Best Thread FXCM/DailyFX Signals and Strategies

[Jason Rogers]

SSI: Crowds Continue Buying into Aussie Declines

The latest readings from our Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) show that crowds continue to buy into Aussie declines. As I discussed in my previous post, this is a strong contrarian indicator that the price could continue to fall further.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Notice above how AUD/USD tends to drop when crowds are net long (when the SSI bar graph is positive instead of negative). It's not surprising then that the SSI-based Breakout1 strategy has just given a signal to short AUD/USD at current levels with a trailing stop at 0.9187

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Breakout1 and other DailyFX trading signals are available as automated strategies at FXCMapps.com

 

[Jason Rogers]

Big Week as Risk Trends Settle - RBA, ECB, BoE, and US NFPs On Deck

There are several events on the economic calendar this week that are all likely to produce volatility. We have three major central bank meetings, and Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday.

Rate Hike Probabilities / Basis-Points Expectations

​

While past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results, such volatility has traditionally been favorable to the DailyFX trading signals that are based on our Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI).
_

Most recently the Tidal Shift strategy from DailyFXplus.com gave a trading signal this morning to buy EUR/JPY anywhere between 129.626 and 130.203 (blue lines) with a trailing stop at 128.761 (red line).

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Tidal Shift and other DailyFX trading signals are available as automated strategies on the Mirror Trader platform. If you already have an FXCM trading account, you can use the same username and password to log into Mirror Trader.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Momentum Scorecard: Yen Looks to Weaken Against European Trio

Christopher Vecchio wrote an article on DailyFX.com today showing how you can use the Moving Average Dashboard from FXCMapps.com to get trend signals as shown below:

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

As you can see, the moving averages on the hourly, 2-hour, 4-hour and weekly charts for EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and CHF/JPY all point to a bullish momentum for these pairs.

_

Yesterday I posted about the Tidal Shift strategy on DailyFX PLUS giving a signal to buy EUR/JPY, so today I wanted to share a trade signal for one of the other yen crosses.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

There are currently no signals for GBP/JPY on DailyFX PLUS, but there are several for CHF/JPY.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

The latest is signal is from the Momentum1 strategy and it says to buy CHF/JPY at current levels with a trailing stop at 104.913

 

[kalott]

I tried to log in to mirror trader with my FXCM demo account but i get a message invalid username or password?

 

[Jason Rogers]

SSI: Mixed Sentiment Except for Aussie

With ECB and BOE rate decisions tomorrow and the all important Non-Farm Payrolls coming out of the US on Friday, it's no surprise that the latest readings from our Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) show that traders have a fairly neutral bias for most of the major currency pairs, not being overly long or short.

For example, the SSI reading for EUR/USD is -1.07, which means there are 1.07 short positions for every 1 long position. That's almost a 1 to 1 ratio, not much of a short bias.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

The one outlier among the majors is AUD/USD where the ratio of long to short positions stands at 4.23 as 81% of traders are long. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the pair may continue lower.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

The trading crowd has grown further net-long from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bearish trading bias for AUD/USD.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

We can now use the Technical Analyzer on DailyFXplus.com to get our profit targets as shown above in red, if we enter a short position at current levels.

 

[Jason Rogers]

I tried to log in to mirror trader with my FXCM demo account but i get a message invalid username or password?

Hi Kalott,

While FXCM live account logins are universal and work on both Trading Station and Mirror Trader, the demo logins are platform specific. You can click here for a Mirror Trader demo. As with any form of speculative trading, when trading a live account, your capital is at risk.

Jason

 

[Jason Rogers]

Fundamental and Technical Signals to Buy USD/JPY

Today on DailyFX.com quantitative strategist David Rodriguez reiterated his view that "the US Dollar stands to hit further multi-year highs as the largest bond bubble of a generation bursts. This may be particularly true against the yield-sensitive Japanese Yen as the USD/JPY exchange rate hits fresh peaks."

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Taking a look at the 4-hour charts we can see an opportunity to go long at current levels around 101.00 (blue line) using the 10-period EMA as support.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Our profit target can be set around the high in May of 103.731 (green line) with a stop loss around the 61.8% retracement level of 99.930 (red line) of the recent pullback since then.

