I sent an email to him at [email protected] on 2/15 and got a response back within the hour. Don't know what's up with him not getting back to you.
Jerry
I sent an email to him at [email protected] on 2/15 and got a response back within the hour. Don't know what's up with him not getting back to you.
Jerry
davewooldridge
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frustration
Another frustrating, but profitable week. Its driving me nuts to get these big gains and then give it back. I am being strictly mechanical, exiting on the arrow or fast trend, not resistance. I move stops up to break even but have been taking one postion vice 2 or 3 smaller ones, therefore I cant scale out . I am assuming it wuld be a wash in the long run, as sometimes my one big position runs farther than if I took the partial profit on a half. Still tough to see profit go bye bye though. I am trying to use price action to exit but not seeing anything to act on. For example usdchf last week, a couple bearish bars then plowed through support by the time that bar closed it was down 150pips from the hi. Anyone care to comment?
Another frustrating, but profitable week. Its driving me nuts to get these big gains and then give it back. I am being strictly mechanical, exiting on the arrow or fast trend, not resistance. I move stops up to break even but have been taking one postion vice 2 or 3 smaller ones, therefore I cant scale out . I am assuming it wuld be a wash in the long run, as sometimes my one big position runs farther than if I took the partial profit on a half. Still tough to see profit go bye bye though. I am trying to use price action to exit but not seeing anything to act on. For example usdchf last week, a couple bearish bars then plowed through support by the time that bar closed it was down 150pips from the hi. Anyone care to comment?
davewooldridge
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I do notice the hourly gave an exit much sooner, anyone using the hourly to fine tune entries or exits?
coolpixel1
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Yes, I agree. I often check(ed) these and the 30min charts, this would be a logical method to get an early-warning, though the question is - would one get out on the H1 as soon as FPM gave an exit signal on that timeframe or... wait a bit? And the other thing that springs to mind is that it might work better on some pairs than on others. Volatile pairs may show 'exits' quicker but they may in the broader picture be just pullbacks. I for one, wouldn't mind getting out after being in profit, not lamenting potential pips if it was just a regression in a continuing trend, as I'm in profit, rather than the annoying situation so many of us have experienced - getting an exit signal too late, and having given it all back!
It's a difficult balance.
One one hand, it is clearly beneficial to take any good profit - especially when the other charts are indicating that the trend is poised for a change in direction.
However, FPM has a low percentage of profitable trades overall, therefore the trades that do win need to be sufficiently high to compensate for the considerable number of losing trades - sometimes exiting a trade early could rob you of an extra 100+ pips, which could mean the difference between overall net profit or loss.
Clearly, this method has been well designed and tested by its creator. By following the rules exactly, it has been proven to end up in profit in the long run.
However, it's a METHOD, not an automatic system. There are other basic TA techniques which I think can be applied in certain circumstances without trying to second guess the logic of the overall system.
For example:
I'm currently short on GBP/USD. I entered at 1.5621
It broke through the support at 1.5549 and then touched 1.5345, which is a significant trend line. At that time, it showed signs of continuing (all trend indicators were still showing a strong downward trend), however it has now bounced back off the trend line and is currently trading at 1.5468.
In hindsight, taking profit at the trend line would have been a wise move - 276 pips profit. Despite the fact that there were no indicators telling me to get out, the shorter trends were clearly moving in the opposite direction and we had hit a significant trend line.
At the moment I'm 153 pips in profit, and it now seems to be ranging. With no significant news planned today I'm happy to leave it open to see if it resumes the downward trend when the US session opens.
If it hits the resistance at 1.5549 and bounces back, I'll let it run. However, if there's a 4 hour close above the resistance I will take the remaining profit - should be around 72 pips.
If there were signs that the downward trend was coming to an end (as opposed to ranging) I would exit the trade now. However, that doesn't seem to be the case so I'll hang tight for now.
Regardless, I will be exiting the trade in profit
The problem with the 4H charts is that the exit signals DO come quite late, often 100 pips or more. However, provided your exit strategy is based on sound TA logic, and you follow the same principles for each exit, I can't see their being a problem.
