Best Thread FXCM/DailyFX Signals and Strategies

[Jason Rogers]

Forex Technical Focus 2/24/2015

• USDOLLAR finds slope resistance
• Look to USDJPY for a bearish opportunity

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fre1vUx3NyQ

 

[Jason Rogers]

Strategy Video: When and How Will the Dollar Break its Congestion

 

[Jason Rogers]

Scalping AUD/USD Opening Range Break- 7850 Support

AUD/USD Daily

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

• AUD/USD breaks weekly/monthly opening range
• Now testing confluence resistance into the 79-handle
• Breach targets objectives at 7938 / September TL & 8022/38

Full scalping report by Currency Strategist Michael Boutros on DailyFX.com

 

[Jason Rogers]

EUR/USD Range and SSI Positioning

EUR/USD appears to have broken below it's month-long range and at the same time SSI is very close to flipping from net short to net long:

Past performance is not indicative of future results​

SSI Real-Time Positioning Data for EUR/USD

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You can view real-time SSI positioning data in DailyFX on Demand. Access to DailyFX on Demand is now free for a limited time during the 2015 FXCM Open House.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Sharp Shift in Sentiment Warns of British Pound Weakness

The Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) is reported Every Thursday at DailyFX.com and twice every trading day at DailyFXplus.com

The ratio of long to short positions in the GBP/USD stands at 1.67 as 63% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 1.21; 55% of open positions were long. Long positions are 12.5% higher than yesterday and 15.2% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 18.3% lower than yesterday and 16.6% below levels seen last week.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the GBP/USD may continue lower. The trading crowd has grown further net-long from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bearish trading bias.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Big Week Next Week - Forex Calendar

With only a little over an hour left until the close of trading for this week, here's what you can look forward to next week...NFP, 4 central bank rate decisions and more!

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Don't forget to take advantage of the 2015 FXCM Open House before it ends.

 

[kalott]

USD and EURUSD

 

[Jason Rogers]

Flip in Sentiment Points to Possible Top in USD/CAD

The Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) for USD/CAD just flipped from net short to net long. Since SSI is a contrarian indicator, this points to a possible top in the pair.

You can view real-time SSI positioning data in DailyFX on Demand. Access to DailyFX on Demand is now free for a limited time during the 2015 FXCM Open House.

 

[Jason Rogers]

EUR/USD Drops to 11-Year Low

EUR/USD has dropped below the 1.1100 level to a new 11-year low! The DailyFX Support & Resistance Wizard sees the next significant support level at 1.0970

*Past performance is not indicative of future results​

The DailyFX Support & Resistance Wizard automatically adds the DailyFX list of support and resistance levels directly to your charts which can also help you identify trading breakouts.

DailyFX strategist James Stanley is hosting a webinar today at 1pm ET (18:00 GMT) discussing the use of the support/resistance wizard to search for breakouts and also how to access the wizard free for a limited time during the 2015 FXCM Open House which will soon come to an end. Webinar: Trading Breakouts - Support and Resistance identification

 

[Jason Rogers]

Strategy Video: This ECB Decision is Important to EUR/USD's Drive to Parity

In his latest strategy video, DailyFX Chief Currency Strategist John Kicklighter discusses the importance of the upcoming ECB rate decision and it's potential impact on markets.


Talking Points:
• The ECB announced its QE program at its January meeting, but details were saved for this meeting
• A fresh 11-year low from EUR/USD Wednesday and jump in implied volatility shows this still moves markets
• This event is critical to the steady bearish trend on the Euro and EUR/USD

www.youtube.com/watch?v=f-yevuuLwls​

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

DailyFX analysts, instructors and strategists cover economic announcements, data prints and price movements as they happen in the Ultimate Trading Room at DailyFX on Demand which is now free for a limited time during the 2015 FXCM Open House.

 

[Jason Rogers]

EUR/USD Dips Below 1.1000

The Euro losses continue to mount as EUR/USD drops below 1.1000 for the first time since 2003! Looking at the monthly candlestick chart for the past 15 years, one wonders how low this may drop.

According to the weekly SSI report from DailyFX strategist David Rodriguez, positioning data indicates the Euro downtrend remains intact.

EURUSDThe ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.12 as 53% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 1.38; 58% of open positions were long. Long positions are 7.7% lower than yesterday and 19.6% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 14.4% higher than yesterday and 17.1% above levels seen last week. Open interest is 1.6% higher than yesterday and 10.9% above its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the EURUSD may continue lower. The trading crowd has grown less net-long from yesterday but further long since last week.​

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Trader indecision makes it difficult to establish a firm trading bias, but the overall downtrend keeps our attention lower in the EURUSD.​

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Click http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/techni...5/ssi_eur-usd.html?CMP=SFS-70160000000NbT3AAK for the full report​

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[Jason Rogers]

Trading Hours for Start of Daylight Savings Time in the US

Hi Everyone,

Daylight Savings Time will start in the US on Sunday, March 8th. That means the trading hours for indices, metals and energy products that follow US market times will shift by one hour starting next week. I've highlighted the changes below in red.

