FX Trading May 28 - June 1

[Crap Buddist]

+46, covered that short @ 1.9818. But on that news release, both my platform and charts dropped offline , and then left with critical load errors on my charts, so only 1 of 4 loaded. which means ive got reconfigure the buggers...

not funny when that happens.

So thats me out for the rest of the day at least. Ive cracked a beer open though.

 

[oiltanker]

that short up by 1.99 was the one to take. As i work on orders usually at r3 [then with limit r2 or r1] the actual just stopped under r3 1.9900 so sell order didn't activate.

On the daily the candle looks like it confirms downward direction? this looks to be backed up by the COT report that has

# The latest IMM report as of the close of trading last Tuesday show that aggregate USD shorts were scaled back to the lowest level since March 2007. The USD worth of positioning fell to -5.5bn from -18.7bn previously.
# The bullish USD sentiment was broad-based as EUR, AUD, GBP and CAD net longs were scaled back whereas JPY and CHF net shorts were extended.

Has anyone tried cot reports as part of a strategy?

http://www.actionforex.com/forex_an...ips_positive_is_dollar_bullish_2007052922364/

http://www.actionforex.com/forex_an...ng:_sentiment_more_usd_bullish_2007052922335/

 

[trendie]

that short up by 1.99 was the one to take. As i work on orders usually at r3 [then with limit r2 or r1] the actual just stopped under r3 1.9900 so sell order didn't activate.

On the daily the candle looks like it confirms downward direction? this looks to be backed up by the COT report that has

# The latest IMM report as of the close of trading last Tuesday show that aggregate USD shorts were scaled back to the lowest level since March 2007. The USD worth of positioning fell to -5.5bn from -18.7bn previously.
# The bullish USD sentiment was broad-based as EUR, AUD, GBP and CAD net longs were scaled back whereas JPY and CHF net shorts were extended.

Has anyone tried cot reports as part of a strategy?

http://www.actionforex.com/forex_an...ips_positive_is_dollar_bullish_2007052922364/

http://www.actionforex.com/forex_an...ng:_sentiment_more_usd_bullish_2007052922335/

hi oiltanker,

could you give a running commentary this week regarding how to use COT data to trade?
didnt realise we had a Pivot player here; another trading method being used!

EDIT: I suppose pivots are good, as you may be trading just one good move per day; useful for fire-and-forget, rather than screen-watching?

 

[oiltanker]

i was hoping someone might have used cot so they could tell me!

the only thing i know about cot is it is said to give a direction of trend in as much those who invest billions usually don't day trade 5 times a day but hold long term positions they review each week.
interestingly they have another chart that shows the general non institution positions and its usually the opposite of the the big players. still its all new to me so at the moment i am just looking for confirmation. at the momemt it says usd is getting stronger which would suggest cable down or at least ranging?.

as i don't watch the screens all day i do just set up orders and limits in an attempt to ambush the actual and hopefully the elephant falls into one of my pits . so i can come back to the screen and find both an order and its limit might have been taken out. or not as the case may be.

my system is not strictly pivot but the r lines on my screen so i just count up three or four lines depending on the spacing and set an order. which is why i got caught out the other week when cable went up 5 r lines! as did euro today!

 

[Phil Mibbutz]

Me too, and I've already gained a deep insight into the FX markets. Might even go long on cable again.
btw, Oiltanker, if you're still out there, your earlier comment about TPF's posts seemed perfectly reasonable to me. I'd always wondered the same thing, as a matter of fact.

 

[Crap Buddist]

Me too, and I've already gained a deep insight into the FX markets. Might even go long on cable again.
btw, Oiltanker, if you're still out there, your earlier comment about TPF's posts seemed perfectly reasonable to me. I'd always wondered the same thing, as a matter of fact.

, charts nearly rebuilt, long suggested here 1.9813/14 stop 1.9793.

The annoying thing was the desktop templates, that should of saved didnt, so Ive made multiple savings.

Beers good though. I can see upside .....

 

[JCWiseman]

28 May 2007 22:07


Yen: update

The Dollar/Yen traded as expected throughout the previous 24 hours or so. No surprises here. With the Asian open, expect progressive trading. Eyeing 121.50 from the 121.77 level. A breach will see a 121.30 exit overnight into early morning.


Dollar: Update

Dollar resilience seen on Thursday and Friday may be showing signs of exhaustion. The beginnings of a gradual weakening over the next couple of days looks possible across the currency majors. GBP could be set to test the 1.9900 key level. The Euro may be seeking out the 1.3550 levels.




29 May 2007 08:40

Yen update:

The Dollar/Yen performed precisely as expected overnight with an initial move down to the 121.50 level from the indicated sell area of 121.77 and the subsequent move lower still to the 121.20’s level. Position now closed.




29 May 2007 09:35

GBP: update

GBP has seen a very early run at the 1.9900 level. Sideways ranging at 1.9870 -1.9890 could now develop with further tests of the key level. A breach of 1.9900 (earlier rather than later) will see 1.9980 targeted.

29 May 2007 09:54

Euro: update

The Euro has traded higher, inline with expectations. Reaching 1.3470’s in early trade. It looks perfectly poised for an assault on the 1.3500 quite early on. 1.3500 if breached will see 1.3550 level targeted.


29 May 2007 11:51

GBP: update

Final update.

The GBP has made a second foray at the key 1.9900 level as expected. The ranging is now being seen at the 1.9870 area. US open will bring further headway and not unexpectedly a breach of the key level 1.9900 should follow.

The Pearl fisher.

Dear Sir,

I am most interested in having a discussion, if possible, with you regarding your market commentary .

I have made efforts to contact you via the messaging system but it appears I cannot contact you this way. It may be due to the fact I have limited post counts and cannot yet use this facility.

