Best Thread FXCM/DailyFX Signals and Strategies

[Jason Rogers]

Written by By Ilya Spivak of DailyFX.com

Major Currencies vs. US Dollar (% change)
04Oct 2010 – 08Oct 2010

General Comment:

The US Dollar came under broad-based selling pressure last week on rumors that the Federal Reserve will soon introduce another round of quantitative easing (QE) amid increasingly acute signs of a broad-based cooling in global growth through the second half of the year, with Friday’s disappointing set of US employment figures bolstering the bears’ conviction. Going forward, QE speculation looks likely to remain in the spotlight, with the prospect of renewed stimulus for the world’s top economy becoming the central issue for risk sentiment at large. Perversely, this has meant that poor US data has now become broadly risk-positive in that it supports the case for more QE, and vice versa.

With a fairly light US calendar ahead, this puts the onus on Tuesday’s release of minutes from September FOMC policy meeting as well as a long list of scheduled speeches from Federal Reserve officials. On balance, the speaking schedule looks likely to stoke QE expectations with the influential and notably dovish Vice Chair Janet Yellen and NY Fed President Bill Dudley likely to overshadow remarks from Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig, who may not prove market-moving considering his steadily hawkish posture has surely had ample time to be priced into exchange rates. However, two scheduled speeches from Ben Bernanke will take top billing as traders try to decipher which side of spectrum has greater influence over the Fed Chairman.

On the data front, another mixed batch of US releases is expected, with soft-ish Retail Sales set to be counterbalanced by firmer UofM consumer confidence reading while CPI and PPI results remain within the recent range of outcomes. EURUSD:

Risk sentiment remains the strongest driver of Euro price action. The economic calendar is conspicuously bare, with final revision of September’s German and Euro Zone CPI figures amounting to the only noteworthy items on the docket.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Forex: U.S. Dollar Benefits From Flight To Safety But FOMC Minutes Could Spark Shift

Written by David Song of DailyFX.com

- Japanese Yen: Benefits From Risk Aversion
- Pound: U.K. Inflation Continues To Hold Above 3%
- Euro: German Price Growth Advances in September
- U.S. Dollar: FOMC Meeting Minutes on Tap


The U.S. dollar continued to bounce back against most of its major counterparts on Tuesday, with the EUR/USD slipping to a low of 1.3886, and the greenback is likely to face increased volatility throughout the day as the Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to release its policy meeting minutes at 18:00 GMT. The EUR/USD showed little reaction to the overnight data after we saw wholesale prices in Germany increase 1.0% in September, which topped projections for a 0.4% expansion, while the final CPI reading showed the headline reading for inflation advanced to an annualized rate of 1.3% from 1.0% in August. European Central Bank board member Christian Noyer talked down the risks for inflation during a speech in Paris and said that the upside risks for price growth remains “very limited” in the euro-area given the ongoing slack in the real economy. As policy makers maintain a dovish outlook for the region, the ECB is likely to maintain the expansion in monetary policy going into 2011 as the governments operating under the fixed-exchange rate system struggle to manage their public finances, and the central bank may look to support the economy throughout the beginning of the following year in order to encourage a sustainable recovery.

As the EUR/USD struggles to hold above 1.3900, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 high to the 2010 low, the pair appears to have carve out a short-term top, and we may see a corrective retracement unfold throughout the week as the daily relative strength index finally falls back from overbought territory. The pullback in the exchange rate could lead the euro-dollar to test 1.3500, the 50.0% Fib, for support, but comments from the Fed could spur a shift in market sentiment investors speculate the central bank to expand monetary policy further later this year. At the same time, equity futures are pointing to a lower open for the U.S. market following the decline in Europe and Asia, and the flight to safety could keep the dollar afloat throughout the day as risk trends continue to dictate price action in the currency market.

