FTSE 100 - May

[Finirama]

Might be in wave 4 with 5 still to come?

I just think that there might be more money coming into the market in expectation of OPEC to increase oil supply on Sat meeting?

 

[Finirama]

Stopped out at 45 so i'm flat

 

[JeanM]

The trouble with all these wave counts is that every one seems to have a different opinion. Then when they don't fit you change them to being something else. All very confusing!! In reality the most likely thing is that we will now sit and wait to see what the US does this afternoon.

Jean

 

[mully]

JeanM,

Just remember wave counting works brilliantly through the rear mirror.

Unfortunately not so well when you look forward.

It , therefore, has the great ability to add to a trader's confusion.

KISS principle please.

 

[Finirama]

Jean,

Elliot wave is simple for me....if i clearly see 5 waves then i get out!!

 

[Hooya]

The trouble with all these wave counts is that every one seems to have a different opinion. Then when they don't fit you change them to being something else. All very confusing!! In reality the most likely thing is that we will now sit and wait to see what the US does this afternoon.

Jean

the key is not to just trade the ew. There are never more than two counts (visible) and sometimes often lead to the same trade. For example I went short at 49 as the next move was imo either going to be 4 of 5 down or a new 1 down....so either way it was down. I took the ponts at 41 staright away as the move was too quick imo. In theory if everyone counts correctly they should all be the same but it takes time to learn the rules to ew. And my counting often way off. As fins says. Simplify it....count 5 and 3s and try and work on bigger time frames.


"Unfortunately not so well when you look forward" ture mully but it's akong with Gann and fibs the only thing that paints a forward picture. Most helpful if you can get it right

 

[mully]

JeanM
Seriously,

No one knows the future, because if they did
markets would collapse as there would be no one to take the other side (hopefully!).

Markets exist because there is uncertainty about the future.

Markets allow traders/investors to exchange their view of the
future with other traders/investors.

Did not someone say that the strange thing about financial markets is that they are places where people agree about price but fundamentally disagree about value.

All that indicators/EW offer, if used wisely, is lower risk opportunities.

BUT never certainties.

However, the inherent danger of indicators/EW etc is that people think it gives them a degree of certainty over the future. (Note all the seminars etc that appear to use this line to hook punters)
Humans unfortunately seek certainty. (note popularity of astrology, market predicting services)

Take the ABC pattern I mentioned.
It is a corrective pattern.
It is a very well know pattern thought out TA history.

Once you see an ABC pattern complete there is the potential for a low risk opportunity/entry,
compared to recent prices.
Will it be profitable? Who knows.
But if you do not take it you will never now. What if it doesn't work out.
That is were tight stops at the low of the pattern will keep you alive for another opportunity. There is nothing wrong with being wrong.
It part of the business of trading.

The great thing about financial markets is that there are
numerous opportunities being created all the time.
The trick is not to have firm/rigid opinions
about the future direction of prices and
get wedded to them (trades) such that you loose your trading capital
and your ability to take future opportunities.

But clearly there are no certainties in Life (except death and taxes), but there are better opportunities around where the probability of success is more in your favour.

Hope this helps.

I approach trading on the assumption I am probably wrong (so I start small and am very willing to cut because I am expecting to!). However, once the market proves my trade right I increase my bet. Trailing stops etc make sure I don't give back my profits.

 

[JeanM]

As they say everyone has to find their own way. I tried EW and decided that it was too confusing for me other than 5's and 3's. I prefer to trade off the price action, with a bit of Fibs, and support and resistance thrown in. Also in my opinion, knowledge of the market your trading by watching the action day in day out for some considerable time is one of the most important elements.

Jean

 

[stevecartwright]

What time frame(s) are you guys & gals using

 

[Hooya]

5,10,30

 

[Hooya]

Similar to Mully "quick cutting" I personally believe the sucess comes in the ability to change ones mind quickly and recognise when a pattern has failed signal has failed

 

[bracke]

JeanM

Making waves I see.

I also find 'the waves' confusing particularly when they can be interpreted left, right and centre depending on the time frame that you happen to be looking at.

I accept that if you have latched on to a certain time frame and become experienced in identifying the waves they may be of use in reducing risk when entering a trade. But comparing price with sma and support /resistance appears to be easier.

I'll wave goodbye for now.

Regards

bracke

 

[Hooya]

Charts patterns , s&r are all open to interpretation, . Waves imo will take more than a year or two to learn.(for me anyway)....so in that respect yes they are harder.

 

[JeanM]

I am merely making an observation, not trying to make waves! Those who master things like EW have my greatest admiration. Only saying its not for me. There are some who don't do EW any favours by predicting huge rises and falls with no allowance for consolidation or ranges. Then when it doesn't happen, it is all change again. Purely my personal view.
I trade of a 1 minute chart Steve.


Jean

 

[bracke]

Hooya

Support/resistance may be open to interpretation but far less so than waves, or at least I think so.

I suppose the real question is whether it is worth learning the waves or continue to concentrate on s/r.

I note that currently the ftse is at support level 4440 and waiting for Godo (usa to give direction).

Regards

bracke

 

[Hooya]

"it is worth learning the waves "......dont know a bout waves but its worth learning as much as possible,

 

[bracke]

Yes,but it is necessary to concentrate on that which will give the best return.

Knowledge is a great thing but sometimes one has to decide what to let go and what to concentrate on.

Regards

bracke

 

[Hooya]

but s and r are just lines on a chart...does that take alot of concentration? Besides there are 8.5 hours in a FTSE trading day. Plenty of spare time to be learning. Ive been trading 2 years this Summer and can honestly say that I have not learnt half of what I want to . I agree alot of traders want ot come in make their money and leave and not develope any further but I treat this as a job so always looking to improve.

Some traders have been quoted as saying they have " never read a trading book in their life",
I think that stupid not because you need to readthe books but its a missed opportunity to arm yourself with knowledge.

 

[bracke]

"but s and r are just lines on a chart...does that take alot of concentration? "

No but if they do the job so be it.

Unfortunately or fortunately, depending on your point of view, I have a day job - I work from home.
So although I can access T2W as and when I want to I cannot devote 8.5 hours to trading.
I am gradually building up trading knowledge by visiting this site and in particular by conversing on this thread.

I do not have trading software or a feed so I am at a disadvantage in terms of day trading information.
If I eventually gain sufficient confidence to day trade I will take the plunge and purchase the necessary software.

Regards

bracke

 

[Hooya]

Sorry I thought you were trading intraday now. I guess its different for me as this is what I do for 8.5 hours aday so it makes sense that I would have the need/thirst for knowlege beyond what is needed..