FX trading: Sept 24 - 28

[trendie]

we seem to be losing momentum here with these weekly threads!
they used to be more popular when there were trading calls, is that what is needed?
(I improved my sense of calm when I stopped reading other calls as they sometimes conflicted with my own; this can be natural when we trade off differetn time-frames, and so there is a different context.)

the threads seemed to enjoy an increase in readership when rav returned with his calls.

 

[JillyB]

Morning Trendie,

I hope the thread is not going to die a death. I always like to see what everyone else is trading and how they're doing.

My overnight trade took +60 pips on the cable - which was very welcome to someone who has yet another stinking cold - I've only been rid of the last one for three weeks!

Anyway for me there's nothing much doing at the moment - I'll review the situation at 9am. There was a nice doji through the top bollinger at 8am on the 1 hour chart of the cable - wanted to trade it, but CMC charts were up the swannee - lots of gaps everywhere and not making much sense. I have ProRealtime as back-up charting to CMC and by the time I'd got that up and running to check the price/candle formation the trade had already moved. With these sort of reversal trades I only look to take between 10 - 20 pips on (usually 20 if it's in the morning session).

Has anyone noticed how we tend to get a reversal candle at 8am on the cable. If the price is heading up before 8am then a lot of times after 8am it will start to reverse. It doesn't happen all the time, but it would be interesting to look at to see if something could be worked out. (Think I've just got myself a morning's backtesting there! )

 

[TheBramble]

we seem to be losing momentum here with these weekly threads!
they used to be more popular when there were trading calls, is that what is needed?

I tend to think the opposite Trendie, but that’s just my view.

Loads of posts with individuals ‘calls’ without any analysis, logic used or reasoning seems of little value. I used to enjoy doing the Frankfurt/London open, inner/outer band thing and picking out local and longer S&R, but realised I was just doing it because I enjoyed it, not because anyone else necessarily found it useful. I hoped it would serve for those with more experience in this area to straighten out some of the more off-the-wall analyses and ideas and setups and help identify more realistic stop stetting strategies and the like, but like I say, that all gets lost in the sound-bite nature of individual calls.

I think there’s possibly an interest in outlining the major levels for both intraday and longer term players in FX and possibly doing that for each of the popular rather than major currency pairs (say GBP, USD and EUR). Debate around the structure of the markets (not just currencies specifically) and views ranging from the fundamental to the purely technical would be not only useful, but of a higher quality I’m sure than you would find on the mainstream media channels. Whether they would stay on the quality track is debateable and unlikely based on previous experience. Maybe it’s just Monday…

 

[TheBramble]

Has anyone noticed how we tend to get a reversal candle at 8am on the cable. If the price is heading up before 8am then a lot of times after 8am it will start to reverse. It doesn't happen all the time, but it would be interesting to look at to see if something could be worked out. (Think I've just got myself a morning's backtesting there! )

Yeah, Look at Frankfurt 'open' which tends to normally throw a complete cycle (up/down or down/up) ending up roughly where it started when London 'opens' an hour later. Then London will fade it's 'intended' ealry morning direction for the first 30-60 mins till 8am.

You get the same reversal pattern in most markets in the first half-hour to hour. More often than not anyway.

 

[trendie]

yes, TheBramble, I agree that calls without analysis tend to have minimal value.
useful calls were from ChowClown and his VEBO, and zuke used to have a couple of vegas type calls.

also agree that broader market analysis could provide framework for smaller time-frame trading, esp as some here have day-to-day knowledge of what the banks and funds seem to be doing.

have a good week everyone.

 

[JTrader]

Analysis is helpful, but having the time to contribute your own meaningful analysis while paying full attention to your own trading is testing, and a thankless task.

Personally, i have always found the best value in this thread in it being a support group of sorts. However, this is also this threads biggest weakness IMO.....

 

[jacinto]

short from 61, stop is now -5, soon to move to BE, and still dont have a target

i am increasingly using line charts rather than bars or candles (still have them open in the next door chart). incredible the amount of information they give :cheesy:

edit: this trade ended as a breakeven trade. too bad

 

[hornblower]

I tend to think the opposite Trendie, but that’s just my view.

Loads of posts with individuals ‘calls’ without any analysis, logic used or reasoning seems of little value. I used to enjoy doing the Frankfurt/London open, inner/outer band thing and picking out local and longer S&R, but realised I was just doing it because I enjoyed it, not because anyone else necessarily found it useful. I hoped it would serve for those with more experience in this area to straighten out some of the more off-the-wall analyses and ideas and setups and help identify more realistic stop stetting strategies and the like, but like I say, that all gets lost in the sound-bite nature of individual calls.