If you could please contact me on the following email address I would be most grateful.

[email protected]

Jacob

 

[JillyB]

Well I think I missed most of today's action being at work.

If everything stays the same on the cable, I will be looking to go short tonight and I will post an update later on this.

My demo account was up £300 this morning with the Eur/Yen closing, but the Eur/USD went right out in the wrong direction before coming back I'm currently -11 on this, so not too bad really. I'm trying out some trading strategies that seem to work quite well, except that they have really large stops on them and I want to see them in action on a demo before I even THINK of letting them near my real (extremely hard earnt) money!

I think if you were in the market for trading breakouts, then today was an excellent day. The Eur/USD is one I like for this and it really did it's stuff this morning - I would have been well in profit had I been here to trade it! Still it's another positive tick in the box for it.

 

[Phil Mibbutz]

If everything stays the same on the cable, I will be looking to go short tonight
QUOTE]

From my pov, I hope you're wrong about that, but good luck, anyway!

 

[2be]

i was hoping someone might have used cot so they could tell me!

the only thing i know about cot is it is said to give a direction of trend in as much those who invest billions usually don't day trade 5 times a day but hold long term positions they review each week.
interestingly they have another chart that shows the general non institution positions and its usually the opposite of the the big players. still its all new to me so at the moment i am just looking for confirmation. at the momemt it says usd is getting stronger which would suggest cable down or at least ranging?.

as i don't watch the screens all day i do just set up orders and limits in an attempt to ambush the actual and hopefully the elephant falls into one of my pits . so i can come back to the screen and find both an order and its limit might have been taken out. or not as the case may be. Try this fo more info: http://wiadomosci.onet.pl/1542773,11,item.html

my system is not strictly pivot but the r lines on my screen so i just count up three or four lines depending on the spacing and set an order. which is why i got caught out the other week when cable went up 5 r lines! as did euro today!

The most important re COT is the commercial interest, usually opposite to the non-commercial, it is published in the US and relates to the number of options being taken. Needless to say that the commercial interrest is usually achieved. For day trading it is usefull as it provides with a direction, though one has to be able to interpret the corralation of the given short term price performance, and longer term interests of the commercials commited to the given options with a definitive option expiery date. I think COT is published forthnightly. Try his one for more info http://www.shatterfield.com/cot.tutorials.php

 

[Offshore Trader]

Jilly

On the breakouts, EUR against anything was fine but of course cable went higher only to retreat and so if you were running a "set the traps and leave alone" strategy then cable would be stopped out. Personally, I trade cable and EUR/JPY and results were -45 and + 79 so net plus today

 

[JillyB]

From my pov, I hope you're wrong about that, but good luck, anyway!

Sorry, I can only tell what I see and what my system tell me! :|

 

[JillyB]

Jilly

On the breakouts, EUR against anything was fine but of course cable went higher only to retreat and so if you were running a "set the traps and leave alone" strategy then cable would be stopped out. Personally, I trade cable and EUR/JPY and results were -45 and + 79 so net plus today

On the Eur/Yen, I only look for breakouts between 7.00am and 9.00am and then wait for it to pullback before trading it. The Eur/Usd I trade as soon as it breaks through by more than 1 pip and then look for it to break the trend on a 5 min chart - today that would have given me a 48 pip profit - I would have been more than happy with this! :cheesy:

 

[fibonelli]

The most important re COT is the commercial interest, usually opposite to the non-commercial, it is published in the US and relates to the number of options being taken. Needless to say that the commercial interrest is usually achieved. For day trading it is usefull as it provides with a direction, though one has to be able to interpret the corralation of the given short term price performance, and longer term interests of the commercials commited to the given options with a definitive option expiery date. I think COT is published forthnightly. Try his one for more info http://www.shatterfield.com/cot.tutorials.php

Hi 2be,

Are you saying that you would look at the commercials as a guide to direction?

Fibonelli

 

[2be]

Hi 2be,

Are you saying that you would look at the commercials as a guide to direction?

Fibonelli

Commercials in forex are often hedging and as such they are often on the other side of the extreems in relation to the trade, so in a roundabout way if the polarity between commercials and not commercials is at extreme, I would take it that the commercials have made their money other way and are quite happy to let the options go at a loss, a bit like an insurance policy, taken just in case their other activity brough them loss. COT provides sentiment rather that trade signals, but is very helpful in relation to the study of the market,s trend, and its strenght.

 

[JillyB]

Forgot to post my entry last night - I took a sell trade at 1.9813 at 22.54 on the cable.

Just got out now at 1.9795 - for a nice 15 pip profit.

 

[oiltanker]

2be

thanks for the cot site. the videos are great. to watch a trend go on for months is awesome. i had no idea how important contract liquidation was although its obvious when someone points it out. As we are coming up to the june expiration it makes sense the markets are dipping as liquidation happens?

 

[trendie]

good start for JillyB.
I am looking for a pull-back to rejoin the down-move.
(on the 60-mins, the upper-boll-band (21,2) is at 1.9845 and dropping, so about there?)

 

[a_gnome]

good start for JillyB.
I am looking for a pull-back to rejoin the down-move.
(on the 60-mins, the upper-boll-band (21,2) is at 1.9845 and dropping, so about there?)

After taking a couple of hits yesterday trying to go long I finally took a short at 810, took half off at 770 this morning and am still holding the other half. Will also be looking to add to this position on a pull back of some sort.

 

[trendie]

gone short with 1 unit at 1.9768. (dont want to miss out on move)
will still take a "better" short at better prices, shoudl it pullback.

nominal trade.

EDIT: 1 unit equates to about 1/5 normal size. (size dependent on volatility)