FX Trade Setups, Entries, Management and Exit

[Purple Brain]

Both eur/jpy & usd/jpy pulling back up to the 49 average and providing a potential setup for a short position.

 

[Purple Brain]

eur/jpy appears to be potentially bouncing off the experimental 17 average in which case, if it did develop and I took the trade it would be on quarter normal size. However, the usd/jpy is potentially bouncing off the primary 49 average which is far more important to me which means I'll probably just risk it that one jpy pair - the usd/jpy.

usd/jpy short stop will be placed at 99.89 which is 10 pips above yesterday's low and just above today's open. I have a couple of other softer technical s/r levels below that stop level so the price will have to eat through all of that to get to my stop.

 

[Purple Brain]

Forgot to mention: the usd/jpy short, if triggered will not only be coming off the 49 average, but also the daily S1. It will also, as it breaks down, be below the half century level at 99.50. Harks back to what I said before about the move being more likely if the 49 average level is also one or more other technical s/r levels.

 

[Purple Brain]

Oh damn! It would be breaking down, but not from a lower higher high. 04:45 BST was a local high at 99.626 and the most recent high, the previous bar at 09:00 is also at 99.626. I'll not anger the gods and quibble over no difference at all. It's probably a good sign. I'll take it if it signals an entry.

 

[Purple Brain]

usd/jpy short at 99.53 stop at 99.89.

 

[Purple Brain]

Post #45 two above - I meant not breaking down from a lower high not a lower higher high whatever the devil that might be. I won't edit any posts in case anyone cries foul.

 

[Purple Brain]

Sod's law. I'm not unhappy with the usd/jpy short, but I would have been happier with the eur/jpy short which I rejected as being less solid. When the whole point of my experimental 17 average is that it may potentially be more useful in stronger underlying moves, perhaps my decision making needs a little attention.

 

[Purple Brain]

usd/jpy short closed at 99.51 for +2 on a risk of 36. MAE 3. MFE 9. Didn't like the action.

 

[Purple Brain]

A big thank you to Timsk for editing post #1 to include some additional text and the charts that I use. The latter was suggested as a useful accompaniment to my posts in this thread. Seeing them in the cold light of day I'm not so sure now. But please feel free to challenge and suggest anything and everything. I need a great deal of seasoned advice. I'll even take the unseasoned if it works.

 

[Purple Brain]

usd/jpy short closed at 99.51 for +2 on a risk of 36. MAE 3. MFE 9. Didn't like the action.

Note to Self: Define "don't like".

 

[Shakone]

A big thank you to Timsk for editing post #1 to include some additional text and the charts that I use. The latter was suggested as a useful accompaniment to my posts in this thread. Seeing them in the cold light of day I'm not so sure now. But please feel free to challenge and suggest anything and everything. I need a great deal of seasoned advice. I'll even take the unseasoned if it works.

There are about 20 indicators there. Are you really using them all in any meaningful way? If I had all that I'd have analysis paralysis.

 

[Purple Brain]

There are about 20 indicators there. Are you really using them all in any meaningful way? If I had all that I'd have analysis paralysis.

I think my trading record speaks for itself – No, I’m not.

I’ve got a couple of even longer (than the 130) period moving averages and an ichimoku cloud which I don’t ‘use’ specifically, but they do give me a context within which to work. If all the averages are in the correct order and the price is above the ichimoku cloud it’ll add weight to an up bias. I don’t analyse them specifically, but it’s more of an ‘at a glance’ thing.

True the Williams %. MACD and Stochastics and xmeter stuff I don’t even look at now – they really don’t need to be there at all. Just legacy stuff – it was ‘vital’ at some point in the past. Discarded the use of now, but not the screen space.

The s/r levels on chart 3 I use a lot for judging potential entry and exit points and the CCI and TDI are demonstrably useful in defining exits – it’s just a pity I don’t wait for them to signal as I invariably get out of a profitable position too soon. And too late on the losers.

I did have a go at clearing out all the extraneous stuff a while back and the screen I was left with was so bare it looked devoid of information. I suspect I’m missing the obvious in that last statement.

Thanks for the comments. Genuinely appreciated.

 

[timsk]

I need a great deal of seasoned advice. I'll even take the unseasoned if it works.

Like a really good, tasty plate of grub, it's all down to the seasoning!


Whilst I'm sure there are profitable traders somewhere who use multiple indicators, as a general rule of thumb, fewer there are - the better. As Shakone rightly says, the more you have, the more likely they are to conflict which, almost inevitably, will result in skipping trades that would have been profitable or entering trades too late. If all your indicators concur, then you're using ones of similar construction and purpose, which won't really help.

You must know why you are using each indicator and what it tells you that can't be derived from price itself or another indicator you're already using. For more on indicators, check out the section entitled 'Indicators and the Mechanics of TA' found in this Sticky: What is Technical Analysis (TA) and does it Work?
Tim.

 

[Purple Brain]

Increasingly drawn toward giving greater significance to this experimental 17 average. Take the aud/jpy this morning for instance - bad employment data sends the aussie straight down at 02:30 BST. Not been within a far cry of the 49 average since, but there have been two useful touches to the 17 average; one at 05:00 and one at 09:15 (all BST) which was arguably more borderline.

