligned with the ‘risk on’ or ‘risk off’ themes based around global economic weakness.
• More attractive markets may currently be seen in long USD against emerging market currencies from Mexico or South Africa.

USD/MXN now trading at support with an attractive risk-reward ratio

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

 

[Jason Rogers]

Webinar: FOMC Setups We’ll be Trading as Yellen Takes Center Stage

Talking Points

• Weekly DailyFX Scalp Webinar archive covering featured setups
• Updated targets & invalidation levels
• Visit the Economic Calendar on DailyFX.com to see the event risk on tap this week

 

[Jason Rogers]

Critical Price Levels Ahead of Fed Decision

Below are the key price levels for the Euro and Yen identified by quantitative strategist David Rodriguez in his Weekly Volume at Price report on DailyFX.com

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EUR/USD
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

The Euro trades above key price and volume-based congestion levels at $1.12, and a hold above said level leaves near-term focus on a comparable price ceiling near $1.14. Extraordinarily choppy market conditions have nonetheless made it difficult to sustain a meaningful trading bias. We’ll watch for any major breakouts in either direction given the near-guarantee of major FX market moves in the days ahead.

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USD/JPY
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

The US Dollar continues to hold substantial volume-based support versus the Japanese Yen near the ¥119 mark, and indeed traders seem content to keep it in a narrow trading range ahead of the highly-anticipated US Federal Reserve interest rate decision on September 17. Near-term resistance remains the recent reaction high of ¥121.60. A break above sees little in the way of substantial resistance until considerable volume-based congestion near ¥123.50.

 

[Jason Rogers]

FOMC Scenario Analysis for Dollar and Equity Markets

According to the September Fed Funds futures contract, the market is pricing in little probability of a hike by the central bank at Thursday's meeting. That discount likely takes some of the pain out of a dovish outcome for the Dollar.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

However, it also leverages the 'surprise' of a hike and could drive the currency back to fresh 12-year highs. John Kicklighter analyzes possible FOMC-related scenarios for the Dollar and equity markets in today's strategy video on DailyFX.com

 

[Jason Rogers]

SSI Snapshots of Retail Positioning Heading into FOMC

Below are the latest readings from our SSI Snapshots indicator heading into this afternoon's all important FOMC rate decision.

The Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) is a contrarian indicator which means if retail traders are net short a given currency pair (like they are for EUR/USD with 1.5499 short positions for each long) then that is a bullish indicator for EUR/USD.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Given the strong market moving implications of the FOMC announcement, these SSI Snapshots can be used to anticipate how much follow through a given market reaction may have to the announcement.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

For example, in the immediate aftermath of the FOMC release, if EUR/USD starts to move up, then it's possible such a move may have more follow through, since traders will have to cover their short positions. By contrast, a move downwards in EUR/USD may be muted or quickly reversed as traders who are already short take profits.

 

[Jason Rogers]

EUR/USD Post-Fed Weakness Favored as Bullish Formations Unravel

Talking Points:

• EUR/USD Weakness Persists Ahead of ECB Rhetoric, Slowing PMI’s.
• USD/JPY Bearish RSI Momentum Remains in Focus Amid Bets for Additional BoJ Easing.
• USDOLLAR Continues to Carve Bearish Formation Following Cautious Fed.

 

[leemo]

Jason,
Where can I access archived webinars?

 

[Jason Rogers]

Jason,
Where can I access archived webinars?

Hi Leemo,

You can view past DailyFX webinars on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/user/DailyFXNews/

 

[Jason Rogers]

EUR/USD Monthly Open Range in Focus Following ECB Rhetoric

Talking Points:

• EUR/USD Preserves Long-Term RSI Formation Even as ECB Endorses Dovish Outlook.
• NZD/USD Fails to Retain Monthly-Opening Range Ahead of New Zealand Trade Report.
• USDOLLAR Clears Topside Targets & Eyes September High Ahead of Durable Goods Orders.

