Best Thread FXCM/DailyFX Signals and Strategies

[Jason Rogers]

US Dollar Drops as September NFPs Miss - EUR/USD Hits Fresh 2013 High

Yesterday, Quantitative Strategist David Rodriguez said that his "preference is to use the sentiment-based trading strategies available on DailyFX PLUS to trade the US Dollar lower until further notice."

For example, the Momentum 2 strategy is currently giving a signal to buy EUR/USD with a trailing stop at 1.3532.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Today's release of the Non Farm Payrolls data for September has turned out to be a catalyst for driving the US dollar lower and sending EUR/USD to its highest levels since 2011.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

The pair is up over 100 pips since the announcement as are the DailyFX PLUS Momentum2 trading signals from yesterday saying to go long the Euro, the British Pound and the Australian dollar versus the US Dollar.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Note that the window to enter these trades has already passed as indicated by the "Hold" status in the Action column above. DailyFX PLUS trading signals are available as automated strategies on the Mirror Trader platform.

 

[Jason Rogers]

VIDEO: Trading the Dollar Downtrend with Sentiment-Based Strategies

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 

[Jason Rogers]

US Dollar: How Low Can it Go?

According the weekly update of the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) just released on DailyFX.com, the US Dollar looks to be at major risk of further declines versus the Japanese Yen. That's because not only are retail traders still net long USD/JPY, their net long positioning has actually grown more extreme since last week.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Since SSI is a contrarian indicator, that's a strong bullish signal for JPY. On the other hand, traders have reduced their short positioning in AUD/USD significantly. That could indicate that the US Dollar might have set an important bottom versus the Australian Dollar.

Weekly Summary of Forex Trader Sentiment and Changes in Positioning

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

It's no surprise then that the sentiment-based trading strategies on DailyFX PLUS are currently giving signals to short AUD/JPY. In particular, the Momentum2 strategy is giving a signal to short the pair at current levels with a trailing stop at 94.8307.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

DailyFX PLUS trading signals are available as automated strategies on the Mirror Trader platform.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Range Trading GBP/USD

Senior Technical Strategist Jamie Saettele tweeted this morning about a range trading setup for GBP/USD:

"This month, GBP/USD has traded from 1.6259 to 1.5893 and back to 1.6255. Sounds like a range to me!"​

He added these further details in his article on DailyFX.com:

"Exceeding the 10/1 high (1.6259-which is pips from the 1/2 close of 1.6252) still faces the January high (first trading day of the year in fact) at 1.6380.

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

"GBPUSD has yet to confirm the EURUSD high. This market may very well remain within a range. With a high in place on 10/1, I am bearish for a return to the near term range lows (1.5950s) and maybe more."​

To always get his latest trade ideas, you can follow Jamie Saettele on Twitter @JamieSaettele

 

[Jason Rogers]

Australian Dollar Tags 200-Day Simple Moving Average

The AUD/USD pair found strong resistance at the 200-Day Simple Moving Average.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Jeremy Wagner, Head Forex Trading Instructor at DailyFX, had this to say regarding the Aussie:

"Now that equities are near the top of their ranges, there is an increased probability of a dip to modestly lower levels. If the stock markets shift sideways to lower in the range, we can reasonably expect the Aussie to move lower. Therefore, the trading opportunity is to sell the Australian Dollar currency basket."

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

In addition to the AUD currency basket, the Mirror Trader platform offers a variety of other Currency Baskets, including USD, EUR, GBP and JPY, as well as baskets designed to take advantage of interest rate differentials.