I think there’s possibly an interest in outlining the major levels for both intraday and longer term players in FX and possibly doing that for each of the popular rather than major currency pairs (say GBP, USD and EUR). Debate around the structure of the markets (not just currencies specifically) and views ranging from the fundamental to the purely technical would be not only useful, but of a higher quality I’m sure than you would find on the mainstream media channels. Whether they would stay on the quality track is debateable and unlikely based on previous experience. Maybe it’s just Monday…

I am not posting a lot at the moment , or trading , as the trading pattens do not suit my trading style ,and it may be the same for other traders

I do not feel compelled to trade every day , I only trade if the set up is right

I surpose I should not be posting this as it has no tec analysis to back it up

 

[Mr.Black]

I am long on EUR/USD...

 

[2be]

I am not posting a lot at the moment , or trading , as the trading pattens do not suit my trading style ,and it may be the same for other traders

I do not feel compelled to trade every day , I only trade if the set up is right

I surpose I should not be posting this as it has no tec analysis to back it up

Agree that it is not good to be compelled or "addicted" to trade, overtrading usually brings losses. In times like that it is good to do something positive, further reading or study a market and what makes it tick, or just take the time off trading completely and go fishing. Fortunately there is a lot of good books and other printed material to have a look at. I am just finishing "The Market Wizards" and "The New Market Wizards" by Jack D Schwager, which contains is a collection of interviews with successful traders. It has been a relaxing reading, although other books demand a more study e.g. Tom DeMark's books on market timing and analysis or Steve Nison legendary books on Japanese candlesticks. I find the markets fascinating and though I do not trade all the time at the moment I try to be in touch with the market by doing some further studies.

 

[trendie]

bad start to the week. lost 20 pips on DAX. (I know its not FX)
should have stayed with EURJPY.

 

[JillyB]

Never mind Trendie - It's been a quiet day - Monday's often are - and it's so easy to get drawn into trading other things.

 

[ChowClown]

Evening all, just popped by to say i'll be able to contribute more regularly from now on, as i'm finally moving towards full-time trading. Can't believe it's taken 4 years to get to this point, but hey, you know what it's like

I'll be trading the UK session, with the odd spillage into the later US - looking forward to being around more and learning. I'm still running an automated VEBO variant which chugs in the background, the majority of time will be spent using multiple timeframes (as per '3 ducks' approach) to id value areas across the majors and Yens mainly.

Currently long G/J, A/J from late this a'noon and just nudging into profit.

It would be great to see the thread busy again.

 

[ampro]

Currently long G/J, A/J from late this a'noon and just nudging into profit.

Hope your positions didn't get too badly bruised into Tokyo CC? That shift was the final trading gig of the Jap fiscal half year, always likely to kick up a bit of extra volatility as Exporters tend to settle & balance etc.

That month long headline level up there at 234.50 is also proving a tough nut to crack at the mo.

All the best by the way, on your journey into f/t trading! Hope all your losses are real titchy one's

 

[ChowClown]

Morning,

Took losses on both the GBP/JPY and AUD/JPY overnight.

My watchlist for longs today includes: GBP/USD, EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF.

I use the 15min for entries.

Good luck today.

 

[ChowClown]

Hope your positions didn't get too badly bruised into Tokyo CC? That shift was the final trading gig of the Jap fiscal half year, always likely to kick up a bit of extra volatility as Exporters tend to settle & balance etc.

That month long headline level up there at 234.50 is also proving a tough nut to crack at the mo.

All the best by the way, on your journey into f/t trading! Hope all your losses are real titchy one's

Hi ampro, thankfully the losses were small and thanks for your note

 

[ChowClown]

...quick snapshot of current longs.

 

[ChowClown]

...will take N/U long too, if offered.

 

[ChowClown]

...quick snapshot of current longs.

OK, first target area hit on E/J. Stops to b/e.

 

[JillyB]

Well it's been a dreadful week for my overnight system - 4 losing trades in a row and my account is well and truly suffering.

In truth, the past six weeks have been losing for the system, -109 pips overall for the last six weeks. However the two weeks previous to this were +188 pips and +200 pips, so over the last eight weeks this would have been +279 pips - which averages to just over 34 pips per week. (The system average for the last year is 38 pips, so it's not far adrift from this).

Is the moral of this story that after a couple of outstanding trading weeks, you should move away from the system and let it incurr the losses that it needs to average things out?

Let's just hope that it gets back on an even keel soon - my account is woeful at the moment and I need something to cheer me up. The problem is that when things go this bad I lose total confidence in my own ability to do this and wonder if trading is something I can actually do with any degree of success .....