FX Market Tips

[fertonadvisors]

Trading UPDATE

Hi everyone,

keeping the usd/jpy shorts @ 116 as my portfolio position at the moment. After all, it is only 1 week left for the so-expected China-US top-level meeting, and so I will stick to the trade for now.

Some interesting market moves could follow in the next 2-3 days, and so I am ready to start new fresh portfolio trades if I have the triggering signal. I am talking of the 4 majors, which I am carefully monitoring at the moment.

I'll keep you all posted of what I do..

David.

 

[fertonadvisors]

Market Update, Nov.13, 2005

It is widely known that the market only takes economic news into account when they suit the prevailing direction, but tends to easily ignore them when they do not.

Another flagrant example was on thursday, when US trade deficit widened to a worrying -$66bln figure, but market just hit new dollar highs against the euro. Interesting that such break higher against the euro was not followed by a sharp break on cable and/or swissy, thus reinforcing my view that this is a tricky market, where the clear and real direction has not yet been consolidated, and so no one can call a real mid-term being established so far.

From a trading point of view, and for those who read the journals forum this is redundant, I am sticking to my jpy portfolio, without adding new bullets on it. Admittedly, one could go for gbp/jpy shorts at these levels (205.70/206), and the risk/reward aiming for sub 204's could be OK, but since I am foreseeing possible triggers in majors in the near future, I prefer to keep the bullets for those new trading opportunities, and close the jpy current portfolio when appropiate.

Happy trading to everyone.
Tomorrow is another day. Surely a better one.

David

 

[rav700]

Hi everyone,

keeping the usd/jpy shorts @ 116 as my portfolio position at the moment. After all, it is only 1 week left for the so-expected China-US top-level meeting, and so I will stick to the trade for now.

Some interesting market moves could follow in the next 2-3 days, and so I am ready to start new fresh portfolio trades if I have the triggering signal. I am talking of the 4 majors, which I am carefully monitoring at the moment.

I'll keep you all posted of what I do..

David.

I am short @ 118.10

 

[fertonadvisors]

to rav700

Hi rav700,

your entry level is very good, and in my opinion you could aim for 100+ pips on this trade. Sorry for alte reply, been busy these days.

More comments on the fx market a bit later.

David

 

[fertonadvisors]

Trading Update, Nov 15, 2005

Hi everyone,

still enjoying the usd/jpy fight, but in the meantime I managed to sell gbp/jpy yesterday at 206.91, out at +55, and so my effective cost for my usd/jpy trade portfolio is now at 116.71. Once the correction takes place, I will square either flat or I would attempt for a tiny profit, but the fact is that this yen situation is not preventing me from getting good trades in other jpy crosses that are helping to get out dry of this situation.

In the currency forums I will post my market view later today, be welcome and feel free to post your feedback.

Happy trading to everyone.
Tomorrow is another day. Surely a better one.

David

 

[fertonadvisors]

Nov 15. Market Update

Rather manipulated market thus far when it comes to YEN(JPY)trading. From a logical point of view, one may remember the JPY siutation as the one in the euro last year and the previous one, with overextended moves without real base but only the "scared money following the trend hunting for stops" one. Today new highs were hit yet again, and the USD maanged to trade almost in the mid 119's. The following profit-taking allows to think that maybe sooner rather than later technicals could start working again on this major (usd/jpy) and so the other JPY crosses could start moving in a more rational way. (GBP and EUR have moved pretty well technically against the JPY, that is also true and must be said).

The USD managed to make new highs against the EUR and CHF, but overall the market looks pretty indecisive, and that is the main reason why I chose to trade the JPY in my portfolio for the time being. I must admit that the JPY markets have become the trickiest of them all ... and now what is only left is to close the portfolio at least "dry" and at the same time look for opportunities in the other markets that may be looking better on a technical basis.

Plenty of economic data this week will help the market to hunt for stops either way, and so one shoudl be careful with the positions, as things may change in a matter of hours from positive to negative and viceversa for a particular currency.

Happy trading to everyone.
Tomorrow is another day. Surely a better one.

David

 

[fertonadvisors]

Nov.20 TRADING update

Hi everyone,

in my effort to increase my effective cost in the usd/jpy-crusade portfolio I did the following:

* Sell cad/jpy @ 100.28, stop 102.98, target 93.75. I have 2 bullets left for this pair should I need them at some stage.

As for the usd/jpy situation, things are unchanged, as so this particular market has been.

Happy trading to everyone.