 

[Jason Rogers]

FOMC Meeting Critical as Euro/Dollar Correlation to Yields Surges

EUR/USD jumped about 40 pips on ECB Vice President Ewald Nowotny's comment that there is no realistic prospect of a rate cut for the Euro.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

DailyFX Quantitative Strategist David Rodriguez tweeted the following chart showing the strong correlation between EUR/USD and the net interest rate outlook of the ECB versus the Fed. This highlights the importance of the upcoming FOMC meeting.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

A Dollar-positive reaction seems unlikely as FOMC officials will almost definitely keep current QE purchases unchanged; disappointing September Nonfarm payrolls data and the negative economic effects of the US government shutdown will keep the Fed's bias towards easing through the foreseeable future.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Both the Breakout2 and Momentum2 strategies on DailyFX PLUS are currently giving signals to buy EUR/USD. DailyFX PLUS Trading Signals can be automated on your FXCM account with the Mirror Trader platform. You can use your Trading Station username and password to log into Mirror Trader.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

 

[Jason Rogers]

FOMC: Dollar May Trade Higher on Potentially Big Sentiment Shift

For the past few weeks, DailyFX Quantitative Strategist David Rodriguez has written about how the US Dollar was likely to fall to fresh lows against the Euro as the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) indicated that crowds were their most short EUR/USD on record. Over this time, EUR/USD has reached its highest levels since 2011.

Past performance is indicative of future results.​

However, today Rodriguez called attention to the fact that the sentiment-based Momentum2 strategy on DailyFX PLUS has now gone in the opposite direction. This could represent an important turning point for the US currency.

Past performance is indicative of future results.​

Momentum2 is a trend trading strategy that aims to catch shifts in trend using trader sentiment as an indicator. The strategy looks to buy when SSI reaches its lowest value for the past 145 trading hours, and looks to short when it reaches its highest value for the past 145 trading hours.

Past performance is indicative of future results.​

The strategy is giving a signal to short GBP/USD because SSI hit its most extreme positive level for the past 145 trading hours, which suggests that the GBP/USD could be trending downwards. The trailing stop loss has been set at 1.61467.

Past performance is indicative of future results.​

Momentum2 is available as an automated strategy on the Mirror Trader platform.

Past performance is indicative of future results.​

FXCM account holders can use their Trading Station username and password to log into Mirror Trader.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Sharp US Dollar Reversal Looks like the Start of a Larger Rally

Here's an update on the Momentum2 trading signal to short GBP/USD from yesterday.

Rodriguez called attention to the fact that the sentiment-based Momentum2 strategy on DailyFX PLUS has now gone in the opposite direction. This could represent an important turning point for the US currency.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

The weekly update from the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) that was posted on DailyFX.com adds further confirmation that the US Dollar may have set a lasting bottom versus the Euro, Australian Dollar, and British Pound.

Weekly Summary of Forex Trader Sentiment and Changes in Positioning

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

It shows that traders have dramatically reduced their long dollar positions against these major currencies. Since SSI is a contrarian indicator, this shift in sentiment could be a sign of further US Dollar gains to come.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

The fact that that the SSI-based Momentum2 strategy on DailyFX PLUS has now sold EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD serves as early confirmation of a potentially lasting Dollar bounce.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Momentum2 is available as an automated strategy on the Mirror Trader. FXCM account holders can use their Trading Station username and password to log into Mirror Trader.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Pound Joins Euro Slide, Drops Against US Dollar

Another update on the GBP/USD short position entered by the Momentum2 strategy on Mirror Trader earlier this week:

Momentum2 is a trend trading strategy that aims to catch shifts in trend using trader sentiment as an indicator. The strategy looks to buy when SSI reaches its lowest value for the past 145 trading hours, and looks to short when it reaches its highest value for the past 145 trading hours.

The strategy is giving a signal to short GBP/USD because SSI hit its most extreme positive level for the past 145 trading hours, which suggests that the GBP/USD could be trending downwards. The trailing stop loss has been set at 1.61467.

The trade is now floating a 100+ pip profit, but is nearing a the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.59184 for the lows set back in July. It's possible the pair might find some support here as it did in mid-October.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

While it may be prudent to take some partial profits here, there are reasons to leave the rest of the position open with the trailling stop which has since moved down to 1.60333.

Instraday Price Perspective from Strong/Weak app

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

In particular, the Strong/Weak app shows that the British Pound has been underperforming noticeably on short-term time frames (m15, H1) after this morning's data even more than the Euro.This could be a sign that a more significant technical breakdown may be beginning.

