FX Thoughts for the Day - 16/12/03
> Morning Edition
> 1200 IST or 0625 GMT
>
> Euro @ 1.2335/40....Targets 1.2375-1.2400
> R: 1.2357 / 1.2375 / 1.2425-35
> S: 1.2300 / 1.2261-52 / 1.2234-20
> Strong upmove in the US session. Assumption of profit-taking correction proved wrong. Target of 1.2375 and 1.2400 seems feasible for the day. Supports as above. Yet, there's a sense of foreboding that a medium term top should be forming soon. The way the market played out in the 27-May to 16-June period this year (it stalled after hitting 1.1935) may give an idea of how things might turn out this time.
>
>
>
> $-Yen @ 107.71/6...Sideways?
> ----------------------------------
> R: 107.87 / 107.98-108.00 / 108.15
> S: 107.64-54 / 107.30-25 / 106.90-85
> The Yen has been more stable. Expect Support above 107, near 107.30. Chances of small rally towards 108.15-25 looks possible. Bearish only on break of establisghed low of 106.73. Sideways between 107.50-108.50 for now.
>
>
>
> Euro-Yen @ 132.92/7....Holding Long
> --------------------------------------------
> R: 133.50 / 134.3 / 135.18
> S: 132.25 / 132.13-03 / 131.81 / 131.68
> 200-day MA Support now at 131.81. The market has consolidated near it over the last 4 days and now seems likely to move up further towards 135.
>
> Our earlier Long (131.25) was squared at 131.70 in yesterday's early morning trade. We've gone Long again at 133.00 today. Forecasting 135 is easy. Trading for it is more difficult when stupid volatility takes you out of a good position.
>
> Holding:
> EUR 20K Long at 133.00, SL 132.00, TP open
>
>
>
> $-Swiss @ 1.2591/6...Can fall to 1.25
> ----------------------------------------
> R: 1.2630 / 1.2654 / 1.2662-69 / 1.2680
> S: 1.2588-78 / 1.2550 / 1.2500
> According to the 4-hour Chart, we should either see a sharp fall towards 1.2550-30 or a sharp rise towards 1.2650 during the European session. A 30-50 point follow-through in the direction of the move may also take place. The downside looks more probable than the upside.
>
> Order:
> Sell $25K at 1.2570, SL 1.2615, TP 1.2510
>
>
>
> Cable @ 1.7459/64....Staying out
> ---------------------------------
> R: 1.7470 / 1.7497 / 1.7512
> S: 1.7453 / 1.7442-39 / 1.7417
> Not advisable to take fresh Longs. Looks like the oxygen is getting thin now. Levels above 1.7550 may be difficult to achieve and sustain. At the same time, see decent Support for the day near 1.7420-15. Buying on a dip towards 1.7350 (if seen) might be good. Not now. Can we sell? No. Staying out.
>
> Happy Trading!
From:
Kshitij Consultancy Service