The British Pound slipped to a low of 1.5793 during the European trade as investors scaled back their appetite for risk, and the exchange rate may hold steady going into the North American trade as price action continues to hold above the 20-Day moving average at 1.5765. As the GBP/USD maintains the advance from the previous month, we may see the pair find support ahead of the 32.8% Fibonacci from the 2009 low to high around 1.5700, and price action may push sideways in the days ahead as the Bank of England is scheduled to release its policy meeting next week. The economic docket showed U.K. inflation held steady at an annualized pace of 3.1% in September, which was largely in-line with expectations, while the core CPI grew 2.7% from the previous year amid forecasts for a 2.6% rise. Given the stickiness in price growth, the BoE may drop its dovish tone as inflation continues to hold above the government’s 3% limit for price growth, and members of the MPC may support board member Andrew Sentance’s call to start normalizing monetary policy in order to balance the risks for the region.

The greenback strengthened against most of its major counterparts, while the USD/JPY slipped to a low of 81.79 as the Japanese Yen benefitted from the rise in risk aversion, and risk trends are likely to dictate price action going into the U.S. trade as the economic docket remains fairly light for Tuesday. FOMC member Thomas Hoenig is scheduled to speak at 15:45 GMT regarding the economy, while ECB President Trichet will deliver his economic outlook at 16:20 GMT, and comments from the policy makers are likely to spark increased volatility in the currency market as investors weigh the prospects for future policy. However, all eyes will certainly be on the FOMC minutes as market participants speculate the central bank to show an increased willingness to expand monetary policy further and extremely dovish comments from the Fed could drag on the exchange rate as the board maintains a cautious outlook for the world’s largest economy.

 

[Jason Rogers]

British Pound Supported by 20 Day Moving Average

Written by Jamie Saettele of DailyFX.com

Daily Bars

Bigger picture - “I am of the mind that a large triangle is underway since the January 2009 low. The implications are bullish over the next few months (allowing for a correction over the next several weeks down to 15450-15500), with triangle wave C working towards 16500 before a reversal and multi month decline in triangle wave d.” Near term, I am cautiously bearish against the high as price has broken below the short term channel. A target is 15650, which is a 161.8% extension and former support.

 

[Jason Rogers]

BoC Refrains From Raising Interest Rates, Slashes 2010 Growth Forecast

Written by Michael Wright of DailyFX.com

The Bank of Canada refrained from raising interest rates in October, which marked the first pause since the central bank began increasing borrowing costs in June. Subsequent to the release, the USDCAD resumed its intraday northern voyage, and now looks poised to test 1.04 in the near term as the greenback as of late benefits from China’s decision to hike interest rates for the first time in almost three years.

The central bank slashed its 2010 growth forecast from 3.5 percent to 3.0 percent, and noted that household expenditures is expected to “decelerate.” Policy makers also said that the recovery is entering a “new phase,” and further moves will be “carefully considered.” The comments trailing the rate decision does not bode well for the loonie, and we could continue to see the Canadian dollar lose ground against the buck, aussie, and Japanese yen for the remainder of the day.

The USDCAD has rallied over 100 pips ahead of the Bank of Canada interest rate decision on the back of China’s decision to raise its interest rates for the first time in almost three years. So long as price action may close above the 20-day moving average today, upside risks towards 1.0400 remain. It is noteworthy that our speculative sentiment index now stands at 1.85, and signals for a slight retracement. All in all, as there is major support at 1.02, I do not rule out a slight pull back before the pair resumes its northern journey.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Long Term Euro Bear Trend Resumes

Published by Jamie Saettele of DailyFX.com

I first showed this chart at the FXCM Expo in May (Trading Opportunities and Forecasts in 2010-slide 10). This latest top in the EURUSD will most likely prove to be the 3rd best selling opportunity of all time behind the 2008 top at 16000 and the 2009 top at 15140. While the fastest part of the decline is probably still several years away, the larger trend has likely turned back down.

 

[Jason Rogers]

British Pound Fails Ahead of 1.5900

Analysis from Jamie Saettele of DailyFX.com

The GBPUSD rally failed after the US session yesterday just ahead of 15900. The specter of the recent double top brings to the forefront the potential for a drop down below 15294 in the coming weeks. 15500 is a potential pausing point before then however.

 

[Jason Rogers]

This Week's Economic Calendar

Written by Thomas Long of DailyFX.com

Here is this week's Economic Calendar with those events that are watched closely by traders around the world. For more on how the market might view these releases, check out DailyFX for their point of view.