Forex Trading Hours

In terms of New York Time, the trading desk will still open at 5pm on Sunday and close at 5pm on Friday as always. However, since New York Time will shift this weekend from GMT-5 to GMT-4, the trading desk hours will also shift by one hour in GMT terms. Starting next week, the trading desk will open at 21:00 GMT on Sunday and close at 21:00 GMT on Friday.​

A special note for all MT4 clients on our New York Close servers

The time zone on our New York Close MT4 servers will change this weekend from GMT+2 to GMT+3. In this way, midnight on your MT4 charts will stay in line with the 5pm New York Close. If you have any EAs or indicators that use a GMT offset, please update them to GMT+3 this weekend.​

 

[Jason Rogers]

StrongWeak signals point to GBP/CHF weakness

The StrongWeak* standalone app provides an easy-to-read interface showing the strongest and weakest major currency movers. It aggregates movements (gains and losses) of a base currency against all other major currencies. (Ex: If EUR/USD rose 50 pips yesterday, then EUR reads +50 and USD reads -50). This is calculated across all major pairs.

The app also shows the absolute strongest and weakest currencies for four timeframes (M15, H1, H4, D1) and shows the related currency pair. The latest readings show that CHF is currently the weakest currency and that GBP/CHF is the weakest pair on both hourly and daily charts.

* For a limited time, StrongWeak is free to download at FXCMapps.com as part of FXCM Open House 2015. The DailyFX analysts will be hosting a webinar this Tuesday at 10am New York Timethat will discuss how to analyze trading opportunities using this app.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Video: What are the Best Dollar, Euro and Risk Alternative Trend Setups?

In his latest video, DailyFX Chief Currency Strategist John Kicklighter discusses the following:

Talking Points
• Analysis brings us to the highest probability trading scenarios, but sometimes markets surprise
• It's important to be prepared for a change in market conditions with strong 'alternative scenario' trades
• We look at trends of various conviction - risk, Euro and Dollar - and assess best alternatives

DailyFX analysts, instructors and strategists cover economic announcements, data prints and price movements as they happen in the Ultimate Trading Room at DailyFX on Demand which is free for a limited time during FXCM Open House 2015.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Euro at Potential Turning Point Ahead of FOMC Meeting

According to the latest Forex Correlations report by Quantitative Strategist David Rodriguez on DailyFX.com, "Retail FX Traders have Turned Heavily Short the Euro—A Contrarian Signal that Price has Turned

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

"The risk of material volatility grows ahead of the highly-anticipated FOMC meeting for a clear reason: the correlation between the Euro, US Dollar, and interest rates trades near important highs."

Strong Link between European Yields, US Treasury Yields, and EURUSD Underlines Risk

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

 

[Jason Rogers]

Dollar Volumes Surge Post FOMC

We've seen incredible moves in the EUR/USD following the FOMC rate decision/press conference, and retail volume at FXCM for EUR/USD has hit its highest level for a 4-hour period since at least 2010 with over 5.5 billion traded!

Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Each bar measures actual trading volume during a 4-hour period and you can find this real volume indicator in FXCM's Trading Station platform.

DailyFX strategist John Kicklighter takes a closer look at the EUR/USD surge and whether this is a correction or a trend change.

 

[kalott]

According to the latest Forex Correlations report by Quantitative Strategist David Rodriguez on DailyFX.com, "Retail FX Traders have Turned Heavily Short the Euro—A Contrarian Signal that Price has Turned

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

"The risk of material volatility grows ahead of the highly-anticipated FOMC meeting for a clear reason: the correlation between the Euro, US Dollar, and interest rates trades near important highs."

Strong Link between European Yields, US Treasury Yields, and EURUSD Underlines Risk

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

""Retail FX Traders have Turned Heavily Short the Euro—A Contrarian Signal that Price has Turned"

 

[Jason Rogers]

""Retail FX Traders have Turned Heavily Short the Euro—A Contrarian Signal that Price has Turned"

That was quite the turn. It looks like positioning has eased back somewhat, but overall still net short during the retracement.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.​

 

[Jason Rogers]

USDOLLAR Index Tests EMA Supporting Rally Since July 2014

Key talking points from today's strategy video from DailyFX strategist Christopher Vecchio:

- Daily 34-EMA in USDOLLAR Index has supported rally since July.
- EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD all at crucial turning points.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Australian Dollar Pairs Lean on Serious Support at the Same Time

Talking Points:
• Persistent selling in Aussie Dollar has pushed AUDUSD and AUDJPY to extreme 7-straight day declines
• With the extended tumble, the traditional fundamental drivers don't seem to lend the same intensity
• After mature moves and questionable fundamental motivation, many of AUD crosses are facing major support