FX trading: Sept 24 - 28

[ChowClown]

Well it's been a dreadful week for my overnight system - 4 losing trades in a row and my account is well and truly suffering.

In truth, the past six weeks have been losing for the system, -109 pips overall for the last six weeks. However the two weeks previous to this were +188 pips and +200 pips, so over the last eight weeks this would have been +279 pips - which averages to just over 34 pips per week. (The system average for the last year is 38 pips, so it's not far adrift from this).

Is the moral of this story that after a couple of outstanding trading weeks, you should move away from the system and let it incurr the losses that it needs to average things out?



Let's just hope that it gets back on an even keel soon - my account is woeful at the moment and I need something to cheer me up. The problem is that when things go this bad I lose total confidence in my own ability to do this and wonder if trading is something I can actually do with any degree of success .....

Hi JillyB, i experienced the same with VEBO and quit trading it once it fell outside the parameters of the backtest....trouble was the backtest period was too short. If i'd have done more testing my confidence in it wouldn't have been rocked so much, although my expectation of the method would have been far different.

I retested VEBO over 6 years of data and it was apparent that it wasn't a consistent enough method to use in the way that i'd initially hoped i could, ie as a source of income - the testing reduced my expectation of VEBO to a back-burner, longer term method.

You have consistently demonstrated that you are a good trader - the method is within your backtest parameters at the moment, keep going.

 

[ChowClown]

...keeping any eye on AUD/USD now for longs...liking the action around the RN atm.

 

[ChowClown]

...quick snapshot of current longs.

Cable long just hit initial target, stops to b/e.

 

[ChowClown]

OK, first target area hit on E/J. Stops to b/e.

...all out, just a tad beyond b/e...might be in long again later.

 

[ChowClown]

...long NZD/USD now, slightly earlier than anticipated, but signal fired so took it.

Time for a break.

 

[Benny Dorm]

Hi Chow,

You are thinking of going full-time. I wish you every success. Can you (would you?) tell us which company or companies you are thinking of using to trade fx please? I would be most interested.

(cabletrader on bp.....kept taking the pills and feeling much better thanks!!)

 

[TheBramble]

Is the moral of this story that after a couple of outstanding trading weeks, you should move away from the system and let it incurr the losses that it needs to average things out?

Not sure if you were joking or not Jilly, but no, unless you know exactly which weeks will be the losing ones!

If you're trading a system with positive expectancy then keep trading it.

That's the whole point of the discipline. Four losers in a row will test anyone’s mettle the first time it happens, but as a seasoned trader, and with a historically sound W:L and if you’re risking only a small percentage of total capital on each trade, why worry?

If you haven’t already done so you can calculate your statistically worst case number of consecutive losers. And start worrying as you approach that number…!

 

[ChowClown]

Hi Chow,

You are thinking of going full-time. I wish you every success. Can you (would you?) tell us which company or companies you are thinking of using to trade fx please? I would be most interested.

(cabletrader on bp.....kept taking the pills and feeling much better thanks!!)

ah ha, good to see you!

I'm thinking of building the biz gradually, i'm able to generate income through what i do at the moment too - i have a great boss, who likes to trade and supports the plan.

I'll be using a raft of companies, from direct access to spreadbetting. I have used FXCM, Oanda and CapitalSpreads thus far, each with their own pros/cons.

 

[Benny Dorm]

ah ha, good to see you!

I'm thinking of building the biz gradually, i'm able to generate income through what i do at the moment too - i have a great boss, who likes to trade and supports the plan.

I'll be using a raft of companies, from direct access to spreadbetting. I have used FXCM, Oanda and CapitalSpreads thus far, each with their own pros/cons.

Thanks Chow, just sniffing around (literally!).

This is probably not the thread for this but there seems no clear winner.
http://www.topforexreview.com/brokers.htm is worth having a look at, albeit from an American point of view. I don't think they can spreadbet but her list is comprehensive.

Got Cable today but missed the run up on £/y early doors

 

[jacinto]

hi Chow,

good to see you around. hope all is well with you. nice cable trade you got there

i got burned this morning on AUDJPY for -18 unfortunately.

after that i lost connectivity with my platform and still cant solve it. wonder what is the problem. strange. anyway, kept me out of trouble.

catch u next week

 

[ChowClown]

hi Chow,

good to see you around. hope all is well with you. nice cable trade you got there

i got burned this morning on AUDJPY for -18 unfortunately.

after that i lost connectivity with my platform and still cant solve it. wonder what is the problem. strange. anyway, kept me out of trouble.

catch u next week

hi J, good to be back. Hope you and family are thriving.

I took a look at AUDJPY first thing; the 4hr dojis put me off, so it didn't make it to the watchlist.

Hope normal service resumes for you soon.

ATB

 

[jacinto]

hi J, good to be back. Hope you and family are thriving.

I took a look at AUDJPY first thing; the 4hr dojis put me off, so it didn't make it to the watchlist.

Hope normal service resumes for you soon.

ATB

thanks mate, same to you and your family.

i know what you mean with audyen. thought i was being wise prempting a breakout and got burned. this yen pair was the only one that didnt follow an initial move up at the time, so that is why i took it. unfortunately AUDUSD kicked a move down exactly 5 mins after my entry and that got me out.

well, at least it was quick and without pain. lately im getting my entries going into profit basically from start and no loss.....however it also seems my losses may end up following the same pattern

guess i am taking my trades at decision points, which is good.....as long as i keep a decent win-lose ratio, its fine.

anyway, no trades till monday. have a good weekend mate

j

 

[ChowClown]

lately im getting my entries going into profit basically from start and no loss.....however it also seems my losses may end up following the same pattern

guess i am taking my trades at decision points, which is good.....as long as i keep a decent win-lose ratio, its fine.

Pleased it's going well for you, J. Enjoy the w/e.

The cable long from this morning is now closed. One of the better days.