From first live trade to.....?

[Scotty2Cues]

missed sell aud/jpy 81.50

 

[Scotty2Cues]

eur/usd hit went passed sl by 7/10 of a pip

I hace eur/gbp sell order at 85.60 50 slwhich was just missed by 1.1 pip

 

[Scotty2Cues]

eur/gbp missed my sell order by 1.1 pips SICK

eur/usd took out my sl by 7/10 pip, would now be in profit with SL to BE. SICK

missed aud/jpy would now be in profit with SL to BE. SICK

 

[Scotty2Cues]

I will be taking 20% of account to use for high risk with the aim of compunding (I may as well put my signature to use).

My account has 100:1 leverage and if I have worked it out correctly then to get a margin call at the point my SL is hit is given by:

SL/(100 + SL) SL = stop loss in pips.

So with a 25pip SL the most I can risk is 20%, with SL = 100pips it would be 50%, but using SL = 25pips, 100pip gain is 80% account and 50% acount growth with 100 pip SL.

Kelly's number gives the % to risk for optimal growth if you know the probabilities of win, loss, or breakeven:

Fraction to bet F = (R*W-L)/R(W+L)

average growth per trade y = [(1+FR)^W]*[(1-f)^L]

Account growth after N trades = y^N

R = Reward (as in 1:3 etc)
W = probability of win
L = probability of loss

Alternatively if you are going to risk a certain fraction, its easy to calculate the minimum W needed.

Been paper trading and now ready to put first live trade of 2011... :cheesy:

 

[Scotty2Cues]

first trade of 2011 :cheesy:: sold gby/jpy 133.23. SL was 133.48 but moved to BE. S&R, 50% fib, GBP/USD at top of range and talk that BOE will raise rates later than whats priced in due to bad gdp etc.

Risked 20% of my 20% "partitioned" account. So 4% of total account

Earlier opportunity for sell at 1.33 but I wasnt by the screen

 

[Scotty2Cues]

first trade of 2011 :cheesy:: sold gby/jpy 133.23. SL was 133.48 but moved to BE. S&R, 50% fib, GBP/USD at top of range and talk that BOE will raise rates later than whats priced in due to bad gdp etc.

Risked 20% of my 20% "partitioned" account. So 4% of total account

Earlier opportunity for sell at 1.33 but I wasnt by the screen

just got stopped out

 

[Scotty2Cues]

first trade of 2011 :cheesy:: sold gby/jpy 133.23. SL was 133.48 but moved to BE. S&R, 50% fib, GBP/USD at top of range and talk that BOE will raise rates later than whats priced in due to bad gdp etc.

Risked 20% of my 20% "partitioned" account. So 4% of total account

Earlier opportunity for sell at 1.33 but I wasnt by the screen

annoyed as stopped out to the pip and price would have reached my 25 pip target (r:R=1:1) BUT:

The 50% fib was 133.314 and resistance was at 133.25 so maybe should have placed my sell order at a higher price, used a smaller SL, enabling me to take profit before support at 133 even though price now below that...

Obviously if my order was at 133.25 and price only got to 133.23 I would be saying I should have placed my SL lower so that I dont miss out...

 

[Scotty2Cues]

Thinking of buying gbp/usd around 1.6250 (lovely opportunity around 0735 this morning after +ve nationwide house data) and/or gbp/jpy in range 133.25-133.
Hopefully usd/jpy supported at 82 after reports mentioned less demand for safe haven currencies.

 

[Scotty2Cues]

Thinking of buying gbp/usd around 1.6250 (lovely opportunity around 0735 this morning after +ve nationwide house data) and/or gbp/jpy in range 133.25-133.
Hopefully usd/jpy supported at 82 after reports mentioned less demand for safe haven currencies.

ended up buying gbp/jpy at 133.30 40 pip SL in case price went to support at 133. Risked 28% of my 20% partitioned account.

SL now at BE; what a waste of a SL...

now going for a 3 mile run after which I full expect my SL to have been hit...

 

[Scotty2Cues]

set tp for 40 pips so r:R = 1:1

currently 20 pips in profit...

 

[Scotty2Cues]

ended up taking profit on gbp/jpy buy at 133.60 for 30 pip profit ; approx 20% of partitioned account or 4% of total account,

 

[Scotty2Cues]

That 40pip SL was too much, using 25 is better as I can then always open another position if I get stopped out. Suppose having a losing trade at this stage will affect me.

 

[Scotty2Cues]

Had been looking to buy gbp/usd at 1.6216 ish but it came down hard so left it. It did bounce but looks like it might break support so may look to sell there

B. Obama just text me to say NATO may get involved in Libya so prolly not good for GBP with risk off and gbp/jpy looking like dropping.

Also interest rate talk with euro and uk not helping gbp

 

[Scotty2Cues]

Bought eur/usd 1.3929 using the "spike base pattern" from nobrainertrades.

1 hour spike due to Trichet speech last thurs.

The spike base was actually at 1.3926 but was 1.3929 on 4hr and I didnt want to miss. Stop loss now at BE. TP at 1.3954

 

[Scotty2Cues]

messed up my position size so didnt risk as much as i would like.

Stopped out at BE now anyway

 

[Scotty2Cues]

Not sure if I was lucky or unlucky today. Lucky as I thought the 2 trades opened at the same time were gonna lose but instead gave a 1% total account increase.

Sold gbp/usd 1.6215, 25 pip sl and got stopped out very quickly although a 30 pip SL would have given me a nice profit.

Also sold eur/usd at 1.3924 with 25 pip sl and was nearly stopped out but managed to luck a profit. Also TP was hit to the pip at 1.3894 before returning to my entry point.



Total account up 5% this month with 20% segregated bit up 25%.

 

[Scotty2Cues]

For the gbp/usd trade, I was hoping for cluster of sell orders and buyers taking profits around 1.6215 due to previous support and resistance there. An extra 5 pip SL would have included support turned resistance (pink rectangle on chart) and given anice profit.

Recent UK economic data hadnt been to good either.

 

[JDTRADER]

Golden:

CLASSIC !

Are you live or demo ?

Do you use Candlestick Charts ?

 

[Scotty2Cues]

Are you live or demo ?

Do you use Candlestick Charts ?

Live and I dont use candlestics. Bar charts give the same info as candlestics and I only really looked at pinbars while demoing.

Suppose I just play battleships or kriegspiel (chess where you cant see opponents pieces); ie use obvious support/resistance to try to determine where clusters of orders are and join the ride. Also keep an eye on data releases, news etc to keep me out of trouble.

 

[JDTRADER]

Cool good luck

Is this your first live account ?

I blew up my first account on CMC 2 years ago its a long road mate :smart: