wasp
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After my reputation proceeded me as the dogs bollox in FX (apart from that GJ bloke) people just couldn't stop appreciating and repping my posts!
rags2riches
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anyone short the 4hr double top on usd/jpy? I got in a bit late. I wonder how low it can go?
Gumping
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I'm beginning to watch this one now, but not being around today I missed alot of the action. I do note that on the hourly, a candle with a long tail formed with the tail pointing into the 50% fib of the most recent upmove from 106.50's up to 108.00's.
Gumping
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rags2riches
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Whacking great $ move like that and I still only manage to net 20 pips due to my incompetence at following simple rules!!
It is NOT OK to follow gut instinct and short cable before the news announcement.
Repeat:
It is NOT OK to follow gut instinct and short cable before the news announcement.
See if my free usd/jpy short can net me some more pips...
It is NOT OK to follow gut instinct and short cable before the news announcement.
Repeat:
It is NOT OK to follow gut instinct and short cable before the news announcement.
See if my free usd/jpy short can net me some more pips...
Crap Buddist
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GBPJPY Sneaky whatsits, i'm sure these banks are in cahoots, waiting to take advantage while people sleep ? See how thats slid down all night til now ? it tells me this is a 24 hour market ?
interesting before the payrolls too... filthy though really .just filthy....... It's like well a raid at 3 Am or something, when people at weakest ?
interesting before the payrolls too... filthy though really .just filthy....... It's like well a raid at 3 Am or something, when people at weakest ?
wasp
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Don't sleep is the answer CB! Money never sleeps! It was a good run down after this tight week, much needed!
Crap Buddist
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BUT its still sneaky . I've just let go of my short and it was literally a DAY trade to the minute....... See what happens NFP usually this grinds about like its having its arms pulled out of its sockets.
wasp
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Ahhh but GJ is not a great mover on NFP though. Being a Yen pair you have to be wary of those Jap traders working through our night! I find it better overnight than the US session most of the time.
Still sneaky though, just be sneakier!
wasp
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Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The yen rose to a two-week high against the euro as faltering global growth and falling stocks prompted traders to pare holdings of higher-yielding assets funded in the Japanese currency.
The currency advanced the most versus the Australian and New Zealand dollars, favorites of so-called carry trades, on speculation the nations' central banks will cut interest rates. The dollar rose against the euro after a report showed German retail sales slumped, undermining the case for the European Central Bank to raise borrowing costs.
``The yen might be benefiting as Japanese investors unwind long Aussie and Kiwi positions,'' said Paul Robson, a London-based currency strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. ``Because the Australian economy has turned on a dime, monetary policy will as well. Japanese investors are repatriating those funds, giving the yen a bit of a boost against the euro and dollar.''
The yen rose a fifth day against the euro to 167.35 at 9:10 a.m. in London from 168.39 yesterday in New York. It earlier traded at 167.27, the highest since July 17. The dollar weakened to 107.54 yen from 107.91. The euro slid to $1.5564 from $1.5603.
The MCSI World Index of stocks dropped 0.6 percent as former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said U.S. home prices are ``nowhere near the bottom.'' A Labor Department report today may show companies cut employees for a seventh month in July.
Carry Trades Reduced
Japan's currency rose to a one-month high of 100.42 per Australian dollar, from 101.69 yesterday in New York. It climbed to a four-month high of 77.90 per New Zealand dollar from 79.25.
Daiwa Asset Management Co., which holds 4 percent of the government's bonds, said in an interview last week the rally in the Australian dollar is coming to an end. Mizuho Asset Management Co., State Street Global Advisors and Putnam Investments also turned bearish as the U.S. economic slowdown spread, causing commodity prices to decline.
In carry trades, investors get funds in a country with low borrowing costs and buy assets where returns are higher. The Bank of Japan's target lending rate is 0.5 percent compared with 4.25 percent in Europe, 7.25 percent in Australia and 8 percent in New Zealand.
Traders speculated the Reserve Bank of Australia will lower its benchmark rate by 68 basis points, or 0.68 percentage point, over the next 12 months, according to a Credit Suisse Group index based on interest-rate swaps. That's up from 32 basis points at the end of last week.
The Australian dollar may extend losses to 100.25 yen today, based on charts used to predict price movements, said Pak Lai Ng, a technical analyst at Forecast Pte Ltd. in Singapore.
U.S. Slump
U.S. non-farm payrolls dropped by 75,000 last month, following a decline of 62,000 in June, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists. The Labor Department's report is scheduled to be released at 8:30 a.m. in Washington.
``There emerges concern the U.S. slowdown will cause a global recession,'' said Toru Umemoto, chief currency strategist in Tokyo at Barclays Capital Inc., a unit of Britain's third- biggest bank. ``With commodity prices falling, currencies such as the Australian dollar are vulnerable. The yen is being buoyed by risk reduction.''
