wallstreet1928
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let me add these two factors to make it more interesting, I have sent this analysis to subscribers on my site
I have attached 3 charts
1. UUP(is an ETF that follows the US dollar index) - there is a potential H&S formation on this and I encourage you all to monitor this.
you can follow the UUP in real time for free at
http://www.freestockcharts.com/
2. US dollar Index - trading within the channel and is currently at support
3. EUR/USD - threatening to break out of the channel after the inverted head and shoulders, but resistance remains at the 3 months trend line
now lets fit these jigsaw pieces together
FTSE 100 is very sensitive to commodity prices due to its heavy weighting in the index, and commodity prices are sensitive to the US dollar
http://www.ftse.com/Indices/UK_Indices/index.jsp
If we know which way the US dollar will move, then we can position ourselves accordingly
scenario A
UUP H&S formation plays out and the neckline is breached. That means the US dollar will break below the channel , which means the EUR/USD breaks out of the channel, commodities such as oil and gold and any other risk currency such as cable(GBP/USD) will fly northwards and the equities will follow
scenario B
UUP H&S fails to materialise, the US dollar bounces and remains obedient to the channel ........EUR/USD remains obedient to the channel and sells off......commodity, risk currencies and equities will all fall and the top is in the market
FTSE 100 top will be 5650 !!
I currently have a bias to scenario B , but I will try to remain objective and only come to that conclusion after further analysis of the FTSE 100 and its equity variables and the commodities(OIL and GOLD)
please send me your analysis and any alternative scenarios
thank you
I have attached 3 charts
1. UUP(is an ETF that follows the US dollar index) - there is a potential H&S formation on this and I encourage you all to monitor this.
you can follow the UUP in real time for free at
http://www.freestockcharts.com/
2. US dollar Index - trading within the channel and is currently at support
3. EUR/USD - threatening to break out of the channel after the inverted head and shoulders, but resistance remains at the 3 months trend line
now lets fit these jigsaw pieces together
FTSE 100 is very sensitive to commodity prices due to its heavy weighting in the index, and commodity prices are sensitive to the US dollar
http://www.ftse.com/Indices/UK_Indices/index.jsp
If we know which way the US dollar will move, then we can position ourselves accordingly
scenario A
UUP H&S formation plays out and the neckline is breached. That means the US dollar will break below the channel , which means the EUR/USD breaks out of the channel, commodities such as oil and gold and any other risk currency such as cable(GBP/USD) will fly northwards and the equities will follow
scenario B
UUP H&S fails to materialise, the US dollar bounces and remains obedient to the channel ........EUR/USD remains obedient to the channel and sells off......commodity, risk currencies and equities will all fall and the top is in the market
FTSE 100 top will be 5650 !!
I currently have a bias to scenario B , but I will try to remain objective and only come to that conclusion after further analysis of the FTSE 100 and its equity variables and the commodities(OIL and GOLD)
please send me your analysis and any alternative scenarios
thank you