 

[Jason Rogers]

USD Traders Look to U.S. Durable Goods Orders For Support During Mid-Week Trading

Written by Michael Wright of DailyFX.com

OCT 27: U.S Durable Goods Orders
Expectations: 2.0%
Prior: -1.5%


Fundamental Outlook
Durable goods orders in the world’s largest economy are forecasted to advance 2.0 percent for the month of September after falling a revised 1.5 percent in August. Indeed, these orders are expected to last more than three years, and reflect optimism in the economy. At the same time, the reading serves as an indicator regarding output to come. In this case, economists are expecting durable goods to recover from its depressed levels and rise at the fastest pace since April of this year.

The headline figure is expected to be driven by Boeing orders. The world’s largest airplane maker received 117 orders in September from 10 orders in August. At the same time, motor vehicle orders and defense orders are estimated to increase for the month. Meanwhile, the 46 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News are expecting durable goods excluding transportation to add a mere 0.5 percent. Market participants should not overlook the breakdown of the report, in particular, the core capital goods due to the fact that it factors into gross domestic product.

All in all, with the trend in durable goods orders slowing since the beginning of the year, a better than expected report may alleviate some fears of quantitative easing measures from the Fed ahead of the FOMC rate decision next week. In turn, the U.S. dollar may continue to slowly pare some of its losses against most major currencies as the greenback looks to recover from its current levels.

Technical Outlook

GBPUSD: The GBPUSD has extended yesterday’s advance, but remains capped by 1.5850. Despite today’s advance, downside risks remain for the pair as technical indicators as of late are pointing to losses in the foreseeable future. The 10-day SMA has crossed over below the 20-day SMA, while the MACD has crossed to the downside last week and has yet to reverse course. At the same time, the speculative sentiment index stands at 1.14 and signals for further declines.

 

[Jason Rogers]

EUR/USD Classical: Eyeing Key Neckline Support

Written by Joel Kruger of DailyFX.com

EUR/USD: The market is in the process of rolling over and carving out what could be the right shoulder of a major head & shoulders top. Key neckline support comes in by 1.3695, and a break below will confirm reversal prospects and potentially open a material decline back towards a measured move objective by the 1.3300 area which also loosely coincides with the 50-Day SMA. The 10-Day SMA is also looking like it could be on the verge of crossing the 20-Day SMA for the first time since early September when the market was trading in the 1.2700’s. For now, look for any intraday rallies to be well capped ahead of 1.4000.

 

[Jason Rogers]

U.S. Dollar Tumbles Across The Board Ahead of Tomorrow's U.S. GDP Report

Written by Michael Wright of DailyFX.com

Fundamental Headlines
• Easing Uncertainty Pushes Dollar Lower– Wall Street Journal
• Strong Earnings Lift Europe’s Markets – Wall Street Journal
• Earnings and Falling Dollar Improve Investors’ Mood - Financial Times
• Fed Asks Dealers To Estimate Size, Impact of Debt Purchases - Bloomberg
• Europe Economic Confidence Improves More Than Forecast - Bloomberg

EURUSD: Economic confidence in the 16 member euro area topped expectations in October as figures rose to 104.1 from 103.2 to mark the highest level since December 2007. At the same time, industrial confidence advanced from negative territory, while the services component remained unchanged from September. Indeed, today’s advance in the economic sentiment index marks the fifth successive increase. However, I expect sentiment in the bloc to scale back from its highs as governments will implement tough austerity measures to battle its high budget debts. In the currency markets the EURUSD pared yesterday’s losses to reach an intraday high of 1.38626, but upside risks look to be capped by 1.390. At the same time, the 10-day SMA is poised to cross over the 20-day moving average, which is indicative of additional losses. All in all, I will look to remain short ahead of tomorrow’s highly anticipated U.S. GDP report.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Euro Trend Against the US Dollar at Risk on Fed, ECB Rate Decisions

Written by David Rodriguez of DailyFX.com

- Euro big gainer on US Dollar weakness ahead of Fed decision
- Euro weakness near highs suggest top is forming
- Busy week of European Central Bank and US Federal Reserve decisions ahead

The Euro finished the week almost exactly unchanged against the US Dollar, but US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank interest rate decisions promises substantial EURUSD volatility and potential trend shifts in the days ahead. The US Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) highly-anticipated announcement will likely drive the lion’s share of volatility in USD pairs and broader financial markets. Yet EURUSD traders should not overlook several potentially important Euro Zone economic releases and a similarly significant European Central Bank announcement through later-week trade.