 

[Jason Rogers]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Push Above 102.00 Signaled

As a follow up to my post yesterday about signals to buy USD/JPY, I wanted to share technical analysis that currency strategist Ilya Spivak posted on DailyFX.com today:

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

"Prices took out resistance at 100.68, the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion, exposing the 76.4% level at 102.31 as the next upside objective. A push beyond that eyes the May 22 high at 103.73. The 100.68 mark has been recast as near-term support."

Yesterday, I showed that there were signals to go long USD/JPY around 101.00 with at stop around 99.930 and a limit around 103.731:

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Using Ilya Spivak's new analysis, we can look to adjust our stop from below 99.930 to just below 100.68, if the market breaks through the 76.4% fib level of 102.31. That allows us to reduce our downside risk as the trade moves in our favor.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Potential Price Targets For The FOMC Minutes

The FOMC minutes will be released today at 18:00 GMT/14:00 EDT. Currency analyst David Song has highlighted some potential price targets for EUR/USD in his article on DailyFX.com:

"Although we're seeing the EURUSD hold above the April low (1.2743), a more upbeat FOMC Minutes may spur a more meaningful run at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 high to the 2010 low around 1.2640-50"

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

EUR/USD is currently trading just above the trend line shown in blue. We could look to go short on a break below that line around 1.2800, with a stop above the weekly high of 1.28975.

 

[Jason Rogers]

S&P 500 targeting new highs

My EUR/USD trade idea from yesterday was stopped out as the US Dollar took a beating after yesterday's dovish commentary from Bernanke clarifying the Fed's intentions to taper QE asset purchases. As a result the US stock market is targeting new all-time highs today.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Entering a long position in SPX500 at current levels, it's possible to set stops below the 0.618 and 0.764 Fib levels at 1,638.9 and 1.657.6 respectively. Profit targets can be set around the all-time highs at 1.687.9 and the 1.272 Fib extension at 1.722.8.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

The latest readings from the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) on DailyFXplus.com show that the crowd is heavily short SPX500. SSI for SPX500 stands at -4.66 which means 82% of retail traders are short and only 18% of are long. Since SSI is a contrarian indicator, this is a signal that SPX500 could continue to make new highs.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Aussie drops below 0.9000 first time since 2010; SSI says it can fall further

Today, AUD/USD briefly dropped below 0.9000 for the first time since September 2010. It has since rebounded trading around 0.9060, but retail positioning indicates that the Aussie could still fall further.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

The latest Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) reading for AUD/USD stands at 4.73. That means among retail traders there are 4.73 long positions for each short position. This is the most extreme positioning of any major currency pair at this time, and has only gotten more extreme as retail traders are trying to pick a bottom.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Long positions are 14.3% higher than yesterday and 24.9% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 4.6% lower than yesterday and 34.4% below levels seen last week. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long and continuing to buy gives a strong signal that the AUD/USD may continue lower.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Two of the SSI-based trading strategies on DailyFX PLUS recently posted signals to short AUD/USD. The signal from the Momentum2 strategy has already moved enough into profit, that the Action status has changed from "Enter Now" to "Hold", which means if you're not in the trade already, it's too late to enter now.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

It's still possible to enter now manually on the Breakout2 trade signal to go short with stops at 0.9346, 0.9289 and 0.9193 and limits at 0.8949 and 0.8892. DailyFX trading signals are also available as automated strategies at FXCMapps.com

 

[skirmish]

EUR/USD DAILY as of Monday, 15 July, 2013
A Daily black body has formed (because prices closed lower than they opened).
For the past 10 Daily candlestick bars as of 12/07/2013, there are 4 white candles versus 6 black candles with a net of 2 black candles.
For the past 50 Daily candlestick bars as of 12/07/2013, there are 26 white candles versus 24 black candles with a net of 2 white candles.
A Daily long lower shadow has formed. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or oversold).
MACD is currently BULLISH. The MACD is currently above the signal line. The MACD has just crossed above the signal line.
Directional Movement Indicators () signal was a BUY 2 period(s) ago.
SAR, Stochastic and DMI signal was a Buy 2 period(s) Ago.
The close is currently
ABOVE its 200 daily moving average
ABOVE its 50 daily moving average
ABOVE its 20 daily moving average
The current market condition for Euro Dollar / US Dollar is Very Bullish
Euro Dollar / US Dollar broke above the upside resistance level of 1.28, two day(s) ago. This is a bullish sign. This previous resistance level of 1.28 may now provide downside support. Prices have risen 0.35% since the breakout
On 12/07/2013, Euro Dollar / US Dollar closed above the lower Bollinger Band by 49.8%. Bollinger Bands are 47.03% wider than normal. The large width of the Bollinger Bands suggest high volatility as compared to Euro Dollar / US Dollar's normal range. Therefore, the probability of volatility decreasing and prices entering (or remaining in) a trading range has increased for the near-term. The Bollinger bands have been in this wide range for 6 period(s). The probability of prices consolidating into a less volatile trading range increases the longer the Bollinger Bands remain in this wide range.

