FTSE 100 - Strategies or Plans?

Hi shortorlong,

Thanks for answering. I've tried to clarify my comments. I've made a lot of mistakes in the past, with regard to index trading and this latest exploit may result in disappointment, yet again, but the 2007 trophy may be within my grasp! I don't want to give the impression that what I say are the words of an expert and I, certainly, am not suggesting any "best way" of doing things. However, I would like to entreat everyone to "Keep the losses small!"

I use an arbitrary 5-6 points and close policy.

I think that I may have misled. I use an arbitrary stop loss policy of 5-6 points. I stick a 10 point stop loss on the trade in case I don't close out in time, manually. I don't close after a 5 point loss, I try to get as much as possible on a winning trade, otherwise I don't think my system would work.

I have come to a similar idea .. if I see a profit .. I take it .. of course this stops me from running my winners .. which is a problem. but I just don't think I can predict the direction of the next few pips .. many times I have tried to run a winner and ended up hitting my stop. The other thing I have considered is that the probability of hitting a stop that is far away must be much less than hitting a very small profit target. .

It's good that you commented on some of my of my quotes because I'd hate to be misunderstood. IMO, you have to run your winners. There are a lot of 20+ point trades out there that make the close stops worth while and, if you have had a couple of losers that day, you must have those winning streaks.

Stops are a necessary evil I realise but . twice this week I have watched a bad trade turn benign by not setting a stop and adding to my losing position when it is 30/40 points out .. now I know this can end in disaster .. and probably will .. but I am only trading £2 per point ..
I know I need to think about this .. and stop doing it! after all: I can't predict the next tick and yet I am effectively trying to predict a reversal.


A bad habit. Knock it off! If you had closed out at 10 points loss, instead of 40 points, you would have been able to open a trade lower down with, if you were correct in your assessment of the trend direction, a good chance of making a breakeven or better by the time the index had risen to where you thought it was a good buy in the first place.

Good trading

Split
 
Hi Jonny,

Probably, my entries have not been any better than anyone else's, but I have avoided reversing. If I thought the damned thing was going up I kept going in that direction. I never had to have more than 3 tries, I don't think, in any one morning. That could have been my good fortune for the month of June, though, and getting the trend direction right for that trade. As I mentioned, I've been through the euphoric stuff, before, and am no stranger to setbacks.

I've explained about my exit. If I feel that the trade is going wrong, I don't wait for the 10 point stop that I put on and I am not putting the stops where they "should" be, With my luck, if I have a stop below the previous bar, it will get taken out, so once it's losing 5+2 spread I try to get out beforehand. They are, often, too soon and I swear, but I seem to be clawing in the pluses by ones and twos on the poor days until I get a good day. If you have kept your losses low and shrugged your shoulders on the bad days, your good days will all the more profitable over the whole period.

I'm going to have a look at Friday's chart and see what you and I did. The car bomb news didn't get to me until after lunch.

Split
 
Hi Jonny,

On Friday I shorted at 0834 for 6581 and lost my nerve at 1015 at 6555. Actually, Barjon's post was in my mind on his "Swingin' the FTSE" thread and I was half expecting a swing low day and took profits of 26 points.

Re-entered short at about 1118, 6548.5, but lost 5 points on that trade. Decided to call it a day. When I took that 26 points I was over 200 points for the month. The second trade took me to 198, so there was, probably, a psychological thing that stopped me from wanting to lose any more money!

When did the bad news hit you? Maybe, you should concentrate on the chart with the news turned off?

Split
 
NO SUCCESS AFTER 2YRS 6MTHS !! God, what strategy are you using ?

NK
 
NO SUCCESS AFTER 2YRS 6MTHS !! God, what strategy are you using ?

NK

It happens, unfortunately. Its happened to me and it may happen again, although I'll try to avoid it. Older and wiser, maybe?

Split
 
It happens, unfortunately. Its happened to me and it may happen again, although I'll try to avoid it. Older and wiser, maybe?

Split

Reading jonny's thread, it occurs to me that he is trying to guess (gamble) where the market is going to go, rather than wait for signals and trade them. Unless he's really lucky he will keep on losing all his money gambling.......
 
Regarding Oscar the OMNI guy's System...

This seems to not be a system but better yet, a mentality or way to trade that beats the so called black box systems.

I have been following Oscar and the OMNI at http://Livewithoscar.com for several months.
Although I am quite new to trading, I have spoken to many seasoned veterans of trading from stocks to futures and find that the real pros are very impressed with the level of experience that this guy exudes.

There are a bunch of videos on http://youtube.com/futuresanalysts as well that show charts and explain the recommendations that Oscar is giving out on several markets,
( The S&P and NASDAQ mostly ).
It looks like a great place to learn trading mentality and learn to recognize indicators along with a ton of great suggestions like Placing your Stops first, (Which should be trading 101 in regards to Risk management. ) This is good stuff for any trader !!!
 