Market expectations leading up to the FOMC rate announcement virtually guarantee major US Dollar moves regardless of outcome, the trajectory of the US currency may very well depend on the Fed’s actions or lack thereof. The Euro has been a primary beneficiary of anti-US Dollar flows and would likely rally considerably on a USD-bearish result. What that result would look like is admittedly unclear, however. Markets have almost certainly priced in an announcement of further Fed Quantitative Easing measures. Yet the amount of additional QE currently forecast is unclear, and we are at a loss to handicap results ahead of the fact. We will likely need to wait some time after the result to fully grasp its implications for the dollar and other major currencies. Yet recent signs of a potential US Dollar reversal suggest that the Fed meeting could potentially bring an important shift in EURUSD trends.

The later-week European Central Bank decision may be overshadowed by the FOMC announcement, but we can’t rule out sharp post-ECB moves. Overnight Index Swaps currently price in exactly 0 probability of a rate hike or cut, but the ensuing commentary could alter forecasts for future moves. As it stands, OIS predict that the ECB will raise interest rates by a cumulative 35 basis points in the coming 12 months. Though this is a paltry sum, it is the fourth-highest among G10 central banks. This has arguably been one of the reasons that the Euro has been a primary beneficiary of anti-US Dollar flows and any substantive shifts could force corrections.

The week ahead could prove pivotal for all US Dollar pairs, and this is especially true for the EURUSD. After setting significant peaks near the 1.4150 mark, the Euro has failed to make a renewed drive to fresh highs. Heavily one-sided USD-short positioning warns that early signs of EURUSD losses could spark a larger wave of position covering. A week of FOMC and ECB rate decisions could be just the spark needed to determine the future of EURUSD trends.

 

[Jason Rogers]

EUR/USD: Trading the Federal Open Market Committee Interest Rate Decision

Written by David Song of DailyFX.com

Why Is This Event Important:
As market participants speculate the Federal Open Market Committee to expand monetary policy further in November, the interest rate decision could trigger a selloff in the U.S. dollar as the central bank is likely to maintain a cautious outlook for the world’s largest economy. Recent comments by New York Fed President William Dudley suggests that the central bank will look to expand quantitative easing further as the interest rate remains close to zero, and the committee may look to support the real economy throughout the first-half of 2011 given the ongoing weakness within the private sector.

What’s Expected:
Time of release:11/03/2010 18:15 GMT, 14:15 EST
Primary Pair Impact :EURUSD
Expected: 0.25%
Previous: 0.25%

Will This Be Market Moving (Scenarios):
A Bloomberg News survey shows 53 of the 56 economists polled forecast the FOMC to expand QE by at least $500B this month, while investors see the Fed holding the benchmark interest rate within its current range according to Credit Suisse overnight index swapsas it aims to strengthen the economy. Given the uncertainties surrounding the fundamental outlook, the Fed may deliver the stimulus is several stages in order to gauge the impact of the extraordinary measure, but may ultimately vote to swoop in with a one-time purchase as policy makers expect the recovery to gather pace over the following year.

The Upside
The advanced GDP reading for the third-quarter showed the growth rate expanded at an annualized pace of 2.0% during the three-months through September, which was largely in-line with expectations, while personal consumption grew 2.6% during the same period to exceed projections for a 2.5% rise. As the recovery slowly gathers pace, the Fed may look to incrementally expand its balance sheet over the coming months, and the central bank may revised its economic assessment as the recent developments suggest that the rebound in economic activity will pick up pace in 2011.

The Downside
Given the deterioration in the labor market paired with the ongoing slack in the private sector, the Fed may vote to implement a massive one-time asset purchase plan in an effort to jump-start the economy. A larger-than-expected rise in QE would suggests that the central bank is taking out all the stops to encourage a sustainable recovery, and dovish comments following the rate decision could spark a big selloff in the U.S. dollar as investors weigh the outlook for future policy.