 

[Jason Rogers]

SSI: Dollar Long Interest Pulls Back Further to Start Week's Trading

Another update on the GBP/USD short position entered by the Momentum2 strategy on Mirror Trader last week:

Instraday Price Perspective from Strong/Weak app

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

In particular, the Strong/Weak app shows that the British Pound has been underperforming noticeably on short-term time frames (m15, H1) after this morning's data even more than the Euro.This could be a sign that a more significant technical breakdown may be beginning.

The latest readings from the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) indicate that cable (GBP/USD) could still continue lower. The ratio of long to short positions in the pair stands at -1.75 as 36% of traders are long.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Yesterday the ratio was -2.38; 30% of open positions were long. Long positions are 15.0% higher than yesterday and 28.5% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 15.4% lower than yesterday and 28.9% below levels seen last week.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Since SSI is a contrarian indicator to price action, the fact that the trading crowd has grown less net-short from yesterday and last week is an indication that cable could continue lower.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

The SSI-based Momentum2 strategy on Mirror Trader is still short GBP/USD from 1.60477 with the trailing stop having since moved down to 1.60043.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Forex Channel Surfing with AUD/CAD

One final update on the GBP/USD short position from last week: The trade finally closed out for a profit when the trailing stop at 1.60063 was hit. This marks at least a temporary end to the strong US Dollar gains we've seen recently, so I'd like to change focus and look at a trading opportunity in one of the crosses.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Currency Analyst Gregory McLeod noted that AUD/CAD has been in an uptrend starting from the low at 0.9167 on 8/1/2013 peaking at 1.0046 on 10/28/2013. The pair has rebounded from near the bottom of the channel at 0.9828 on 10/31. If channel support holds near 0.9800, AUD/CAD could reach the top of the channel at 1.0113.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

A possible entry is at 0.9928. However, a better on a pullback toward trendline support at 0.9814 would reduce the amount of risk on the trade. A daily candle close below the 0.9800 figure would invalidate this trade setup because the channel would have been broken.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Trading the ECB Rate Decision

The ECB Rate Decision will be announced on Thursday at 12:45 GMT. Since the central bank has been outspoken about their focus on inflation, the recent CPI data makes this meeting one that will have the attention of many traders around the world as EUR/USD drops from 2013 highs.

EUR/USD Setup going into ECB

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Along with mentioning the trade setup above in his DailyFX article 2 Questions to Ask Before You Trade a Central Bank Rate Decision, Tyler Yell said "any indication that the ECB will act on worsening data or pave the road for December rate cuts or Quantitative Easing to weaken the Euro to assist the Eurozone in the face of deflation" could signal further weakness for the single currency.

 

[Jason Rogers]

US Dollar Might Have Set Significant Peak versus Euro Post-ECB

Here's what Quantitative Strategist David Rodriguez had to say about the latest update from our Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) that was just posted on DailyFX.com today:

Weekly Summary of Forex Trader Sentiment and Changes in Positioning

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

"The US Dollar surged versus the Euro following the European Central Bank rate decision, but a substantial shift in sentiment warns of an important EUR/USD bottom.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

"A massive decline in the Euro/US Dollar has been met with an aggressive wave of retail FX profit-taking, leaving crowds at their least net-short Euro since it traded to $1.31 in November. Today’s important swing in positions means that their next trades may actually be USD short orders (EUR/USD, GBP/USD longs)."

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

In fact, the SSI-based Momentum2 strategy on the Mirror Trader platform has just opened a GBP/USD long position at current levels with a trailing stop at 1.5995. FXCM account holders can use their Trading Station username and password to log into Mirror Trader.

 

[Jason Rogers]

USD Graphic Rewind: A Week Packed with High Risk Events Yields to NFP Fever

After a week of rises and falls, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index finally established itself above last week’s high on the release of unexpectedly strong US change in Non-Farm Payrolls.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

The Momentum1 and Momentum2 trading strategies from DailyFX PLUS are now giving signals to short AUD/USD to go along with a previous short signal that was given by Breakout2 earlier.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

All three trading signals are available as automated strategies on the Mirror Trader platform. You can use your FXCM Trading Station username and password to log into Mirror Trader.

 

[Pat494]

Perhaps you could recommend a profitable EA for MT5 or MT4 ? Preferably free but paid for if necessary.

