Fx 2008

[Crap Buddist]

Well, we had a little lift,text book pinhead off of 209.30 zone (chart to follow) now got another short flagged. Short 209.80. this one should last a bit longer ! few hours to play out. But hope they dont push it through 210.00 showing as a false break if it comes.. hopefully down south from here.

see what happens.

 

[MrGecko]

I am still long; moved my stop to a gnats c0ck below 208; looking for a break north here.

Stopped out EURJPY @ 166.16 ish, looking at re-entry off 166 (ish) support.

 

[Crap Buddist]

Chart. Holding that short punt, was a good trade although I was snarling at it grinding up and down up and down... always was a counter punter and it did have to fight its way down. I could sense a pinhead forming and this pair was gagging to pop higher again, especially relative to USD/JPY. that pair was sub 106 and this beast relative had packed on 20/25 points when USDJPY was treading water... gagging for its leg up.

See what happens from here. with the short. just seen it prod 210.00 would of been a better price than 980 but, happy for a punt there. looks like it may winkle out some stops, hopefully be contained. !!

 

[Crap Buddist]

Good luck Mr Gecko, hope they keep it sub 210.50 or so , till morning

 

[MrGecko]

CB;

I am long on an 8Hr timeframe; it may well retrace down to 208.50 ish, but I am playing the Ascending wedge.

 

[Crap Buddist]

Well on the back foot with that one accepted the loss of 55 points @ 210.35 hmmm note old bernake was talking his long dollar position up !!! see how far up from long 35 it gets....

 

[Crap Buddist]

Also News mentioned Paulson didnt rule out intervention with Dollar, I assume he means supporting it driving it stronger ? lol I think those fed guys are talking their own side up..... seems like a scandal..funny how we get a series of dollar boosting news come out, seems a bit too cosey to me A bit like when the oil bods announce refining problems and up pops oil.....

 

[Crap Buddist]

I'll just say this. I'm having Rum in my breakfast tea this morning .....

 

[Crap Buddist]

might be some pinhead action flopping in around 209.20 zone, not quite a long confirmed yet all depends if it holds here, gbp taken a battering this am , maybe just positioning?

 

[trendie]

is EURUSD about to break out, possibly to downside?
(small range breakout last week to the upside, and yesterday fell back, and is in same small range.)
potential point of change of sentiment?
(ad-hoc attempt to read market rather than indicators)

 

[Gumping]

is EURUSD about to break out, possibly to downside?
(small range breakout last week to the upside, and yesterday fell back, and is in same small range.)
potential point of change of sentiment?
(ad-hoc attempt to read market rather than indicators)

Well it's certainly finding support at current levels - still looks heavy though - No trade.

 

[Gumping]

Well it's certainly finding support at current levels - still looks heavy though - No trade.

Ooooooh - and just as I write, it starts to tip it's hand - and down it is.

 

[trendie]

took a short at 1.5560; botched it, as I was so worried about getting left behind.
my indicators would have got me in at 1.5575, so I cost myself 15 pips; expensive short.

got out at 1.5506, for +54 pips. on EURUSD.
(got out cos its approaching round number and thought there might be some reaction)

think it might drop to 1.5470/80, as per earlier screen-shot.
dont usually trade patterns or S/R, but anyway....

not bad for just the morning. (made up for yesterdays poxy +3 pips.)

 

[Crap Buddist]

nice one trendie.. its got a good story with it too with the fed saying we are long dollars and we aint gonna lose.... I dunno.... sounds like a theory to me.

 

[Crap Buddist]

Bloomberg telly saying Paulson will be on the show 9.30 am new york time today. Maybe he's gonna ramp the dollar up ?.... worth a watch....if only to insult him ....

edit.. theres a surprise... they'll be pumping dollar positive news again i bet.... this games rigged.

 

[trendie]

When does a Trendline fail? How much leeway do you give it?

todays EURJPY chart on the 1-mins.

The down Trendline(D-TL) as starting point.
The Sup becoming Res was quite clear today, with clear congestion, and break to the downside.

However, how much do you allow the TL to be breached before declaring it void?
sometimes TLs will breach, congest, and fail, which I can see.
But in todays example, the first breach (first aqua circle) could have tumbled back, but didnt.
Although the Sup-to-Res held, it didnt fall far enough back. (second aqua circle).

in my mind, the D-TL is under threat, and a possible Up TL may become valid.
In reality, a third bounce off Res has taken it down.

But, how much leeway do you give to a TL to return to its main direction?
(I understand its down to levels of sensitivity, much like what your indicator settings are, but we have all experienced TLs being breached/spiked, only to return, and we dont think the TL is under threat)

Discuss.

 

[rols]

When does a Trendline fail? How much leeway do you give it?

todays EURJPY chart on the 1-mins.

The down Trendline(D-TL) as starting point.
The Sup becoming Res was quite clear today, with clear congestion, and break to the downside.

However, how much do you allow the TL to be breached before declaring it void?
sometimes TLs will breach, congest, and fail, which I can see.
But in todays example, the first breach (first aqua circle) could have tumbled back, but didnt.
Although the Sup-to-Res held, it didnt fall far enough back. (second aqua circle).

in my mind, the D-TL is under threat, and a possible Up TL may become valid.
In reality, a third bounce off Res has taken it down.

But, how much leeway do you give to a TL to return to its main direction?
(I understand its down to levels of sensitivity, much like what your indicator settings are, but we have all experienced TLs being breached/spiked, only to return, and we dont think the TL is under threat)

Discuss.

Hi Trendie

I see a strong weekly support at 165.75 and a fib 61.8% on the H4.

If this is confirmed....

I would take a long at 165.75 stop 165.55ish

First target 166.05 then 166.30

Whaddya think?

 

[trendie]

Hi Trendie

I see a strong weekly support at 165.75 and a fib 61.8% on the H4.

If this is confirmed....

I would take a long at 165.75 stop 165.55ish

First target 166.05 then 166.30

Whaddya think?

I think you have been out in the sun too long. :cheesy:

The US session yesterday reversed the euro-sessions upmove. this mornings euro session broke the US session lows, and retested them.
we are in the zone of Fridays US session activity.
if I was trading market behaviour, since I cant see any specific pattern, I would revert to indicators, and play the numbers game, and am looking for OB conditions, since its generally down at the moment.
the US may change all that, so wait for them come on-line.

 

[trendie]

update on EURJPY. the TLs have, I think, given way to a ranging action.
no obvious HrH/HrL or vice-versa.
range condition.
the Sup/Res zones need to be breached and tested for trend condition to get activated.

Whaddya think?

 

[rols]

I think you have been out in the sun too long. :cheesy:

The US session yesterday reversed the euro-sessions upmove. this mornings euro session broke the US session lows, and retested them.
we are in the zone of Fridays US session activity.
if I was trading market behaviour, since I cant see any specific pattern, I would revert to indicators, and play the numbers game, and am looking for OB conditions, since its generally down at the moment.
the US may change all that, so wait for them come on-line.

I suggest Trendie looks at the trend

First target taken +27, stop moved to B/E next target 166.30

As for me being in the sun too long there's a pressie for you attached