Gross domestic product in the U.S. increased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent in the second quarter, the Commerce Department announced yesterday. Economists predicted 2.3 percent growth, a Bloomberg survey showed. The report also showed that a recession may have begun in the final three months of 2007, as GDP was revised to indicate a contraction in that period.
Futures Bets
Futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade showed a 32 percent chance the Fed will raise its 2 percent target rate for overnight loans between banks by at least a quarter-percentage point by Sept. 16, down from 38 percent odds on July 30.
``The U.S. labor markets will no doubt remain weak,'' said Masaki Fukui, a senior economist and currency analyst in Tokyo at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd., a unit of Japan's second-largest publicly traded lender by assets. ``This will weigh on the dollar,'' which may fall to 105 yen by Sept. 30, he said.
The U.S. currency gained against the euro after crude oil yesterday fell more than $2 a barrel. The euro-dollar exchange rate and oil have had a correlation of 0.9 in the past year, according to Bloomberg calculations based on their value changes. A reading of 1 would mean they moved in lockstep.
``Oil looks quite heavy, and commodities seem to be in a longer-term downward trend,'' said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at TD Securities Inc. in Toronto. ``It lent some support to the dollar.''
Euro Versus Yen
The euro weakened for a fifth day against the yen as consumer demand slowed in Germany, Europe's largest economy.
Retail sales fell 1.4 percent from May, when they rose 0.5 percent, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said. Economists forecast a drop of 0.5 percent, the median of 29 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey shows.
``With expectations of a rate hike by the ECB dwindling, the euro is falling,'' said Koji Fukaya, senior currency strategist at the Tokyo unit of Deutsche Bank AG, the world's largest currency trader. ``There have even emerged expectations of an ECB rate cut.''
Europe's single currency may fall to $1.45 against the dollar by year-end, Fukaya said.
The currency advanced the most versus the Australian and New Zealand dollars, favorites of so-called carry trades, on speculation the nations' central banks will cut interest rates. The dollar rose against the euro after a report showed German retail sales slumped, undermining the case for the European Central Bank to raise borrowing costs.
``The yen might be benefiting as Japanese investors unwind long Aussie and Kiwi positions,'' said Paul Robson, a London-based currency strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. ``Because the Australian economy has turned on a dime, monetary policy will as well. Japanese investors are repatriating those funds, giving the yen a bit of a boost against the euro and dollar.''
The yen rose a fifth day against the euro to 167.35 at 9:10 a.m. in London from 168.39 yesterday in New York. It earlier traded at 167.27, the highest since July 17. The dollar weakened to 107.54 yen from 107.91. The euro slid to $1.5564 from $1.5603.
The MCSI World Index of stocks dropped 0.6 percent as former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said U.S. home prices are ``nowhere near the bottom.'' A Labor Department report today may show companies cut employees for a seventh month in July.
Carry Trades Reduced
Japan's currency rose to a one-month high of 100.42 per Australian dollar, from 101.69 yesterday in New York. It climbed to a four-month high of 77.90 per New Zealand dollar from 79.25.
Daiwa Asset Management Co., which holds 4 percent of the government's bonds, said in an interview last week the rally in the Australian dollar is coming to an end. Mizuho Asset Management Co., State Street Global Advisors and Putnam Investments also turned bearish as the U.S. economic slowdown spread, causing commodity prices to decline.
In carry trades, investors get funds in a country with low borrowing costs and buy assets where returns are higher. The Bank of Japan's target lending rate is 0.5 percent compared with 4.25 percent in Europe, 7.25 percent in Australia and 8 percent in New Zealand.
Traders speculated the Reserve Bank of Australia will lower its benchmark rate by 68 basis points, or 0.68 percentage point, over the next 12 months, according to a Credit Suisse Group index based on interest-rate swaps. That's up from 32 basis points at the end of last week.
The Australian dollar may extend losses to 100.25 yen today, based on charts used to predict price movements, said Pak Lai Ng, a technical analyst at Forecast Pte Ltd. in Singapore.
U.S. Slump
U.S. non-farm payrolls dropped by 75,000 last month, following a decline of 62,000 in June, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists. The Labor Department's report is scheduled to be released at 8:30 a.m. in Washington.
``There emerges concern the U.S. slowdown will cause a global recession,'' said Toru Umemoto, chief currency strategist in Tokyo at Barclays Capital Inc., a unit of Britain's third- biggest bank. ``With commodity prices falling, currencies such as the Australian dollar are vulnerable. The yen is being buoyed by risk reduction.''
Gross domestic product in the U.S. increased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent in the second quarter, the Commerce Department announced yesterday. Economists predicted 2.3 percent growth, a Bloomberg survey showed. The report also showed that a recession may have begun in the final three months of 2007, as GDP was revised to indicate a contraction in that period.