David

 

[fertonadvisors]

Nov 20, MARKET Update

Well, looks like the so-expected visit to China by US president Bush wasn't a market-shaking factor this time. Instead, the market reacted very aggressively to friday's hawkish comments by ECB president JP Trichet, who reiterated the fact that the ECB is going to hike interest rates soon....So what? Does that make any difference? Is 2.25% compared to 4 and soon 4.25-4.5% something the market should react so bravely? Well, you know, market and people always need for some excuses, specially the losers, who need to jusitfy the wheres and whys of their losses ... and so the week's action ended more or less where it had begun, but with the majors having hit yet again new and fresh 2-yr lows against the USD. Top-bottom fishers are starting to talk about possible retracements from current levels and a little bit more on that stuff, but I personally- at least for now,while we stay at current levels- should disagree. Even though the market may look a little bit reluctant to continue with their moves, from a technical analyst point of view, I think that sub 1.16 levels on the euro should be seen, and so then one might look for a more clean technical situation and better ups and downs. However, I also have some reserves to this statement, and I reason it below.

Although I am bullish short term in the USD, the JPY story is and can weigh on the greenback for some time. With clear overbought status, the pair could well be the leader this time of a broader consolidation, establishing a new range that also could be applied to the other majors. Should this be the case, my current LONG JPY against the USD portfolio (**) would, from its current effective cost around 117, turn into the green in the very near future, and I would manage to close it when the new ranges have been clearly established.


Happy trading to everyone.

David.

 

[fertonadvisors]

Nov 21 MARKET update

What can one say of today's session? Some will say that the ECB Governors do not have what it takes to drive the Eurozone economy; others will just say that the market keeps on being manipulated since last Friday; and maybe others will say that today was a great day for technical analysts, since the market did exactly what technical levels were anticipating.

I have to agree that today, despite what some may say, was a nice technical day, except, once again, for the almighty usd/jpy, who does not seem to run out of bids! The Euro dumped from the key resistance (for some) 1.1830 -Euro to me can be considered a buy above 1.1850, not 1.1830-, cable dumped from 1.7240, again hitting some stops on its way, specially those who were placed around 1.7225 (technical level to watch 1.7290 rather any other one on daily basis for a change of short term trend at the moemnt), and swissie did a good job without even testing 1.3040-50, which is ok.... I still see a rangebound market with lots of swings up and down, hitting stops on the way and no new trends being established (that is what I see now), so just be careful when trading, and trade lightly, best things to do at the moment.

As por any special pairs I am looking at, I am watching CAD crosses, as we are in good broad ranges overall for a CAD selling environment to last for some time, not yet signals triggered, but we are close.

Happy trading to everyone.

David.

 

[fertonadvisors]

nov 28, 2005 TRADING UPDATE

hi everyone,

back after 5 days of rest, really enjoyed them and feel ready to tackle this the last part of this 2005.

Quick update on my trades executed today:

1. Sold Cad/Jpy out of a sell lilmit order @ 102.50. ==> That leaves the situation:

2x Cad/jpy SOLD @ 101.93 average, target 96, stop above 103.

** Still 1 lot available on this one.

*** My USD/JPY portfolio remains intact with 5 X 117.02 SOLD.

My stop on this one is 122 and target is open. I will only take this one out and re-start with my diversified portfolio once the market proves me completely wrong or pays what it has to .... manipulation on the pair can't go on forever ...

Happy trading to everyone.

David.

 

[fertonadvisors]

nov 28, MARKET UPDATE

Hi again everyone!

the journal forum has been updated with my last trade and the overall portfolio situation, with my best hopes to end the jpy crusade in the near future and return to a more dynamic, well-diversified portfolio anytime soon (you can bet on that!!).

After a 5-day break it's great to be back tackling the exciting(¿?¿) month ahead, December, which will start FULL of economic data coming out, with the "climax" on Friday with the release of the NFP data, Greenspan speaking and maybe full-moon in the sky ... The fact is that what today was seen in the currency markets was maybe the end of the yen manipulation or just the room needed for a test higher. Obviously, I am as surprised as many of you that "manipulators" did not attempt and/or break the 120 mark, leaving the situation very suspicious at the moment, but rather relieving to my portfolio, with a close right onto the uptrend line, again a very suspicious case.

Surge in EURO and CABLE did not surprise me at all, since had I had the chances of entering the market in those 2 majors it would have been on the long side, despite friday's moves. Cable presented an excellent technical long even when it broke year lows, but the fact is that the 1.73 print and 1.19 print on euro looked again quite out of reality, since those longs looked to be good for 100 pips at first sight .... The majority of traders do not seem to realize that current range is so attractive for stop hunters that they are going to over-extend the moves just to hunt for stops to feed their appetite and they leave the situation at its own mercy.

Looking at the big picture, while euro holds below 1.1945 and cable below 1.7530, nothing has really changed, but these rallies sure make traders nervous and make them bail out of their positions even though they may be going with the trend. The only thing clear after today's session is that the amrket is going to be very volatile, exciting and itneresting till the end of the week. ANd to make the picture a little bit more odd, usd/jpy indicators look well overbought in the mid term while usd/cad ones are showing signs of strength .. which one will pull the other ???

