ftse (and other) 20ema crossover and test

[StephenMcCreedy]

nice couple on eur/usd this morning. i got the short one but didn't hang on as long as i could have done.

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

this week i've been trying out the 1 min chart. due to my personality and the fact i want to get done by 9-10am each day i wondered if this would reveal more trades for me.

the problem has been so far that the ranges have been tight this week even with a 1 point spread it's been hard to make money and the rrr hasn't always been good.

i think i will probably go back to liffe where being able to deal inside of the spread makes life easier on these sorts of trades.

anyhow, for anyone who is interested here is today's 1min ftse with 10 and 20 ema over the top.

what i am looking for is a 'change and test'. this is when the gap made between the averages goes green from red (10 crosses over 20) and then comes back to test the emas.

a picture speaks 1000 words so here is that chart.

as always my aim is 10 points per day. my stop is 6 points per trade. my max number of trades is 5 each day.

stephen

 

[pboyles]

this week i've been trying out the 1 min chart. due to my personality and the fact i want to get done by 9-10am each day i wondered if this would reveal more trades for me.

the problem has been so far that the ranges have been tight this week even with a 1 point spread it's been hard to make money and the rrr hasn't always been good.

i think i will probably go back to liffe where being able to deal inside of the spread makes life easier on these sorts of trades.

anyhow, for anyone who is interested here is today's 1min ftse with 10 and 20 ema over the top.

what i am looking for is a 'change and test'. this is when the gap made between the averages goes green from red (10 crosses over 20) and then comes back to test the emas.

a picture speaks 1000 words so here is that chart.

as always my aim is 10 points per day. my stop is 6 points per trade. my max number of trades is 5 each day.

stephen

Stephen,

I was wondering if you'd looked at a 37 and 50 EMA setup. There was a thread here a while back called Urban Towers where they guy did something similar to what you are doing. He actually used several other EMAs but they were all between 37 and 50 so just those two plotted as per your most recent chart would do the same job.

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

thanks for that.

i guess the point of emas is that any pair or even one can work. they are there to make sure of a few things.

i am trading in the direction of the 'trend' as defined by the averages i'm using.

by waiting for the 'test' i am trying to skew the rrr slightly nearer my favour by waiting for a better fill.

i have a structure that keeps me out of trouble.

i reckon almost any averages can be used well if they give you the structure and discipline to trade more systematically.

i find these averages work for me as i'm looking for quicker trades.

i used to trade with no averages or indicators at all and what i found is though it was iiberating and good fun it also meant when i was having a crisis of confidence i had nothing to be certain of. using the averages i find i fight the market less and that is a good thing for me.

what markets and timescales do you trade?

 

[pboyles]

thanks for that.

i guess the point of emas is that any pair or even one can work. they are there to make sure of a few things.

i am trading in the direction of the 'trend' as defined by the averages i'm using.

by waiting for the 'test' i am trying to skew the rrr slightly nearer my favour by waiting for a better fill.

i have a structure that keeps me out of trouble.

i reckon almost any averages can be used well if they give you the structure and discipline to trade more systematically.

i find these averages work for me as i'm looking for quicker trades.

i used to trade with no averages or indicators at all and what i found is though it was iiberating and good fun it also meant when i was having a crisis of confidence i had nothing to be certain of. using the averages i find i fight the market less and that is a good thing for me.

what markets and timescales do you trade?

I trade the ES, Eurostoxx and Bund futures (no spreadbetting or FX). I trade off 5 and 15 minute charts, primarily off S&R but also occasionally take some trades similar to yours.

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

through ib? i used to trade the ES direct access and did ok. never used the eurostoxx or bund although i know that's where the size is.

i blew up my account last july and working back to a size to make direct access worth while again.

when i'm having a low confidence day the £10 per point opening on liffe (ftse fut is my bread and butter) seems daunting so i'm using spreadbet to nail down my discipline before i move back.

 

[pboyles]

through ib? i used to trade the ES direct access and did ok. never used the eurostoxx or bund although i know that's where the size is.

i blew up my account last july and working back to a size to make direct access worth while again.

when i'm having a low confidence day the £10 per point opening on liffe (ftse fut is my bread and butter) seems daunting so i'm using spreadbet to nail down my discipline before i move back.

Stephen,

I'd recommend you look at the bund and eurostoxx for the morning session. Minimum price movement is 10 euros but stops can be kept very tight, between 3 and 5 points in the example attached. Commission is just under 2 euros per round trip on these Eurex contracts so hopefully you can see the advantages.

I currently use Global Futures but others such as Velocity and Lightspeed are also suitable. I think IB commissions are higher.

I'm also only taking the ones where there is a PIN bar so slightly different from your method.

 

[pboyles]

I'd also add that these kick off at 7am UK time so you have an extra hour before your 9 or 10 deadline.