Please note that all wave counts are based on the high low price in this commentary! ​

Elliott Waves High Volatility has detected a possible point 4 of a WolfWave (21%) pattern for Euro Dollar / US Dollar. This pattern is an expanding triangle and trades from the next point. When the peak or trough will form, usually after crossing or touching the extended line of points 1 and 3, the price will move in the opposite direction towards the target line formed by the extension of points 2 and 4.
An Inside Day Narrow Range was detected by your Elliott Waves High Volatility on 12/07/2013. This is usually a trade set-up opportunity
The present wave patterns are:
fast amplitude (8%): bullish wave 1
moderate amplitude (13%): bullish wave 3
Euro Dollar / US Dollar is long term Bearish as the 144 days moving average of 1.31 is decreasing. The Relative Strength Index is at 51.21 in the neutral territory. The Relative Momentum Index is at 43.56 in the neutral territory. An important indicator for Elliott waves, the Elliott oscillator is at -0.00, in negative territory; this is a bearish sign. An equally important indicator, the STORSI is at 94.00. This value is in the overbought territory.


*** Intra-Daily Trading Strategy: SELL EURUSD
Sell Target: 1.3011
Sell Stop: 1.3156
Enter New SELL on OPEN and exit SELL positions at Target price or at Stop price.
(PLEASE TAKE NOTE: If necessary, adjust the Stop Loss Price according to your trading risk.)
Do not reverse after exiting as Trending & Anti-Trending mode are being used by this system.
This is a recommendation for INTRA-DAY TRADING only!!!!!

Thanks Martin...TP hit just above 9Pips. Cheers!

 

[Jason Rogers]

SSI: US Stocks Could Go Higher Despite Retail Sales Miss

Retail sales rose less than forecast in June (0.4% vs. 0.8% expected), but the latest readings from the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) on DailyFXplus.com suggest that US stocks might still continue higher. SSI for SPX500 stands at -4.90 which means there are 4.9 short positions for every long position.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the SPX500 may continue higher. In fact, the trading crowd has grown further net-short since last week.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

On Friday, the SSI reading for SPX500 was -4.56. Long positions are 0.4% lower than Friday and 12.2% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 6.8% higher than Friday and 40.6% above levels seen last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bullish trading bias.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

SPX500 is currently within striking distance of the all-time high of 1,687.9 set on May 22nd, and a break above that could target the 1.272 Fibonacci expansion at 1,722.8. Stops can be set below the 0.764 Fib level at 1,657.6.

 

[Jason Rogers]

New trade alert for USD/JPY

Jamie Saettele, the senior technical strategist for DailyFX.com, just tweeted about his new trade alert for USD/JPY:

"order to short USDJPY at 99.70. Stop is 100.60. Target half at 99.00. Other half will be trailed but the soft target is 95.40."

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Jamie Saettele mentioned yesterday in the Analyst Picks section of DailyFX.com that he was looking for an opportunity to enter a short position on USD/JPY after the pair seemed to find resistance at the 61.8% retracement level.

More sellers have since come in at the 50% level, and Saettele has now updated his pick with this alert to include his entry, stop and profit targets. To get his updates in real-time you can follow Jamie Saettele on Twitter @JamieSaettele

 

[Jason Rogers]

Bullish signs for AUD/USD after Fed comments are released

The US dollar was hit across the board as Bernanke's prepared comments were released this morning for his semiannual testimony at Congress. While European currencies are struggling to rise further from here, the commodity bloc currencies are continuing to show signs of strength.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

As you can see from the chart below overlaying the price for the Euro on a 1-minute chart of the AUD/USD price since the release of the Fed minutes after 12:00 GMT.
_

Currency analyst Christopher Vecchio just tweeted about a potential bottom in the AUD/USD downtrend with a broadening wedge shown in his chart below.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

To view the complete details for analyzing this chart setup and to continue to get his latest trade ideas, you can follow Christopher Vecchio on Twitter @CVecchioFX

 

[Jason Rogers]

US Stocks Trading at All Time Highs

Last week, I mentioned that US stocks could possibly be targeting new highs, because our Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows that retail traders are heavily short SPX 500, and this is a contrarian signal to buy.