It may be worth those of us who are currently using the method to post our trade entries and exits in this thread. Hopefully the sharing of the knowledge between us will help highlight the most consistent methods of exiting trades with maximum profit - which appears to be the key to this method!
One one hand, it is clearly beneficial to take any good profit - especially when the other charts are indicating that the trend is poised for a change in direction.
However, FPM has a low percentage of profitable trades overall, therefore the trades that do win need to be sufficiently high to compensate for the considerable number of losing trades - sometimes exiting a trade early could rob you of an extra 100+ pips, which could mean the difference between overall net profit or loss.
Clearly, this method has been well designed and tested by its creator. By following the rules exactly, it has been proven to end up in profit in the long run.
However, it's a METHOD, not an automatic system. There are other basic TA techniques which I think can be applied in certain circumstances without trying to second guess the logic of the overall system.
For example:
I'm currently short on GBP/USD. I entered at 1.5621
It broke through the support at 1.5549 and then touched 1.5345, which is a significant trend line. At that time, it showed signs of continuing (all trend indicators were still showing a strong downward trend), however it has now bounced back off the trend line and is currently trading at 1.5468.
In hindsight, taking profit at the trend line would have been a wise move - 276 pips profit. Despite the fact that there were no indicators telling me to get out, the shorter trends were clearly moving in the opposite direction and we had hit a significant trend line.
At the moment I'm 153 pips in profit, and it now seems to be ranging. With no significant news planned today I'm happy to leave it open to see if it resumes the downward trend when the US session opens.
If it hits the resistance at 1.5549 and bounces back, I'll let it run. However, if there's a 4 hour close above the resistance I will take the remaining profit - should be around 72 pips.
If there were signs that the downward trend was coming to an end (as opposed to ranging) I would exit the trade now. However, that doesn't seem to be the case so I'll hang tight for now.
Regardless, I will be exiting the trade in profit
The problem with the 4H charts is that the exit signals DO come quite late, often 100 pips or more. However, provided your exit strategy is based on sound TA logic, and you follow the same principles for each exit, I can't see their being a problem.
It may be worth those of us who are currently using the method to post our trade entries and exits in this thread. Hopefully the sharing of the knowledge between us will help highlight the most consistent methods of exiting trades with maximum profit - which appears to be the key to this method!
salvadorveiga
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giving up open profits is part of what trend following is... so either you accept it or trend following may not be for you... the stops or exits ain't coming that late. They come pretty much at the same time of a 3x ATR stop which for trendfollowing is more than appropriate
salvadorveiga
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little modification... i'm using ATR stops and at 90% of ATR stop I add to the position since the actual stop is very very close the risk is minimal and morer often than not, it will bounce from there, so i take advantage of it with a bigger position
I'm trading with FPM in several months, but, as you can see either in my blog http://fx4e.wordpress.com/ I've got many large loss and only a few small gain.
I'm stick with the plan, strictly with author's guide:
- FPM;
- 4H;
- 8 pairs;
- Rules of entry (Fast Trend and slow trend);
- Rules of exit (little arrows contrarian);
- Money management (risk 1% max 2% per trade);
- Size (calculated with ADR);
- Patient;
- Discipline;
So, what's wrong with me ?
Many thanks.
Best regards.
_________________
Trading will save to us.
Blog: http://fx4e.wordpress.com/
Email: [email protected]
Skype: fx4everskype
I'm stick with the plan, strictly with author's guide:
- FPM;
- 4H;
- 8 pairs;
- Rules of entry (Fast Trend and slow trend);
- Rules of exit (little arrows contrarian);
- Money management (risk 1% max 2% per trade);
- Size (calculated with ADR);
- Patient;
- Discipline;
So, what's wrong with me ?
Many thanks.
Best regards.
_________________
Trading will save to us.
