Forex "Pin" Bars

[eltrot1979]

Hi Vince,

This part is wrong. You drew the fib from the CORRECT swing low BUT you need to draw it to the recent swing high (23:00 on 8/02/2008). Remember - you want to see whereabouts the current pin is in relation to the WHOLE swing not just a random swing on a random day. I hope this makes sense. Fibs are hard to explain. Anyway, if you draw the fib from your original point to the 23:00 high you will find the pin stalled not far past the 61 fib. I like to ideally see the pins stall AT fibs rather than before or after them. Again, you can play with the rules a little bit, find out what works and what doesn't.

Tom

I don't get it! Why do you say the recent swing high is on 08 Feb? Is it not 13:00 on 11 Feb - please help me to understand!

 

[VinceStanzione]

Actually, eltrot1979 - T_D's choice of 08 Feb also confused me when he mentioned it.

When I revisited the chart to see where the major swing high was, I also come-up with your pin.

Could possibly be a freudian slip on T_D's part?

Or maybe, there's something we've both missed!! :smiley:

 

[trader_dante]

Actually, eltrot1979 - T_D's choice of 08 Feb also confused me when he mentioned it.

When I revisited the chart to see where the major swing high was, I also come-up with your pin.

Could possibly be a freudian slip on T_D's part?

Or maybe, there's something we've both missed!! :smiley:

It's because my MT4 is missing data so on my chart the swing high is where I said it was. At any rate, wrong price but same principle.

 

[eltrot1979]

Thanks for clearing that up, and taking time to help the newbies

 

[trader_dante]

Keep an eye on GBP/USD 1hr.

If this pin bar holds its shape at the end of the hour it is, in my opinion, absolutely unmissable.

 

[eltrot1979]

Usdjpy H1

This still hasn't broken either way and a couple of inside bars have formed. The Nose is at about 108.37. Drawing a horizontal line in at this level reveals some support around 4th Jan and resistance around 15th Jan, it also bounces around that area a bit on 21st-28th November 07. Drawing fibs from recent high to low, 10 Jan - 23 Jan, didn't reveal much, so I drew one from the previous days high to low instead and the 161.8 extension line is pretty close to the nose, though I believe TD doesn't pay attention to the extensions. I really need to learn more about these fibs and where to draw 'em!

The pins range is about 34 pins, which would be more than 5% of my meager account so I think I'll be passing on this.

since I posted regarding the above pin last night, price has remained in range of the pin. However, a new pin bar in the same area has just formed on the hourly - worth a punt?

 

[VinceStanzione]

Shame I don't have access to MT4 in work.

Wouldn't mind keeping my eye on the cable...

 

[eltrot1979]

Shame I don't have access to MT4 in work.

Wouldn't mind keeping my eye on the cable...

Try XE.com

XE.com - Free Chart

That's what I look at while I'm at work

Rob

 

[VinceStanzione]

Thanks Rob

 

[shortorlong]

since I posted regarding the above pin last night, price has remained in range of the pin. However, a new pin bar in the same area has just formed on the hourly - worth a punt?

well finally the market has spoken.. the pin bar was only worth about ten points .. or really nothing .. as we can't expect to collect the full range of any move ...

It is interesting to see no one human was prepared to give you an answer to your question. I looked at the hourly bars for the preceding year on this instrument to see if I could spot a similar set up didn't see anything similar .. most of the successful pins look to be at the top or the bottom of a distinct trend whereas this pin poked out of a rangbound market 18 hour old..

I refrained from posting because you never know .... I would hate to put someone off a trade that might turn out to be lucrative.

 

[shortorlong]

2pm pinbar on USDJPY .. will this one be telling a lie at last?

 

[eltrot1979]

Looks more pin like than the previous two I mentioned! I don't think it's body is in the range of the previous bar though... Can't analyse it properly as I'm at work

 

[eltrot1979]

Hopefully it will stick at 108.00 so I'm not left feeling too sick about being stopped out already!

 

[eltrot1979]

"don't chase the trade, don't chase the trade!" My finger is itchy

 

[shortorlong]

"don't chase the trade, don't chase the trade!" My finger is itchy

yeah that was another one that got away ..
talking of ones that got away there was also a 2pm pin (bullish this time) on EURUSD which offered 40 points

 

[LOVEJOY80]

yeah that was another one that got away ..
talking of ones that got away there was also a 2pm pin (bullish this time) on EURUSD which offered 40 points

In fact you could have got a total of around 70 points for the day if you'd played the inside bar that formed at 9am (exit at lower trend line that was touched by the pin bar at 2pm) and then the pin bar for 40 points.....did I see either....of course not, so easy to spot after the event!

 

[shortorlong]

In fact you could have got a total of around 70 points for the day if you'd played the inside bar that formed at 9am (exit at lower trend line that was touched by the pin bar at 2pm) and then the pin bar for 40 points.....did I see either....of course not, so easy to spot after the event!

how would you play the inside bar? long above the high short below the low?

 

[eltrot1979]

USDCHF H4 - Looks like a second pin bar is forming at a previous S/R zone. Looking at the hourly there is a double bar low, with bullish outer bars high just a couple of pips higher than the preceding bar. Would that be considered as supporting a long?

 

[LOVEJOY80]

how would you play the inside bar? long above the high short below the low?

See that attached chart. An inside bar forms from the top of the upward channel. This bar indicated a higher probability of trend reversal and the fact that it has met resistance at the upward trend line makes this a high probability trade in my view.

The pin bar then forms, with the nose hitting the lower support trend line. this is where you would have exited the short trade and then played long on the opening of the next bar above the pin bar.

Only my view of course.

 

[VinceStanzione]

See that attached chart. An inside bar forms from the top of the upward channel. This bar indicated a higher probability of trend reversal and the fact that it has met resistance at the upward trend line makes this a high probability trade in my view.

The pin bar then forms, with the nose hitting the lower support trend line. this is where you would have exited the short trade and then played long on the opening of the next bar above the pin bar.

Only my view of course.

I like this post for two reasons:-

Firstly, it shows the power on inside bars.

Now, I'm not sure if the inside bar satisfies the strict criteria (because I haven't tested it against them!); however, it signals a significant short movement & the potential pip profit that goes with that.

Stop management would have been critical however wrt to this inside bar. Price is whipsawing significantly on the subsequent bars; following a "move the stop in conjuction with each subsequent bar until break-downwards occurs" type of trade management would probably the trade stopped-out.

Secondly, a pin bar (again, I haven't checked it cf. the checker spreadsheet) forms at the bottom of the swing downwards where you have your trendline; and a nice rebound trade upwards would then be on.

Good Analysis.

VS