Entering a long position in SPX500 at current levels, it's possible to set stops below the 0.618 and 0.764 Fib levels at 1,638.9 and 1.657.6 respectively. Profit targets can be set around the all-time highs at 1.687.9 and the 1.272 Fib extension at 1.722.8.

The latest readings from the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) on DailyFXplus.com show that the crowd is heavily short SPX500. SSI for SPX500 stands at -4.66 which means 82% of retail traders are short and only 18% of are long. Since SSI is a contrarian indicator, this is a signal that SPX500 could continue to make new highs.

Today both the S&P and the Dow reached new all time highs at 1687.47 and 15543.21 respectively. The DailyFX PLUS Technical Analyzer can be used to find key price levels to target when the market is trading at all time highs.

SPX500

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

The chart above is of SPX500, our CFD for the S&P 500. The Technical Analyzer is targeting 1693, 1696 and 1701 as key levels now that we're trading at all time highs.

US 30

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

The chart above is of US30, our CFD for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The Technical Analyzer is targeting 15460, 15490 and 15560 as key levels now that we're trading at all time highs.

There are more details about these key levels on the Technical Analyzer on DailyFXplus.com

 

[Jason Rogers]

Japanese Yen Likely to Fall to Fresh Lows

The markets are keeping a close eye on the outcome of Japan's upper-house elections. The latest polls suggest Shinzo Abe’s LDP party will gain a large majority, allowing the Prime Minister greater scope to push his aggressive program to lift Japan out of deflation. That translates to a weaker yen.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

While the latest readings from the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) show that forex trading crowds remain long USD/JPY, the positioning has grown far less one-sided since last week. The shift in sentiment actually leaves us bullish USD/JPY and broadly bearish the Yen itself.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

If we enter a long position at current levels, we can set a stop below the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the down move since May. Our profit targets can be set around the 76.4% Fib level at 101.383.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Tidal Shift Strategy buys EUR/USD

The Tidal Shift Strategy (also known as the Momentum2 Strategy in the Classic Trading Signals section of DailyFX PLUS) has just given a signal to buy EUR/USD between 1.31403 and 1.31789 (between the blue dotted lines in the chart below) with a trailing stop at 1.30825 (red dotted line).

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Tidal Shift is a trend trading strategy that aims to catch shifts in trend using trader sentiment as an indicator. The signal was issued because our Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) has hit its most extreme negative level for the past 145 trading hours at -1.7669, which suggests that the EURUSD could be trending upwards.

The Tidal Shift Strategy can be automated using the Mirror Trader platform. If you have a live FXCM Trading Station account, you can use the same username and password to log into Mirror Trader.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Signs for a Pullback in Crude Oil

In his article today on DailyFX.com, senior technical strategist Jamie Saettele explains why the latest data from the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports show signs that crude oil could pull back from recent highs. Given this bearish signal, we can look to the Technical Analyzer on DailyFXplus.com for key price levels to go short.

US Oil (WTI Crude) 30-Minute Chart

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

A short position can be entered at current levels with a stop above 107.20 and profit targets around 105.70 and 104.75.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Kiwi Bullish going into RBNZ Rate Decision

The kiwi edged has higher against the US dollar as New Zealand reported a better-than-expected June trade surplus. NZD/USD is currently trading above daily pivot at 0.7900 and targeting 0.8050, 0.8100 and 0.8145 headed into the RBNZ rate decision at 21:00 GMT which will be covered as it happens by John Kicklighter in the Live Trading Room on DailyFX.com

NZD/USD 30-Minute Chart

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the central bank to maintain the rate at the current 2.50%, but Credit Suisse's overnight index swaps indicate market expectations for a 40% chance of a rate increase in the next 12 months which could move NZD/USD higher.