I agree and suspect that the larger players probably spend more money on information than I do. Paying for the right information is one of the keys.
I agree and suspect that the larger players probably spend more money on information than I do. Paying for the right information is one of the keys.
DionysusToast
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Fibs work for the same reason random lines drawn on a chart work.
the hare
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In fairness, swing points do tend to cluster around fib levels in a more orderly fashion than they would around a randomly selected level.
Having said that, the skills required to make money from a fib level are the same as the skills required to make money from a random level, so you might as well take the simplest approach.
If you where really smart, you could forget about drawing any lines at all :smart:
Don't you find reading this thread makes you lose the will to live ? It's only 9:47 and I think I need a drink after reading this stuff just to get through the rest of the day.
Shakone
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In fairness, swing points do tend to cluster around fib levels in a more orderly fashion than they would around a randomly selected level.
Having said that, the skills required to make money from a fib level are the same as the skills required to make money from a random level, so you might as well take the simplest approach.
If you where really smart, you could forget about drawing any lines at all :smart:
Don't you find reading this thread makes you lose the will to live ? It's only 9:47 and I think I need a drink after reading this stuff just to get through the rest of the day.
What's the evidence for the fact that swing points cluster around fib levels. Define fib level and swing point.
Vasco da Banana
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I tried toxophily once, but the arrows kept missing the chart.
the hare
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That's a very fair point, and you could waste an awful lot of time trying to get your head around that stuff
I would argue that you have to take a pragmatic approach. For me, the key point is applying whatever method youve selected consistantly
To grossly simplify the argument does it matter if you measure the length of an object in feet, inches, millimeters, centimeters, or as a multiple of the length of my cats tail, so long as you define the method and stick to it consistantly ?
It's easy enough to design a filter to identify market turning points, I grant you the sensitivity of that filter will be a function of the parameters used in its construction. I could write quite extensively on this issue, but will refrain from doing so, but there are pragmatic approaches that could be realistically justified.
Once you have a bunch of swing points in some timeframe (which again is quite arbitrary, but could be justified on the basis that traders use particular standard timeframes) then by definition, you have levels associated with those points.
Of course you have the classic data mining bias issues, and I'm sure it would be easy enough to optimize a method that would identify levels that where subsequently respected (again defined by another arbitrary rule)
Obviously there are additional rules regarding the persistence of those levels etc.
I hasten to add I wouldnt trade this nonsense, and I appreciate just how easily we can be fooled by randomness, but I wouldn't dismiss fib levels completely out of hand without a lot more research. But as you point out, TA based research is fundamentally flawed if you want to take a pure evidence based perspective.
The thing is though, if I tossed a coin 1000 times and it came up heads, I'd probably bet heads on the next throw, despite my academic understanding of the situation. So on a practical level, if I'm trading to keep my hand in, rather than making a living, I will use fibs if there's a confluence with per existing support and resistance. I suppose its a bit like avoiding walking under ladders
wiseambitions
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Don't knock it til you try it. I multiplied one account far more than double, more than treble, even much more than quadruple between the end of September and the middle of December
Fractals are to me just another word for support and resistance. And watching for breaches in support and resistance are one of the best ways of getting in on impulse waves and making good profits.
IOW, "fractals" is a word that is meant to impress the uninitiated, because "fractals" is much more complicated than that, in the true sense of the word. Just Google it and see.
BeginnerJoe
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Can we see a statement ? Better still, call out some trades and show us how you double, treble, quadruple your monies.
DionysusToast
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You do not need a statement Joe.
Everything you need to know is already in his claim.
the hare
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Nice one
On one hand, the lulz is great, on the other hand reading this thread makes me lose the will to live. What a dilemma.
wiseambitions
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Ok, if fractals in mathematics has a different meaning that's all very well, however the fractals which I undersstand here are just swing highs and swing lows which become support and resistance points.
As an example just look at the eurodollar around 0634 GMT this morning, on the 5 minute chart at which time I manually entered a long and got a decent return on capital in a few minutes. I know it subsequently turned around, and formed a lower fractal at 0830GMT, (again on m5) after which just before 0900 upon breaching it again whenI went short and had another nice and welcome win.
It works for me and that's all I care
As an example just look at the eurodollar around 0634 GMT this morning, on the 5 minute chart at which time I manually entered a long and got a decent return on capital in a few minutes. I know it subsequently turned around, and formed a lower fractal at 0830GMT, (again on m5) after which just before 0900 upon breaching it again whenI went short and had another nice and welcome win.
It works for me and that's all I care
neil
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Lightning McQueen
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this looks to be a breakout method from most recent swing high/low areas, with a heads up on trade direction taken from a count of the colour change in the macd (the coloured dots)
no expert on fractals, wouldn't really know a fractal if it slapped me in the chops. can we be enlightened where the fractal element is? and how it is at play here? thanks.
How did I know, by reading that first sentence, who was posting?No hard feelings, Joe, you are doing a good job. :clap:
DionysusToast
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Fractals became quite popular in the late 80's, early 90's with the rave scene, ecstacy and LSD.
I can remember on many occasions driving along the M6 at 5am on a Sunday morning studying fractals as I drove. Fascinating.
And the fractals at Glastonbury.... they were a site to behold. Certainly more visually appealing than the toilets.
I can remember on many occasions driving along the M6 at 5am on a Sunday morning studying fractals as I drove. Fascinating.
And the fractals at Glastonbury.... they were a site to behold. Certainly more visually appealing than the toilets.
L
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