:smart:

 

[Jason Rogers]

Trading the EUR/AUD Cross

In my last post, I mentioned recent DailyFX PLUS Trading Signals to short AUD/USD. Now the Breakout2 strategy has given a signal to buy EUR/USD. Combining these signals, it's no surprise that the latest indication from the Momentum2 strategy is the buy EUR/AUD.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Momentum2 is a trend trading strategy that aims to catch shifts in trend using trader sentiment as an indicator. The signal was issued because the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) has hit its most extreme negative level for the past 145 trading hours at -3.04428, which suggests that EUR/AUD could be trending upwards.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Momentum2 is available as an automated strategy on the Mirror Trader platform. FXCM account holders can use their Trading Station username and password to log into Mirror Trader.

 

[Jason Rogers]

USD/JPY: 5 Charts Which Favor a Break of ¥100

USD/JPY trades at critical resistance as it nears the ¥100 mark. Why might it continue higher? Here are five charts from Quantitative Strategist David Rodriguez along with his comments:

US Dollar Surges vs Japanese Yen and Trades at Critical Resistance

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

"To understand the USD/JPY surge and gauge the likelihood of a further breakout, we take a look at a key driver: yields.

USD/JPY Surges and Trades near Critical Resistance as Yields Rise

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

"The correlation between the US Dollar/Japanese Yen exchange rate and the US 10-year Treasury Note yield trades near multi-year highs, and it’s critical to note that yields have broken key resistance.

US 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Breaks Key Resistance at 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

"Viewed from a yields/correlation perspective, we believe the USDJPY may indeed trade on to fresh highs.

Retail Forex Traders Have Sold Aggressively into the USDJPY Rally, Pointing to Further Gains

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

"Retail forex short interest in the USDJPY has surged 80 percent since last week and is now at its highest since the pair traded above ¥103 in May.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

"Obviously any important shifts in price and sentiment could derail our USD/JPY-bullish forecast. But in the meantime we like trading it higher."

 

[Jason Rogers]

Possible trend shift in GBP/USD – going long

The Momentum2 strategy from DailyFX PLUS has just given a signal to buy GBP/USD at current levels.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Momentum2 is a trend trading strategy that aims to catch shifts in trend using trader sentiment as an indicator. The current signal was issued because the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) has hit its most extreme negative level for the past 145 trading hours at -2.8833, which suggests that the GBP/USD could be trending upwards.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Momentum2 is available as an automated strategy on the Mirror Trader platform. FXCM account holders can use their Trading Station username and password to log into Mirror Trader.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Japanese Yen Likely to Fall Further For a Simple Reason

The Japanese Yen tends to do poorly in quiet markets and forex volatility prices are at fresh yearly lows.

Forex Volatility Prices Fall to Yearly Lows, Favoring USD and JPY Weakness

Source: OTC FX Options Prices from Bloomberg; DailyFX Calculations​

DailyFX quantitative strategist David Rodriguez believes some of the best trade opportunities "are in the cross rates — EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY in particular. Those views are reflected in the strategy bias table shown below.

DailyFX Individual Currency Pair Conditions and Trading Strategy Bias

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

"Our sentiment-based trading strategies have done well selling both the Dollar and Yen through recent price action, and we believe the Momentum2 trading system remains in a good position to capitalize on further Greenback and Yen declines."

 

[Jason Rogers]

Australian Dollar Might Continue Lower versus USD for 3 Key Reasons

DailyFX quantitative strategist David Rodriguez believes there are 3 reasons that may send AUD/USD lower:

1. The mid-month Australian Dollar rally has failed almost exactly at the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the decline from November highs to lows, and the stop and reverse warns that upside momentum is failing.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

2. The pullback has coincided with an important shift in US Treasury Yields and general interest rates.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

The fact that the US Treasury Yield has bounced at major support is a USD-positive and an Australian Dollar-negative.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

3. Retail forex traders remain heavily long the Australian Dollar versus the US Dollar

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Our contrarian sentiment-based Momentum2 trading system has done well selling the Aussie Dollar versus the USD and Euro (long EUR/AUD).

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​