An additional point is that the primary basis for assigning a potential setup for a trade is really just on a couple of moving averages and the price action around them, not all the other gubbins on my charts. Even the stuff which is useful such as the exits related inds on chart 3 have the code called from the primary entry & exits screen (chart 5 - the one with all 28 pairs covered) so I don't need them on display anywhere. I really need to give the charts a clean up true, but I don't believe the extraneous stuff being there is stopping my going into a trade. I get the sense it's more my management of a trade when I'm in one that's letting me down.

That's not to say I'm not missing loads of trades by insisting the price does this with respect to this moving average etc - I'm sure many have it even simpler than that.

 

[Shakone]

Developing a good plan, based on a chart with just price alone, is a big undertaking. Developing one with 20 indicators is mind-boggling (to me). If you don't use them, perhaps removing them would be a good idea.

Anyway, I've just noticed that my MAs don't work properly on my charts, because AUD/JPY doesn't touch the 17MA on my 15 min chart until the 8:30-8:45 bar. Weird.

 

[Purple Brain]

Developing a good plan, based on a chart with just price alone, is a big undertaking. Developing one with 20 indicators is mind-boggling (to me). If you don't use them, perhaps removing them would be a good idea.

Which is precisely what I’m going to do. Just leave the stuff on there that I do use. Easier to find the culprit. Which is most likely the person typing this right now than any indicator.

Anyway, I've just noticed that my MAs don't work properly on my charts, because AUD/JPY doesn't touch the 17MA on my 15 min chart until the 8:30-8:45 bar. Weird.

Embarrassing moment. My moving averages are all Exponential – which won’t make that much difference – but the 17 is an Adaptive Moving Average which is called AMA. I know I adapted it to put in the blue and red momentum dots, but certainly wasn’t something I created.

I put a basic 17 moving average on the chart and that ties in precisely with your comments. I really need to be a lot more precise in what it is I’m talking about if I’m not going to end up wasting everybody’s time – even more than I am currently.

 

[Splitlink]

Increasingly drawn toward giving greater significance to this experimental 17 average. Take the aud/jpy this morning for instance - bad employment data sends the aussie straight down at 02:30 BST. Not been within a far cry of the 49 average since, but there have been two useful touches to the 17 average; one at 05:00 and one at 09:15 (all BST) which was arguably more borderline.

An additional point is that the primary basis for assigning a potential setup for a trade is really just on a couple of moving averages and the price action around them, not all the other gubbins on my charts. Even the stuff which is useful such as the exits related inds on chart 3 have the code called from the primary entry & exits screen (chart 5 - the one with all 28 pairs covered) so I don't need them on display anywhere. I really need to give the charts a clean up true, but I don't believe the extraneous stuff being there is stopping my going into a trade. I get the sense it's more my management of a trade when I'm in one that's letting me down.

That's not to say I'm not missing loads of trades by insisting the price does this with respect to this moving average etc - I'm sure many have it even simpler than that.

I use EMA's. too. I think that they make good entry points when they are trending well but they give whipsaws on the lower TFs. I transfer the hourly levels across to the lower TFs because the latter's averages move around too much. Have you read the "Cornflower" thread on ff?. I think that his specific indicators make for slow trading, but his idea is good.

Good trading.

 

[Purple Brain]

I use EMA's. too. I think that they make good entry points when they are trending well but they give whipsaws on the lower TFs. I transfer the hourly levels across to the lower TFs because the latter's averages move around too much. Have you read the "Cornflower" thread on ff?. I think that his specific indicators make for slow trading, but his idea is good.

Good trading.

Putting whatever period moving averages you use on your hourly chart X4 on a 15 minute chart would give you almost the same levels I think so you wouldn't need to transfer the levels. Or have I misunderstood?

I’m guessing ff is a trading website. I googled cornflower and see it’s an EMA x-over type setup which I will have a look at later on. Thanks for the tip.

I am trying to move away from more complexity and toward to less, but only if it makes sense to do so of course.

 

[Splitlink]

Putting whatever period moving averages you use on your hourly chart X4 on a 15 minute chart would give you almost the same levels I think so you wouldn't need to transfer the levels. Or have I misunderstood?

I’m guessing ff is a trading website. I googled cornflower and see it’s an EMA x-over type setup which I will have a look at later on. Thanks for the tip.

I am trying to move away from more complexity and toward to less, but only if it makes sense to do so of course.

Yes, I guess you are right but they give a better trend indication on hourly, so I stick with them. Hey! My imagination, probably.

Those avs are the only indictors I use except for a Bollinger Channel.

You've helped me this morning, already, I'm a great one for letting the trades run, with SL, of course. I have just closed, a few minutes ago, a short on Euro/$. If I had left it, you can see how I would have cursed myself on arrival at work.

 

[Purple Brain]

You've helped me this morning, already, I'm a great one for letting the trades run, with SL, of course. I have just closed, a few minutes ago, a short on Euro/$. If I had left it, you can see how I would have cursed myself on arrival at work.

Not sure how I helped, but I'm happy to take credit even if it's not due.