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

thanks for all of that, really. it's invaluable. 7am would suit me. i don't have another job but i seem to get worse as the day progresses. first thing i'm calm and disciplined. funnily enough making myself quite at a set time is the hardest part. what sort of targets do you aim for on the bund, i see you're risking 4,5,6 sort of points, what sort of reward are you looking for? you've got me fired up to move back to direct access. i remember when i went to an arcade in london one of the better traders said he always lost money spreabetting and made money direct. and he was a good trader. it shows the skew and spread you're working against if you are trading short term.

like i said i felt i owned the z on liffe for a long time till i got it in to my head the world was doomed and shorted the july 09 rally right to the top. there is a lot to be said for not keeping all your ammo easy to get your hands on. 30 day notice account for my savings now!

calling it a day for today. i only allow myself 5 'bullets' a day for my risk management and i've used all 5. will take a look at global futs.

do they offer their own trading and do you just prefer ninja?

 

[pboyles]

thanks for all of that, really. it's invaluable. 7am would suit me. i don't have another job but i seem to get worse as the day progresses. first thing i'm calm and disciplined. funnily enough making myself quite at a set time is the hardest part. what sort of targets do you aim for on the bund, i see you're risking 4,5,6 sort of points, what sort of reward are you looking for? you've got me fired up to move back to direct access. i remember when i went to an arcade in london one of the better traders said he always lost money spreabetting and made money direct. and he was a good trader. it shows the skew and spread you're working against if you are trading short term.

like i said i felt i owned the z on liffe for a long time till i got it in to my head the world was doomed and shorted the july 09 rally right to the top. there is a lot to be said for not keeping all your ammo easy to get your hands on. 30 day notice account for my savings now!

calling it a day for today. i only allow myself 5 'bullets' a day for my risk management and i've used all 5. will take a look at global futs.

do they offer their own trading and do you just prefer ninja?

Stephen,

I aim for 5 to 10 points on the bund or eurostoxx but I have to be honest and say I normally get out with about 5, that's a weakness on my part not being able to hold trades. If I get 10 points I finish for the day, have had too much heartache in the past running those 10 points back to zero or worse!

Global do offer Ninja for about $50 a month, I currently use Global's GS Trader and have Ninja on SIM to evaluate Ninja Script. I used Ninja for the chart as GS Trader doesnt allow me to put arrows on the screenshot.

Global and the other brokers all offer a variety of platforms but I'm graduating towards Ninja due to the low cost and the fact I want to get back into programming a few simple indicators.

You should also chat with Velocity via their website. I recently discovered that Velocity's version of Ninja is available at weekends for programming etc whereas Globals is not.

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

thanks, sounds very similar set up to me on the ftse. i aim to risk 6 to make 12 and my target is 10 for the day. i will take a look in to those things tomorrow. i've put the 37 and 50 on a 5 min ftse and visually it shows up some nice trades with clarity in fact we could be on to short now.

it's hard to walk away 10 points up but i know if i always had done i'd be a lot lot better off!

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

maybe a valid signal here

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

good enough for 10 points or so even with not great entry and exit, seeing that double line filled with red above you gives you the confidence to pull the trigger on the shorts even as they get above it for a time. not a lot of pain against you on this one.

 

[pboyles]

good enough for 10 points or so even with not great entry and exit, seeing that double line filled with red above you gives you the confidence to pull the trigger on the shorts even as they get above it for a time. not a lot of pain against you on this one.

Only thing was you would have been holding that into the 1.30 news, could have gone either way unless you were out before that.

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

yes i'd want to be out for that. that is the nice thing about being done early in the day, dodging the data.

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

taken from the 15m dec bund at ig. nice double pin and drop from the 'red zone'. i can see why you use the 15min, maybe the market is behaving nicely for it today but all the pins in to the red zone have worked nicely and yesterday too.

planning a short day tomorrow but next week going to add the bund to my screen and just watch it for a week to get a feel for it. i guess it's easier to get size on with that if you are able.

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

dec bund from this morning using the 37/50 ema 'band'. didn't trade it but a text book set up for people looking for pin bars.

 

[pboyles]

Did you see the long on eurostoxx this morning? 5 minute PIN off the MA.

Also don't forget that the mini ES sometimes throws up trades in the morning as well. There's not much volume before 9am but any chances that do come along will require a very small stop.

 

[StephenMcCreedy]

hi, i haven't been looking at the eurostoxx. taken a couple of nice ones of the ftse.

i've set my screen with 4 charts, one in each corner going with 1m, 5m, 15m and 1hour with 37/50 emas on them.

aiming for ten points per day and taken three trades, for +2, +3 and +9.

if only i started to use some size!

out of interest what got you in to bund and eurostoxx, i don't know many self employed who trade those although i guess a lot of the bank traders do

 

[pboyles]

The bund and eurostoxx have the highest volume during the European session. A lot of professionals trade them, the commissions are also very low. A typical day sees over a million contracts traded on each of them therefore slippage is barely an issue at the size I trade. What volume do you see on the FTSE and roughly how much commission would a futures broker charge you?