Those who have seen me around these boards will know that I went into my second attempt at trading the Footsie last summer. I started well and mixed with others in the chatroom. Round about October I decided, after a disastrous string of losees, to go back to my normal trading methods, swearing not to waste time on Footsie again.

The trouble with long term trading is that it leaves time for worlking out new methods on Footsie, a kind of dog chasing its own tail , so this thread triggered my curiosity about my failures.

June started me off on my third tour.

Short stops are the answer to my problems. I will not tolerate a loss of more than 10 points per trade. "Will not tolerate"? Because I try to get out with a loss of no more than 6-7 points, including the 2 point spread, ten points would be a real slip up.

How I enter and close trades is another subject but I have gained 198 points this month.

There were 53 trades (or 55, I lost one day's data). I think that I can, and should, do better but I am gratified to see such a consistant increase over a whole month. My record shows me 33 winning trades against 22 losers.

I'd like to help by saying that I do not discard opportunies to trade simply because the "logical" place to put a stop is too far away for the risk/reward aspect to make it attractive. I use an arbitrary 5-6 points and close policy. To hell with the text books---this month, at least!

I can only trade until 1330 UK time

Split

Hi Split

May I ask how this month is going for you so far?, is the strategy holding up and are you in profit, early days yet for the month I know with only one week gone but interested as I haven't been chart watching recently, so unaware of potential moves that could have been captured.
 
Hi Split

May I ask how this month is going for you so far?, is the strategy holding up and are you in profit, early days yet for the month I know with only one week gone but interested as I haven't been chart watching recently, so unaware of potential moves that could have been captured.

Hi Don,

I've got to go out so I'll get back later. In a nutshell, I'm fairly pleased. I started off badly and my first trade, on Thursday,saw me well over 40 points down on the month. After that I have been getting it back and ended Friday down -6 points. Details later.

Split
 
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Good week for me - start of something or fluke?

Hi all,
I've had a great week trading the FTSE. 17 trades, 13 winners, 4 trades closed for zero profit, no losing trades.:eek: In three trades I added to a losing position. Of those, two were closed in profit one was closed for zero. 54 points to me for the week.

All of my trades this week except one were shorts. My only long of the week occurred on Wednesday and was the first loser I added to, I then closed it for zero.

As for our topic "strategies and plans" I began the week thinking about the way the FTSE begins the day. Often, the third reversal after 8 is the trade to go for. (not extensively back tested as my minute chart only goes back two days), but I ended the week using the RSI indicator to tell me when to trade. It worked! I also watch the RSI indicator on the DOW and the DAX. I have not developed a strategy cast in stone, but for example I might short the FTSE when the RSI indicator indicates it is overbought and I might close my position when any of the indices looks over sold. The other important element in my trading style is that when I am in profit I say to myself "take it" but I hesitate, I may even walk away from the computer for a few minutes. Then when I come back maybe I have more profit maybe I have less. If I have less then I tend to close the trade if I have more profit I tend to wait until it moves against me and then take the profit.

You can see from my trades that I don't care in the profit is small as long as it is a profit. I can always get back in.

When I have made zero or a loss (not this week) I have missed my exit point.

Find pasted below my trades for the week.

good trading all!


02-Jul-07 08:05 FTSE Rolling Daily Sell 2 6587
02-Jul-07 09:54 FTSE Rolling Daily Buy 2 6573

02-Jul-07 15:03 FTSE Rolling Daily Sell 2 6601
02-Jul-07 15:58 FTSE Rolling Daily Buy 2 6600

02-Jul-07 16:12 FTSE Rolling Daily Sell 2 6611
02-Jul-07 16:15 FTSE Rolling Daily Buy 2 6609

03-Jul-07 08:41 FTSE Rolling Daily Sell 2 6633
03-Jul-07 10:09 FTSE Rolling Daily Buy 2 6633

03-Jul-07 15:01 FTSE Rolling Daily Sell 2 6641
03-Jul-07 15:07 FTSE Rolling Daily Buy 2 6635

04-Jul-07 08:25 FTSE Rolling Daily Sell 2 6653
04-Jul-07 08:55 FTSE Rolling Daily Buy 2 6653

04-Jul-07 09:41 FTSE Rolling Daily Sell 2 6655
04-Jul-07 09:53 FTSE Rolling Daily Buy 2 6653

04-Jul-07 14:42 FTSE Rolling Daily Sell 2 6669
04-Jul-07 14:52 FTSE Rolling Daily Buy 2 6667

04-Jul-07 15:30 FTSE Rolling Daily Sell 2 6678
04-Jul-07 16:07 FTSE Rolling Daily Buy 2 6674