 

[Jason Rogers]

British Pound Forecast to hit Further Lows

Retail forex traders remain aggressively long the British Pound versus the US Dollar, and a contrarian view of crowd sentiment leads us to believe that a test of key GBP/USD lows remains likely.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

The number of open long positions outnumber those short by 2.4 to 1; 71% of open positions are long.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

 

[Jason Rogers]

GBP/USD - May Low on the Radar Ahead of BoE Carney Speech

Talking Points

• GBP/USD Eyes May Low (1.5088) Ahead of BoE Governor Carney’s Speech.
• Euro September Opening-Range Remains in Focus Ahead of Slowing Euro-Zone CPI.
• USDOLLAR Holds Previous Day’s Range Despite Upbeat Consumer Confidence.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Technical Focus on Crude Oil

Talking Points

• Crude oil breaks resistance
• Watch for support near $47 per barrel
• Visit DailyFX.com for more analysis and trade setups

 

[Jason Rogers]

The DAX is Dancing on a Trend-Line of Disaster

As you can see in the chart below taken from James Stanley's article on DailyFX.com, the past year has brought on two very different trends into German equities; as a breakneck up-trend was quickly began to fade out of the market after setting a new all-time high at 12,398.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

This top provided a 48.5% movement higher in less than 6 months from the lows set on October 16th of last year. And since then, we’ve seen another trend develop, this time in the opposite direction, that’s seen -19.4% of the indexes value evaporate in the past six months.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Should the near-term weakness that’s been seen in the DAX continue to develop into even more economic pain, and should Central Bankers, led by the Fed, fail to provide support to global risk trends, the DAX may have more pain in its future. The October 2014 low could provide a very adequate near-term target at 8,351, and that’s ~16% off of current levels.

 

[Jason Rogers]

USD/JPY – Japanese Yen Eyes Gains versus the US Dollar

The US dollar finds itself on increasingly shaky footing as the retail crowd takes on more long USD exposure.

Latest Readings from the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI)

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

The Japanese yen eyes gains versus the US dollar. The ratio of long to short positions in the USD/JPY stands at 2.28 as 70% of traders are long.

Weekly Summary of Forex Trader Sentiment and Changes in Positioning

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Yesterday the ratio was 1.98; 66% of open positions were long. Long positions are 5.4% higher than yesterday, and short positions are 8.5% lower than yesterday.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

SSI is a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the USD/JPY may continue lower.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Webinar: USD Weakness Targets Key Support- Comm Bloc Overstretched?

Talking Points

• Weekly DailyFX Scalp Webinar archive covering featured setups
• Updated targets & invalidation levels
• See the Economic Calendar on DailyFX.com for event risk on tap this week[/URL]
  
  

 

[Jason Rogers]

EUR/GBP short trade setup

DailyFX chief currency strategist John Kicklighter tweeted this chart setup today:

"Started a short in $EURGBP with 100 pip stop. If it confirms a turn, I'll build it up. Details in trading video"

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

To get the latest updates on all his trading ideas, you can follow John Kicklighter on Twitter @JohnKicklighter

 

[prabhanshuraman]

DailyFX chief currency strategist John Kicklighter tweeted this chart setup today:

"Started a short in $EURGBP with 100 pip stop. If it confirms a turn, I'll build it up. Details in trading video"
​

For me as well EURGBP is one of short candidate but it need to close below 0.74431 on day basis for 0.73148 and 0.71500. Stop wud be day close above 0.74431 after sell trigger​

 

[Jason Rogers]

Oil Set To Gush on Break of 200 DMA

Today in his article on DailyFX.com, forex trading instructor Tyler Yell discusses the following talking points:

• Crude Oil Technical Strategy: Setting Up For Breakout
• WTI / Crude Oil Holding RSI(5) Support at 40 Into Support
• Support (Daily Close Basis) Focus $45.65-$46.15

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

 

[Jason Rogers]

For me as well EURGBP is one of short candidate but it need to close below 0.74431 on day basis for 0.73148 and 0.71500. Stop wud be day close above 0.74431 after sell trigger

Did you end up entering that short EUR/GBP trade?

 

[Jason Rogers]

Retail Crowd Positioning Shifts Keep Focus on US Dollar Downside

Below is an excerpt from Christopher Vecchio's weekly update on the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) on DailyFX.com:

The retail crowd’s shift into heavier net-long US Dollar positions last week coincided with the start of the next leg lower across the USD-complex.

Weekly Summary of Forex Trader Sentiment and Changes in Positioning

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

With these small speculators continuing to add to net-long US Dollar positions amid weakness, we still prefer to fade the crowd’s recent positioning shifts. As such, further declines in various USD-pairs in the days ahead seems like the likely outcome.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 2.79 as 74% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 2.63; 72% of open positions were long. Long positions are 3.2% higher than yesterday and 10.5% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 2.9% lower than yesterday and 9.7% below levels seen last week.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the USDJPY may continue lower. The trading crowd has grown further net-long from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bearish trading bias.