FX Empire's FX Analysis

Muted response to NFP, Swissy continues to build support......

Looking at the USD/CHF, the pair continues to build support just above the 0.9000 support area. Presently, we like the idea of owning the Dollar as it is a "safe haven", and the Franc is being worked against by the SNB. Talk of negative interest rates in Switzerland will add fuel to the fire in this pair, and as a result.....it has the ability to go up in good or back times. After the Non-Farm Payroll number came is just a fractional amount under expectations.....the market has been fairly muted in it's response.
 

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The grind continues in the Swissy.

The USD/CHF continues to grind higher, although the 0.93 has offered major resistance. The pair will more than likely continue to be influenced by the situation in the EU as all things seem to be currently. The breaking of the 0.93 level opens the door to the 0.95 level, and then after that parity. As long as there is a "risk off" environment out there, the USD is going to get a bid. Triple tops rarely happen, and this could be the start of the breakout. The EU absolutely has to pull it together later this week, or the run to the Dollar will continue. This pair will be one to watch going forward.
 

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Kiwi continues to tighten up.

The whole world is waiting to see what the Europeans will or won't do on Friday. This is expressed in the limited risk appetite that we are seeing in the various global financial markets this week. The Kiwi is a perfect example, as the range is clearly defined by the red box on this chart. In the mean time, we expect this range to hold for the next couple of days, and could provide scalping opportunities in both directions.
 

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Kiwi whipsaws, breaks lower.

The Kiwi dollar has been in a tight consolidation area over the last few days. The pair managed to break to the upside originally for the session as the EU cut rates. The ECB didn't mention buying more bonds though, and this lead to a day of selling risk overall. The Kiwi is always sensitive to this kind of sentiment, and as a result has now broken lower. It looks like we are going to see a run down to the gap from two weekends ago finally, unless there is some kind of miracle coming out of the EU after the summit.
 

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Swissy finally breaks out.

The USD/CHF pair has finally broken over the 0.93 level on a daily close. With this in mind, we continue to think 0.95 is in the cards, and this move higher is fairly significant. The parity level is where we are expecting this pair to head to after breaking through the 0.95 level. In this pair, we are continuing to buy the pullbacks as the SNB isn't allowing the Franc to appreciate much, and the USD is still the "safety trade". This pair continues to be very sensible at this point in our estimation.
 

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