FX Trading Dec 03-07

[2be]

cheers trendie

Great to see you back DC!!!

 

[andycs]

I am long at 260, I think the downward move is overdone, the MPC will ease 25 at the most. Their target is inflation, not bailing out the housing/credit markets, 50 is out of the question (hopefully!).

Just dipping my toe in the water after lots of lurking, watching and learning...

 

[dc2000]

Great to see you back DC!!!

cheers 2be

looking at cable with the price going lower than the 608 and no pullback in US sesh to 356 a long is still on the cards but not yet first we want a better price 135 would do

 

[bbmac]

Fair recovery off the lows at 0215 area gbpusd this London morning, helped by better than expected Ind and manuf prod numbers (final nail in coffin of rate cut at 12pm gmt??)

Price finds resistance at this 23.6% of the move down from yesterdays high for a 35 pip sell-off, although recovered somewhet as I write this. This 0310 area is the last lower swing high on 15/30/1hr in the downtrend.

MNi suggesting offers 0300-0320 area likely, 0345/60 above this. 0361 is 23.6% of 0832-025, and 38.2% of yesterdays high at 0594-0215 this mornings low

 

[bbmac]

So, a breech back short through that 0242-0496 4hr/daily congestion area to lows at 0215. I guess it depends on BOE/Mpc rate decision (last vove 7-2 for n/c) and U.s NFP tomorrow for medium term direction?

 

[bbmac]

The screenshot shows the 1min (trigger) set-up at that 0300/10 local resistance area discussed above. Oscillator divergence together with band/channel deviation combine to give a high prtobability set-up.

(1min Rev A seq)

 

[bbmac]

Latest: implied 38% chance of 0.25% rate cut at 12midday gmt BOE/Mpc.

 

[bbmac]

Looking a little further out , attached is the 4hr chart, the chart areas potentially resistive in any extended recovery off 0215 earlier lows.

 

[bbmac]

T-10mins

 

[bbmac]

http://www.ecb.int/home/html/index.en.html
essential viewing re ECB?Trichet press conference at 1330pm gmt Lol.

 

[fibonelli]

UK: 25bp cut

 

[shadowninja]

Latest: implied 38% chance of 0.25% rate cut at 12midday gmt BOE/Mpc.

Did the market think it would be a hold or increase, then?

 

[bbmac]

Did the market think it would be a hold or increase, then?

There was a mixed view on it really, ie inflation risks -vs- slowing growth/housing market etc... Actaully Mpc is targetted only on CPi inflation, but there you go.

ADP reckon +189k for U.s NFP tomorrow, so we'll see. Trichet up next, ....always great viewing...................zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

 

[FXSCALPER2]

There was a mixed view on it really, ie inflation risks -vs- slowing growth/housing market etc... Actaully Mpc is targetted only on CPi inflation, but there you go.

ADP reckon +189k for U.s NFP tomorrow, so we'll see. Trichet up next, ....always great viewing...................zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Yes I love watching Trichet: very suave and unflappable.lol. As for the BOE, the market clearly expected a cut (so did I). The UK is looking pretty bad right now and you could see the smart money expected a cut because they sold the GBP sharply starting yesterday. Why the economists were expecting a hold is a mystry to me. If that cut was really unexpected, the pound would have stayed up yesterday and it would have been carnage after the release. The market is a discounting mechanism and that discounting happens before the news when it is expected and after the news when it isn't. The GBPUSD is pretty much where it was this morning precisely because this hike was priced in.

We can still get a down move if expectations continue to be negative for the UK housing market and the economy, but it won't be because of the .25% cut any longer because markets are not that slow to adjust in this day and age. However, if we get a move down on GBP, you can bet your life bloomberg will say 'due to the BOE rate cut'. losers!

When you think about it, it is all bullshi't. The trick with trading on fundies is to realise that it is all bullcra'p and participate in that c'rap. What I did was go short just before the news because I was sure it was going to be a cut. The trouble was I put a really tight stop and it got hit. Bummer! lol. I did it with Capital Spreads just for fun (£10/pip). My stop wasn't filled for ages and it was showing about £500 profit and I tried to cheat and close it. Oh no, it wasn't allowed. haha.

This is too much fun.

 

[bbmac]

50% fib of the current Yearly Low to high (9183-1162) at 0171 contained the rate cut reaction fall. Accompanying statement being viewed as hawkish so far. 23.6% of the 7047-1163 in vicinity at 0187 as well.

Irving Stelzer said on newsnight BBC2 last night, that god invented economic forecasters to make waether forecasters look good, Lol.

 

[bbmac]

Minor weekly swin g high in the vicinity too, see chart.

 

[bbmac]

smart recovery off lows, now finding resistance as spikes up to record a new marginal daily high just above this last lower swing high of last 15/30/1hr SBR zone.

MNi talking about offers 0310-20 ahead of 0345/55 /60 area. 0361-64 houses 3 x fibs incl 38.2% of 0678 - todays lows

 

[bbmac]

local resistance is clear:

 

[bbmac]

The 1min set-up was clear to sell

Breeches of the 1 and 5min fib tunnels and 1/5/15min donchian channels , stochs extreme o/b 90+ reads to 15min...plus a divergence set-up on main 1min chart

(1min Reversal A (ii) seq.)

 

[bbmac]

look more closely at the trigger chart, a whole reversal candle closing outside 20bol...extreme deviation!