How To Trade This Event Risk
Trading the given event risk is certainly not as clear cut as our previous trades as the Fed steers into uncharted territory, but price action following the rate decision could set the stage for a long U.S. dollar trade as investors price-in expectations for future easing. Therefore, if the Fed decides to incrementally expand its balance sheet over the coming month and leaves the door open to halt its asset purchases when it deems fit, we will need a red, five-minute candle following the release to establish a sell entry on two-lots of EUR/USD. Once these conditions are met, we will place the initial stop at the nearby swing low or a reasonable distance after taking market volatility into account, and this risk will establish our first target. The second objective will be based on discretion, and we will move the stop on the second lot to cost once the first trade reaches its mark in order to preserve our profits.

In contrast, the ongoing weakness in the private sector paired with the recent deterioration in the labor market could lead the FOMC to take an aggressive approach in stimulating the economy as it aims to encourage a sustainable recovery. As a result, if the Fed opts for a large, one-time asset purchase package, we will implement the same setup for a long euro-dollar trade as the short position laid out above, just in reverse.

 

[Jason Rogers]

DailyFX SSI: Euro Sentiment Points to Further Gains

EURUSD – The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.98 as nearly 66% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.93 as 66% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 1.9% lower than yesterday and 25.1% weaker since last week. Short positions are 0.8% higher than yesterday and 0.3% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.1% weaker than yesterday and 8.8% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

 

[Jason Rogers]

US Dollar Meets Key Multi-Year Support, Hints Reversal Ahead

US DOLLAR INDEX – The greenback has stalled at key support marked by a trend line connecting major swing lows since the record low set in March 2008, with positive RSI divergence pointing cooling bearish momentum and hinting that a move higher is around the corner. Initial resistance lines up in the 77.69-78.45 region, followed by the top of a falling channel set from the yearly high now at 79.27. A break above this final juncture would invalidate the medium-term down trend, opening the door for a sizable advance.

MSCI WORLD STOCK INDEX – Prices are testing resistance at 329.49, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the Oct’07 - Mar’09 decline. Overbought conditions on weekly relative strength studies suggest that (at least) a pullback is likely in the near term. Initial support stands at 304.93, a rising internal trend line that has acted as both a significant upside and downside barrier on over five occasions since October 2008.

CRUDE OIL – Prices have put in a bearish Hanging Man candlestick at $87.15, the major swing top set in May that – until last week – served as the 2010 yearly high. Negative RSI divergence continues to point toward (at least) a pullback, with a reversal lower initially targeting resistance-turned-support at $84.43, the 10/07 wick high.

GOLD – Gold bulls refuse to be denied, with prices breaking above the psychologically significant $1400 figure to put in a new yearly high. However, negative RSI divergence continues to point toward fading upward momentum. Initial resistance now stands at $1414.82, the 138.2% Fibonacci extension of the 10/14-10/22 downswing, with a reversal here initially targeting $1387.35.

 

[Jason Rogers]

All Eyes Turn to G20 as Fed QE2 Stokes "Currency War" Fears

- Australian Employment Report Yields Little More than Volatility
- Moody’s Raises Chinese Debt Rating, Overshadows Rate Hike Fears
- Major Currencies Range-Bound Ahead of G20 Leaders’ Summit

Australian Employment figures offered a mixed bag of outcomes. The report showed the economy added 29,700 jobs in October, topping economists’ forecasts for a 20,000 increase. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate unexpectedly ticked higher to 5.4 percent, albeit likely because improving labor market conditions brought an inflow of discouraged workers back into the labor force considering the Participation Rate ticked up to 65.9 percent, the highest on record.

In a somewhat worrisome development, this inflow was channeled into part-time employment whereas full-time positions were cut, which certainly does not exude confidence firms’ confidence about future demand prospects. That said, one month of data can hardly be called conclusive and traders will need to see how these trends evolve over time to draw firm conclusions. Australian Dollar price action following the release mirrored the conflicting cues therein, with the currency initially tumbling as the higher jobless rate number crossed the wires but promptly recovering toward the middle of the range that had prevailed over the preceding 24 hours, yielding a net flat result.