Futures Bets
Futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade showed a 32 percent chance the Fed will raise its 2 percent target rate for overnight loans between banks by at least a quarter-percentage point by Sept. 16, down from 38 percent odds on July 30.
``The U.S. labor markets will no doubt remain weak,'' said Masaki Fukui, a senior economist and currency analyst in Tokyo at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd., a unit of Japan's second-largest publicly traded lender by assets. ``This will weigh on the dollar,'' which may fall to 105 yen by Sept. 30, he said.
The U.S. currency gained against the euro after crude oil yesterday fell more than $2 a barrel. The euro-dollar exchange rate and oil have had a correlation of 0.9 in the past year, according to Bloomberg calculations based on their value changes. A reading of 1 would mean they moved in lockstep.
``Oil looks quite heavy, and commodities seem to be in a longer-term downward trend,'' said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at TD Securities Inc. in Toronto. ``It lent some support to the dollar.''
Euro Versus Yen
The euro weakened for a fifth day against the yen as consumer demand slowed in Germany, Europe's largest economy.
Retail sales fell 1.4 percent from May, when they rose 0.5 percent, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said. Economists forecast a drop of 0.5 percent, the median of 29 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey shows.
``With expectations of a rate hike by the ECB dwindling, the euro is falling,'' said Koji Fukaya, senior currency strategist at the Tokyo unit of Deutsche Bank AG, the world's largest currency trader. ``There have even emerged expectations of an ECB rate cut.''
Europe's single currency may fall to $1.45 against the dollar by year-end, Fukaya said.
Crap Buddist
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Aussie Power- G'day ,we shafted all your stops while you slept! Ya big galar!
Same to you 2!
Hmm blame the Aussies then ! Well, thoerising why and how ,is perhaps best left for pubs and Sunday lunch times.
Same to you 2!
Hmm blame the Aussies then ! Well, thoerising why and how ,is perhaps best left for pubs and Sunday lunch times.
Crap Buddist
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Yeah NFP can mess with your head! I don't like it much, seismic needles going off all over the charts! Good for shorter term traders piling in.
Does anyone open a trade in the opposite direction to hold your position, with the intent of dropping a leg post release on volatility?
I could see that as a way to deal with the madness ,yet hold your position ... and even profit from it. Other than that best to cut out and either short term it if anything looks worth taking a punt,or have an early bath til next week.
Does anyone open a trade in the opposite direction to hold your position, with the intent of dropping a leg post release on volatility?
I could see that as a way to deal with the madness ,yet hold your position ... and even profit from it. Other than that best to cut out and either short term it if anything looks worth taking a punt,or have an early bath til next week.
Yes.. in the past I have opened positions in the opposite direction just to get through the madness... it does calm the nerves a bit...
as long as your stops a far enough away :-0
Crap Buddist
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Cheers Norm. When you look at it , NFP is a right old carry on intra day, but in the scheme of things , its a blip. Thats why I think it better if it wasn't there, or just pancaked into a smooth price continuation.
See what happens Yen strength over dollar ??
Good luck all.
See what happens Yen strength over dollar ??
Good luck all.
Newtron Bomb
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One thing you might want to consider for your trading day is teh profit potential for a move...
Basically an average days move.. if its already been done then there is no trading potential
For example I look for new highs or lows for teh day post major news announcements with profit potential.
GBPUSD has done about 65/70% of an average days move already today so a post news move on this pair will most likely be short lived and my potential is dramically reduced.
Compare this to euro or chf where there is still 70% of an average days move yet to be done makes those two pairs more attractive the trying to scrape what could well be just a small movement on GBP.
Also keep in mind this this assessment doenst mean it cant or wont move, it just means that on average its already done most of what I would expect for the day on gbp.
Happy hunting
Basically an average days move.. if its already been done then there is no trading potential
For example I look for new highs or lows for teh day post major news announcements with profit potential.
GBPUSD has done about 65/70% of an average days move already today so a post news move on this pair will most likely be short lived and my potential is dramically reduced.
Compare this to euro or chf where there is still 70% of an average days move yet to be done makes those two pairs more attractive the trying to scrape what could well be just a small movement on GBP.
Also keep in mind this this assessment doenst mean it cant or wont move, it just means that on average its already done most of what I would expect for the day on gbp.
Happy hunting
Crap Buddist
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hmmm nothin kicking off too mental
hmmm nothin kicking off too mental
Well I stayed in ... i trade longer term (days / weeks / Months) really... but cant help checking down on the intra charts as they as so exciting...
I am still short EUR & GBP / dollar ... good job I stayed in (so far) lol lol :whistling
Newtron Bomb
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complete lack of movement folks, euro only one firing off a trade for me so far post news.. cadchf attempting a sloppy move
all eyes to ISM at 3pm now
all eyes to ISM at 3pm now
