Frustrated trader, need advice

marketpupil said:
I am very interested in seeing your next live trade, hopefully I can provide some additional worthwhile input. Also, my previous suggestion about stop/limit placement has been thoroughly back-tested and is historically sound.
Click to expand...

its historically sound for your entry/exit points, each has to do their own tests and as dinotoast says track the max drawdown each trade has before coming good.
 
Anyone shorting the EUR/USD currency pair right now? From what I can tell, it should continue to trend down throughout the day and also move down on Sunday. Although, watch out for a possible jump trade between today's close and Sunday's open...if the stop for your sell order is pretty tight, you may want to give it some breathing room so that it doesn't get caught on a 20-30 pip jump in the wrong direction (which happens frequently over the weekend).
 
Tomorrow, make sure to keep an eye open for the AU open in the EUR/USD currency pair. If the 3:30 bar closes up, there is a 75%+ chance of making a successful short sell. Here's the 30 min setup:

Entry:
Time = 3:30pm
Close is Greater than Open

Entry Signal:
at 4pm bar Open

Exit:
Time = 7:30pm

Exit Signal:
at Open of 7:30pm bar

Stop:
.0040 pips

Limit:
.0010 pips

This strategy is thoroughly backtested and proven both over a long-term and short-term testing period. Let me know if you have any questions. Ciao!
 
6am said:
Expected value of this strategy is negative
0.25*(-40 pips)+0.75*10pips = -2.5pips

What am I missing?
Click to expand...

The key to success in this trade is taking into account the amount of times that you exit the trade before reaching your S/L or TP. Keep in mind that this trade ends at the open of the 7:30pm bar, regardless of whether you've reached the stop/limit.

The reason for the exit condition is to keep us in the trade until a bullish reversal occurs. Here is how the numbers break down:

.0010 = 10 pips
.0040 = 40 pips
Lot Size = 100,000 ($10 a pip)
Time = Since 06/05/2009

Winning % = 76.39%
Total trades = 233
Winners = 178
Losers = 55

Gross Profit = $21,847.00
Gross Loss = $12,836.00

Total Net Profit = $9,010.00

Overall, a very profitable trade. The key is to build a portfolio of small trades like these that serve to keep you disciplined, and consistent. With time and patience, you can use these trades to turn a small account into something serious.
 
marketpupil said:
The key to success in this trade is taking into account the amount of times that you exit the trade before reaching your S/L or TP. Keep in mind that this trade ends at the open of the 7:30pm bar, regardless of whether you've reached the stop/limit.
Click to expand...
OK, make sense.

marketpupil said:
.0010 = 10 pips
Lot Size = 100,000 ($10 a pip)
Winners = 178
Gross Profit = $21,847.00
Click to expand...
It does not add up. The average win is $21,847.00/178 = $122.74 = 12.274 pips. But you have a take profit 10 pips. Do you relly on the occasional gap and broker who will improve your take profit price (not everybody does that)?
 
6am said:
OK, make sense.


It does not add up. The average win is $21,847.00/178 = $122.74 = 12.274 pips. But you have a take profit 10 pips. Do you relly on the occasional gap and broker who will improve your take profit price (not everybody does that)?
Click to expand...

Bingo! Because back testing software uses historical data, you get the exact difference between the bid and ask price every time...no need for speculation. To account for this difference, I generally build in an extra 2 pips to my TP (it will bring your win percentage down a bit, but I find it to be a little safer).
 
Sorry for the late update.

Our trade materialized yesterday. The gain was 10 pips ($100) over 3 bars. I'll update you guys if this trading opportunity happens again today. Cheers!
 
You can't expect to make it overnight in this business- its really tough and takes alot of hard work. I lost money for years before I found something that worked.

Keep at it and eventually you will make it if you truly have the desire and work ethic to succeed..
 
marketpupil said:
Tomorrow, make sure to keep an eye open for the AU open in the EUR/USD currency pair. If the 3:30 bar closes up, there is a 75%+ chance of making a successful short sell.

This strategy is thoroughly backtested and proven both over a long-term and short-term testing period. Let me know if you have any questions. Ciao!
Click to expand...

What a load of cobblers. There are an infinite number of patterns and you've found one. You may also find that over the last twenty years, GBP/USD rallies on the third Wednesday of May 87% of the time. This does NOT mean it has a 87% chance of rallying on that day this year.

Or if you do believe this, you need to take a lesson in basic statistics.
 
marketpupil said:
Tomorrow, make sure to keep an eye open for the AU open in the EUR/USD currency pair. If the 3:30 bar closes up, there is a 75%+ chance of making a successful short sell. Here's the 30 min setup:

Entry:
Time = 3:30pm
Close is Greater than Open

Entry Signal:
at 4pm bar Open

Exit:
Time = 7:30pm

Exit Signal:
at Open of 7:30pm bar

Stop:
.0040 pips

Limit:
.0010 pips

This strategy is thoroughly backtested and proven both over a long-term and short-term testing period. Let me know if you have any questions. Ciao!
Click to expand...

:LOL:...this should be in the "Jokes and Humor" section on T2W
 
meanreversion said:
I've recently noticed that USD/JPY tends to rally when it's raining in central London. If the forecast for tomorrow is poor, I'm going to go long spot.
Click to expand...

Well I hope, for your sake, weather forecasters in London are more accurate than the ones in Toronto :LOL:
 
meanreversion said:
What a load of cobblers. There are an infinite number of patterns and you've found one. You may also find that over the last twenty years, GBP/USD rallies on the third Wednesday of May 87% of the time. This does NOT mean it has a 87% chance of rallying on that day this year.

Or if you do believe this, you need to take a lesson in basic statistics.
Click to expand...

This is the basic difference between Fundamentalist and those who make trades based on TA and historical data. All I can tell you is that this strategy has been a consistent winner in the past and is currently a consistent winner.

With regard to statistics, when over the course of 19 months, there are 200+ trades made and over 150 of those are profitable, I would certainly say that there is a natural bias in the market.

Thanks for the reply.
 
Those of you who wish to laugh can do so, I am simply sharing with you a strategy that has been proven to be consistent over time for my account. Time based trading works.

Now, an update for you who are interested:

The 3:30pm bar closed up. I am back in the AU open trade short selling until the open of the 7:30pm bar, until I hit my stop of 40 pips, or my limit of 10 pips.

I will update you once this trade is completed. Cheers!
 
marketpupil said:
This is the basic difference between Fundamentalist and those who make trades based on TA and historical data. All I can tell you is that this strategy has been a consistent winner in the past and is currently a consistent winner.

With regard to statistics, when over the course of 19 months, there are 200+ trades made and over 150 of those are profitable, I would certainly say that there is a natural bias in the market.

Thanks for the reply.
Click to expand...

Er, did you make 150 successful trades in the market in 19 months, or is that your backtest?

Can I ask why you think that all patterns which have occurred in the past should repeat themselves?
 
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