Chinese Consumer Price Index figures outdid forecasts with the annualized inflation rate rising to 4.4 percent – the highest in over two years. New Yuan Loans – another closely watched metric by traders keen to forecast Beijing’s monetary policy – printed much higher than expected at 587.7 billion. Taken together, the outcomes hint that authorities may step up efforts to cool the buoyant economy amid fears of asset bubbles and runaway price growth. Markets didn’t seem too perturbed by the releases despite their apparent signaling of slower growth in the East Asian giant, with the data overshadowed by news that ratings powerhouse Moody’s raised China’s debt rating to Aa3 from A1.

 

[Jason Rogers]

US Dollar: Crowd Sentiment Points to Continued Gains

Written by David Rodriguez of DailyFX.com

Recent US Dollar rallies have been met with aggressive crowd selling, giving us contrarian signal to buy the USD against the Euro and the British Pound. US Dollar short positions against the GBP have more than doubled in the past week of trade—underlining the speed and aggressiveness of the Greenback bounce. Given bullish short-term momentum, we see little option but to favor continued US Dollar rallies.

EURUSD – The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.15 as nearly 53% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.02 as 51% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.3% higher than yesterday and 25.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 9.9% lower than yesterday and 22.7% weaker since last week. Open interest is 4.3% weaker than yesterday and 2.3% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD losses.

 

[Jason Rogers]

US Retail Sales Jump 1.2% in October, Empire Manufacturing Enters Negative Territory

Written by Michael Wright of DailyFX.com

Advanced retail sales in the world’s largest economy rose 1.2 percent in October after climbing 0.7 percent the month prior amid expectations of 0.7 percent. At the same time, empire manufacturing in November entered negative territory for the first time since July 2009. Subsequent to the reports, the U.S. dollar lost ground against most of its major counterparts.

The rise in retail sales were led by climbing auto sales. Outside of autos, non-store retailers gained 0.8 percent, while electronics and appliances pared the increase as figures slid 0.7 percent. The report is of great importance due to the fact that stronger retail sales show stronger consumer demand and economic growth. However, despite the upbeat report, the slump in empire manufacturing lead the buck to pare some of its overnight advances as the report entered negative territory for the first time since July 2009. Taking a look at the breakdown of the release, prices paid slid to 22.08 in November from 30.00 the month prior, while the number of employees slid to the lowest level since July of this year. At the same time, new orders and shipments fell at an alarming rate. The report does not bode well for the U.S. economy as it suggests that the industry that once lead the region out of the recession is now tapering off.

GBPUSD Daily Chart

Taking a look at the currency markets, the GBPUSD has halted its three day advance, but has pared most of its intraday losses ahead of the U.K. consumer prices report. It is worth noting that the MACD continues to point to further gains, while downside risks are capped by the 20-day moving average. At the same time, the bullish trend dating back to May of this year remains intact, thus, I do not rule out a test towards 1.6200 in the near term. All in all, I will remain long this pair ad my bias remains to the upside.

 

[Jason Rogers]

EUR/USD Classical 11.17

Written by Joel Kruger of DailyFX.com

EUR/USD: The market has finally rolled over quite convincingly, with critical short-term support by 1.3695 now easily exceeded to suggest that a major lower top could be in the process of carving out by 1.4285. We had initially projected a test of longer-term falling resistance off of the record highs by 1.4500, but 1.4285 could very well be it, with setbacks now seen accelerating to the downside back towards 1.3000 over the coming days. Look for the latest weekly close below 1.3700 to help strengthen the bearish case. From here, any rallies should now be well capped ahead of 1.3800, where the 10-Day SMA has crossed below the 20-Day SMA. Next major downside target doesn’t come in until 1.3335 in the form of previous resistance now turned support.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Euro Focus on 1.2950

Written by Jamie Saettele of DailyFX.com

EUR/USD: A 3rd wave decline is likely underway from 13785. The drop below 13350 (former resistance) shifts focus to 12950 (100% extension and former resistance in September) 12590 (former support) and 12430 (161.8%). 13290 and 13350 are resistance levels.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Australian Dollar 9500 is Potential Support

Written by Jamie Saettele of DailyFX.com

Expectations are for AUDUSD weakness to extend towards 9225 (161.8% extension and August high) in what is probably a 3rd wave underway from 9950. 9500 (100% extension) could produce a bounce. Risk on shorts should be kept to 9850. 9660 and 9700 are resistance levels.