Fx 2008

[wasp]

Yens

All yens are down (or up depending how you look at it!).... for now! :cheesy:

 

[trendie]

ok, wasp....

I want to illustrate why I cant understand your EURJPY post.

Your first sup/res line doesnt make sense until it hits point A on my representation of your chart. (since, unless you knew everything in advance (PLEASE lets not resurrect that nightmare ) the price, you couldnt draw that line until point A, when by then it had exhausted its potential upmove.

Your second line angle doesnt make sense until the yellow box is drawn, so the angle was open to interpretation until then. by then, about 50% of the move had happened.

the third upline doesnt make sense until point B happens.

I have added line S1. the line, from my perspective follows the logic of Sup/Res, in that it shows where price has shown support, ie, bounced up from.
At what point could you identify that the Sup-line would fail?

X3: for someone who believes the upmove is still valid could possibly misintrpret the pin-bar. followed by an inside bar as possible BUY conditions.
At what point is the Sup violated and a downmove the valid view?

Also, X2 could possibly be seen as a test of Sup-becomes-Res, but your third line shows it breaking above it. My line L2 would fail. ( anticipating a bounce off Res, which was once S1)

I have also drawn X1, where Sup is to be found. and line L1 as possible anticipated bounce. My interpretation would have failed, ie, S2 did not hold true.

I hope you dont mind me writing such a detailed reason why I dont understand Sup/Res, even though I go through phases of clarity with it, but I still rely on probabilities using indicators, since I believe your lines cannot have been drawn until a large percentage iof the move has already been in place. (and thus missed)

I am only writing such a long analysis as I respect you and your trading and know you trade for real. I have also consumed two bottles of Thatchers Vintage Fine Somserset Cider for lunch. (Alc Vol = 7.4%)

 

[wasp]

No probs Trendie, but you'll have to give me a while as I'm just having a skip delivered

 

[wasp]

Okay.....

First up;

I don't know, nor do I attempt to know where price will be in ten minutes or ten hours.
I don't care for time. I could be in for three minutes or 3 days.
When I trade yens, I am aware there could be between 1 and 5 possible intra-day swings.

What I am watching for and what I will explain on the chart better is thus...

The most important factors to me are;

Support and resistance
Trends

When one ends, another begins in theory... The problem I think the uninitiated to my charts would have is, like you say, until point (X, Y or Z), I can't draw a trendline. You are right. When the market crosses over my previous trendline, I am watching firstly for price to stay in profit from my entry. After that, I am looking for a higher low in an uptrend or higher low in a downtrend, only then I draw in my trendline from the high/low of that level.

Whilst I am awaiting for that to happen, I am trailing by my interpretation of relevant support and resistance. (wick highs and lows grouped or at previous levels). At all times I trail behind them as a safety net.

I noticed a few candle terms but I don't know them so can't answer about them, sorry. Never read a trading book and just go by what I see rather than by a books interpretation.

So I am looking to get in as early as possible based on the break of the previous trendline (confirmed by the break and HrL or LrH), trailing at all times and waiting for the opposite to happen, back and forth all week.



Chart analysis:

ok, wasp....

I want to illustrate why I cant understand your EURJPY post.

Your first sup/res line doesnt make sense until it hits point A on my representation of your chart. (since, unless you knew everything in advance (PLEASE lets not resurrect that nightmare ) the price, you couldnt draw that line until point A, when by then it had exhausted its potential upmove.

Entry A1 is a long from the previous trendline break. The exit at the top is from the S/R.

Point A is thus the HrL to confirm my trendline.

Point B is now my entry for the short after the crossover of the previous trendline.

Your second line angle doesn't make sense until the yellow box is drawn, so the angle was open to interpretation until then. by then, about 50% of the move had happened.

the third upline doesnt make sense until point B happens.

Both lines could not be drawn until the HrL or LrH but that is what trailing behind S/R is for and until then, I accept it may reverse on me.

I have added line S1. the line, from my perspective follows the logic of Sup/Res, in that it shows where price has shown support, ie, bounced up from.
At what point could you identify that the Sup-line would fail?

I draw support and resistance slightly different to most from experiences and don't carry them across the board like that. As for trailing and its likeliness of failure, I trail after a new candle prints and stick with statistics.

X3: for someone who believes the upmove is still valid could possibly misintrpret the pin-bar. followed by an inside bar as possible BUY conditions.
At what point is the Sup violated and a downmove the valid view?

Labels, names, mean nothing to me......

Also, X2 could possibly be seen as a test of Sup-becomes-Res, but your third line shows it breaking above it. My line L2 would fail. ( anticipating a bounce off Res, which was once S1)

I have also drawn X1, where Sup is to be found. and line L1 as possible anticipated bounce. My interpretation would have failed, ie, S2 did not hold true.

Support and resistance is a means to trail for me and the trendline made through HrL's etc are the deciding factor and thus I wouldn't have taken the short.

I hope you dont mind me writing such a detailed reason why I dont understand Sup/Res, even though I go through phases of clarity with it, but I still rely on probabilities using indicators, since I believe your lines cannot have been drawn until a large percentage iof the move has already been in place. (and thus missed)

Not a problem but I doubt I have made much sense as its something that I have ingrained into my mind but its a lot harder to explain, any more queries, ask away! I'm sure there is! The charts a mess now!