Happy trading to everyone.

David.

 

[fertonadvisors]

I am back

Hi everybody!

did you miss me? Well I guess not 🙂)) but anyway it is just great to be back now that (FINALLY!!) the usd/jpy stubborn trades have come to an end.

As you might recall, I had the usd/jpy shorts 5 X 117.01, they have been all squared today at 117.05, that makes a total loss of -20 pips.

That was the official trade, ie, the one that I was able to put in the demo account. Since the platform I am suing for the demo does not allow to trade cad/jpy, and also did not allow me to trade gbp/jpy because of excess of margin (what a beautiful demo I opened! LOL), those 2 multi-shorts that were also closed with nice profit did not compute for the demo show.

All in all, the demo shows a healthy $108,264 equity balance (showing +850pip gain, far from the real +2,807 indeed achieved) before moving to another brokerage firm where all pairs will be able to be traded. Full statement can be seen in the site.

Therefore, I am going to start (right from today) the re-newed demo, the results of which will be an aggregate to the existent one, being able to trade the full pairs and also being able to show you full statements with all pairs traded.

My intention is to be as accurate as possible in timing when posting trades, but just excuse me if there is a bit of delay as I am now going to be very busy with accounts and all that stuff, you know....

Current Status: FLAT

HAPPY TRADING TO EVERYONE.

David.

 

[fertonadvisors]

Market Update

Hi everybody,

finally they made it. They left the yen boat to its own mercy and stopped pushing. They did it quite nice, pushing it to test the big weekly downtrend line back from 1998 to 121.40 ... and they knew they would also catch many people wrong-footed when they would start leaving the bull side.

And so that happened today. The usd/jpy (take gbp/jpy, cad/jpy or any other jpy denominated pair as you like) took a nice dive to the strong support at 118.30 in the morning. BY that time, many retailers jumped in like crazy maniacs and started buying, long yens were seen across the globe and in all forums for quick & easy pips, some retail-gurus said.

But the story proved them, once again, wrong. Those who laughed the ones like me, who were calling for an EXTREMELY overbought status from and around 118-119, jumped in for a test of the highs or even more to 122-124 .... just to see the 116.57 printing, right onto the 38.2% fibonacci level of the 108.94-121.40 move, exactly what was predicted some weeks before.

Although I quit the boat before even cashing pips on my open trades on usd/jpy (I cashed big time in cad/jpy and gbp/jpy), merely because I got a little bit bored with the situation, not a surprising one, but rather an annoying one for me (i'm getting old to get through these things time and time again), the hit of the 38.2% fibo did not surprise me at all, and what is more important, it will also not surprise me to end the year in the mid 115's.

Whether you ever take a look at the big picture or not, it is obvious that, despite any manipulation or childish games play by "they" ("they" just means the ones that earn the money we are willing to pay them and the ones that leave some money on the table for us, the retailers), the usd/jpy had an overbought status for some time, accentuated above 118-119, and no matter how far they pushed it, the faster the push the bigger the drop.

And so, in the end, logic prevailed, and even though this trade costed me a lot (not in money, but in terms of opportunity cost (was focused on it without trading other majors) and also in time cost), I came out dry, which is definitely ok.

Okay, so now time to watch more screens and try to get the more opportunities the better before year-end, looks like the majors want to give a real attempt, but not so sure it is a clear and valid attempt, I personally have many reserves on current moves and it wouoldn't suprise me a sharp reverse of the current situation.

HAPPY TRADING TO EVERYONE.

David.

 

[fxhint]

Looking for Forex Analyzers

I'm looking for people who would be interested in blogging in a new website with Forex Analysis, News, Tips topic. Please contact me in email if you're interested.

 

[nesho75]

Hii Every One There..
I Just Make A New Position On Oil At 36.50 @ 1£
Lets Hope It Work Out ,it Has Been Goin Down Every Day,i Think Is Time To Move Back Up..

 

[nesho75]

By The Way Any Body Gest Wath The Market Will Do On Friday?
Or On Tuesday Last Day Of 2008? There My Be A Good Surprice!!firger Xxx

 

[Yugal Kishore]

Bank stocks gain on expectations of further fall in inflation

The key benchmark indices remained firm in mid-morning trade on positive global cues, on expectations of a second government stimulus package for the slowing economy and on hopes of further rate cuts by the central bank. Bank stocks were firm ahead of the weekly inflation data. The BSE 30-share Sensex was up 104.39 points, or 1.06%. The market was, however, off the day's high. The Sensex was down close to 33 points from the day's high.