Blog: http://fx4e.wordpress.com/
Email: [email protected]
Skype: fx4everskype
Salvador,
Can you give an example of your stop placement and trade management? Thanks,
Jerry
I am curious what the feeling is about the following idea for trade management. I'm giving thought to taking 1/2 of the original position down when support or resistance is hit and then letting the rest run until their is an opposing arrow or a bar crossing to take the exit. I've thought about bringing the stop up to break even if support or resistance was hit but not sure about that. You could be taken out of the trade and miss a long run which is really what this trading is about. Any feedback would be great.
Jerry
Jerry
Hello Jerry,
your doubts are mines
The author says:
a) No S/R exits;
b) No trailing stop;
c) No move the SL to BE;
d) but he do use some discretion (price divergence and candlestick analysis) (!?!?!?!?)
So, my doubts are the same
It is my understanding that the whole concept of this method is to follow the mechanical signals.
Therefore, the stop loss is simply there to protect against unforseen events - for example a large and uncharacteristic movement in price overnight or while you are away from your computer.
I've been working on the basis that if I'm getting stopped out before the relevant exit signal then either:
(a) i'm trading around events that I shouldn't be (i.e. significant news); or
(b) i'm setting my stops too close
Clearly, on 4H charts for a volatile pair, this can mean some pretty big stops. But you have to give the method room to breathe. Getting stopped out at 150 pips is no good if the trade then swings back round and gives you an exit signal at a 50 pip loss, or potentially even a profit.
I'm lowering my position sizes and increasing my stops (therefore keeping my overall exposure the same) to allow the method to tell me when to exit.
As for exits, well that seems to be the key to this method. I'm going to follow the rules exactly for the meantime (i.e. when the fast trend crosses or an exit arrow appears).
Therefore, the stop loss is simply there to protect against unforseen events - for example a large and uncharacteristic movement in price overnight or while you are away from your computer.
I've been working on the basis that if I'm getting stopped out before the relevant exit signal then either:
(a) i'm trading around events that I shouldn't be (i.e. significant news); or
(b) i'm setting my stops too close
Clearly, on 4H charts for a volatile pair, this can mean some pretty big stops. But you have to give the method room to breathe. Getting stopped out at 150 pips is no good if the trade then swings back round and gives you an exit signal at a 50 pip loss, or potentially even a profit.
I'm lowering my position sizes and increasing my stops (therefore keeping my overall exposure the same) to allow the method to tell me when to exit.
As for exits, well that seems to be the key to this method. I'm going to follow the rules exactly for the meantime (i.e. when the fast trend crosses or an exit arrow appears).
me too, but with bad results
this is why I'm trying to understand better from other people use this method
fx4e,
Actually the author says there are 3 possible exits. They are: 1.exit upon reaching support/resistance 2. exit when you see the exit arrow 3. Exit when the fast trend moves back above or below the zero line. But you're right about no trailing stop or moving stops.
Jerry
Many thanks, Jerry
in my humble opinion, gains do not cover the costs with this system, if used as the three point as above.
But, I repeat, I'm using it for only three months, and maybe I'm wrong with some things.
In trading range market it will destroy the account, even if you use a good MM.
Or, you have to manage an account so large............in this case I don't use it.
IMHO
Last edited:
fxtrader85
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Don't agree. I've looked over some past 4h signals and they are fairly accurate. Of course, at times you may find yourself down 200 pips or so, but that's bound to happen with ANY trend following system. With good MM you CAN cope with this easily. I've just looked at my charts and literally taken the first 4H signal that I found....
Check the attachment, the most you'd be down is 104 pips...
Attachments
fxtrader85,
do you work on the basis that your s/l is simply there to cover disasters and that you keep it wide enough to allow the trend to move (ie 250 pips on a pair with an ADR of 100 pips), and then exit only on a generated signal?
I've had a quick look back through most of the pairs, and it seems that allowing the system to determine the stop itself incurs much lower losses than if you get stopped out at the ADR with your own stop loss.
do you work on the basis that your s/l is simply there to cover disasters and that you keep it wide enough to allow the trend to move (ie 250 pips on a pair with an ADR of 100 pips), and then exit only on a generated signal?
I've had a quick look back through most of the pairs, and it seems that allowing the system to determine the stop itself incurs much lower losses than if you get stopped out at the ADR with your own stop loss.