I am only writing such a long analysis as I respect you and your trading and know you trade for real. I have also consumed two bottles of Thatchers Vintage Fine Somserset Cider for lunch. (Alc Vol = 7.4%)

Don't drink and trade Trendie! Especially not Cider! In fact, just don't drink Cider full stop!!! :cheesy: Bombay martini's all the way!

Good trading

Wasp

 

[wasp]

LrH confirming trendline and stops in place.

Friday night... Far more exciting things than chart watching... Can't disappoint the ladies of Brighton! Martini's and fun to be had........ :clap:

Good weekend all

 

[trendie]

thanks for your fulsome reply, wasp. I thought you were in NZ?!

its ok for me to drink, as I had shut-down trading at lumch, since there were two news events, which incidently, seem not to have made much of an impact.

Your HrL and HrH etc, seem to be purer than my OB/OS, but conceptually the same, perhaps. I just cant yet make that step to remove them from my charts.

as long as it works for you, keep doing it.
that would extend to the ladies of Brighton, no doubt.

have a good weekend, as much as you remember of it, after those martinis.

 

[trendie]

No probs Trendie, but you'll have to give me a while as I'm just having a skip delivered

thats a lot of empties you're anticipating.
watch your liver.

 

[wasp]

thanks for your fulsome reply, wasp. I thought you were in NZ?!

its ok for me to drink, as I had shut-down trading at lumch, since there were two news events, which incidently, seem not to have made much of an impact.

Your HrL and HrH etc, seem to be purer than my OB/OS, but conceptually the same, perhaps. I just cant yet make that step to remove them from my charts.

as long as it works for you, keep doing it.
that would extend to the ladies of Brighton, no doubt.

have a good weekend, as much as you remember of it, after those martinis.

Hi Trendie,

I love NZ but, I love the UK more! NZ is cool to visit and I will be back there again soon but just as a holiday in the future.

Ahh, the martini's don't get me as much as the scotch used to so remember the night before much easier these days. Not sure if that's a good thing as I become more used to it or the memories sharper, either way, I digress...........

Its the old price vs indicator dilemma ay. Not sure why price can't give you the same faith and probabilities but if it ain't broke, don't try and fix it Trendie, you're paying the mortgage through trading so how you get there is not important for you.

Incidentally, the HMA's weren't far off the same action! I'll stick with price though these days......

WASP

 

[hornblower]

nice run up today on the gbp/yen and the usd/euro

ps I am unable to post during the day ,as my cmc program
has problems when I run t2w , because I am running aol

 

[smbtnt]

Cable coiling - wedge formation begging to defy gravity. Interesting times.

 

[2be]

Cable coiling - wedge formation begging to defy gravity. Interesting times.

On the 1hr the down momentum has slowed and as long as the suppotrt at 9650 holds, which we might see retracement, once this 9650 support is broken, there shall be a nice breakout do the downside probably lasting several days with the potential target in the 9400 region, or even slightly below it. There is still a highier timeframe direction which makes me to choose shors on retracements, atm, which also stands in agreement with time cycles analysis I use on a highier time frames. Overall my long term bias is long, and shall be so until there is the change of direction on a daily timeframe, yesterdays High I am tempted to count as a fulfilment of EW pattern, though it came a bit early for my liking.:cheesy:
Happy trading to all,
2be

 

[clockwork71]

1.94 is in our near future.

Once 1.9650 is cleanly broken.

 

[hornblower]

trading price just price
gbp/yen
poor day today, made a few points

price action was not right
we had a big move yesterday , and you don`t get 2 big move days in a row
but there is always tomorrow
regards
hornblower

 

[trendie]

spikes again, dammit!

nice upmove on the EURJPY starting around 9-am, which I missed because it seemed to be going sideways, and previous Low was there. But there was a pullback at 10-am.
But then, WHAM! the gain reversed itself in 2 5-min bars. Nothing to show, except a small loss.
However, GBPUSD showed a good upmove, with a pullback at 9:20am.
Still in play.

I hate the spikey stuff. It always seems to go against me.

Anyways, US news:
1:30pm: Core CPI m/m (RED event)
1:30pm: Housing starts (RED event) Is this a new event? Hadn't noticed this one before.

 

[roussell]

I'm thinking short cable tomorrow, gains today have hit previous support and i can see that now providing some resistance. anyone agree?

 

[hornblower]

I had a mini power cut yesterday
so I had problems this morning trying to log on
I did not get it sorted out untill lunch time
so no trades today
may try for a few point tonight

 

[hornblower]

what a day today on gbp /yen
made up for yesterday

 

[trendie]

yikes, more spikes.

I missed a decent upmove on the GBPUSD this morning. a move which is now going sideways.

Then, I caught the pullback on the EURJPY upmove, even though it was a bit messy.

But then it spiked down, took me out, and then rocketed up again.
A second time this week EURJPY stopped me out with a loss, when I had the correct direction.
Difference is I didnt have a good GBPUSD to cancel out the loss this time.

Ho-hum, such is trading.

 

[rags2riches]

what is going on with eur/usd?

what is going on with eur/usd?

Sharp drop over 100 points scratched my morning long. Is this an intervention?

Can they really stop price going to 1.6 in the longer term? Looks like it is finding support now but 4 hourly looks like it wants to go down some more....

 

[hornblower]

what a day !
gbp/yen 450 pts range
just up and up all day