05-Jul-07 08:05 FTSE Rolling Daily Buy 2 6674
05-Jul-07 09:02 FTSE Rolling Daily Buy 2 6658
05-Jul-07 11:20 FTSE Rolling Daily Sell 4 6666

05-Jul-07 13:33 FTSE Rolling Daily Sell 2 6687
05-Jul-07 13:51 FTSE Rolling Daily Buy 2 6682

06-Jul-07 08:06 FTSE Rolling Daily Sell 2 6652
06-Jul-07 08:23 FTSE Rolling Daily Buy 2 6644

06-Jul-07 09:07 FTSE Rolling Daily Sell 2 6666
06-Jul-07 09:22 FTSE Rolling Daily Buy 2 6666

06-Jul-07 10:10 FTSE Rolling Daily Sell 2 6666
06-Jul-07 10:49 FTSE Rolling Daily Sell 2 6674
06-Jul-07 11:31 FTSE Rolling Daily Buy 4 6669

06-Jul-07 15:30 FTSE Rolling Daily Buy 2 6669
06-Jul-07 15:30 FTSE Rolling Daily Sell 2 6672

06-Jul-07 15:35 FTSE Rolling Daily Sell 2 6673
06-Jul-07 15:36 FTSE Rolling Daily Buy 2 6670

06-Jul-07 16:22 FTSE Rolling Daily Sell 2 6681
06-Jul-07 16:32 FTSE Rolling Daily Sell 2 6693
06-Jul-07 16:49 FTSE Rolling Daily Buy 4 6686
 
Congratulations, You've had a very busy week and I'm pleased for you.

In my last post, I've corrected what I said, I meant that I was over 40 points down by Thursday. Down that much on my first trade, which is what I put, would have gone against my trading practice.

Here's my trading sheet

Monday. Short -7; Short-7; Short +8. Tuesday Short -8; Short 0; Wednesday Short -6; Short -7; Buy -7; Thursday Buy -11 (this got away from me); Buy +22; Friday Buy +6; Sell +11

That makes 8 losses for 53 points and 5 gains for 47.

Not star trading but I've got it under control.

Do you see that spike at 1330 that went to 6675? I had a stop there and Fins did not trigger it!

Who says that SB companies haven't got soft hearts? :)

Split
 
Hi shortorlong

Just looking at last weeks ftse, more often than not it would appear your observation of the third reversal coincides around the opening of the US markets, maybe a workable strat here is possible.....keep up the good work.

Hi Split

Lucky you weren't on IG, they popped above 6675 twice, @ 13:30:14 & 13:13:18 where Fins show a single touch on their tick charts of 6675.

Good trading for the coming week.
 

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Hi Don,

Forgot to say that I had my stop on market. Would that have something to do with it?
May be a good idea to use market stops.

Split
 
Hi Don,

Forgot to say that I had my stop on market. Would that have something to do with it?
May be a good idea to use market stops.

Split

Well perhaps not, Split the fact that you had a stop on market price probably saved the trade this time, I dont have ftse future prices, but can only conclude that fins prices were higher than market, consequently had the market price gone higher triggering the stop you would have lost more because you would have been filled at the fins quote, something like that, just my view here.

I did a quick search on here for stops on Fins quote or the market, just to get the right facts before answering and in the search popped up "Day betting on FTSE is possible" from 05, your first foray into day trading ftse, I shall read some more later.

For Heaven's sake, you guys, be careful with options.

Good Luck

Split

If only people would read this board more widely and pick up on the odd gem a certain recent debacle may not have happened:cheesy:
 
Well, I thought at the time that that is what might happen. This is where the theory of close stops falls down. Have included Yahoo's chart. As you say, market did not get to 6675, so I was fortunate.

Split
 

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Hi All,
Just to clarify my third reversal from 8AM 'strategy'.
It's the third reversal on the minute chart from 8:00AM (see Friday's chart image attached).

This seemed like a reasonable strategy when I was looking at a number of charts from two weeks ago and the start of last week, but on some days it was never going to work out. However the idea would be to exit trades on those days with minimal losses and come back next day.

Looking at the attached chart you can see where I made my first trade: 8:06 the RSI was telling me it was over bought.

I intend to continue this strategy (RSI) and see where it ends. seems too simple right? must have been tried by many before? but I intend to basically scalp and scalp again. Hopefully this very short term low points approach will work . but of course, we shall see.

good luck all,
shortorlong
 

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Hi shortorlong,

Go the way you went last week and you'll be fine. It's very difficult to know if Footsie is going to come back and stop you out for 2 points at any point, IMO.

The important thing for me, and that I have not mastered, is trend direction. With close stops, that is most important for me.

Good luck this week!
Split
 
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