Forex Forecast

[fxmaster1]

EURO/USD
The euro stabilized above the 1.2250 figure as EU finance ministers rushed in to play down reports of Italy’s break away from the Euro.

Support at 1.2200
Resistance remains at 1.2380


USD/JPY
Breaching below the 107 figure for the first time since May 19, USDJPY sees support at 106.50, the 50% retracement of the 104.20-108.84 climb.

Support at 106.50
Resistance at 107.60

 

[fxmaster1]

EURO/USD
One day after Euro finance ministers rejected reports of Italy’s break away from the Euro, the focus shifted to ECB Chief Trichet and ECB Chief Economist Issing. After making remarks that encouraged the increase of personal spending, Trichet sought to clarify any misinterpretations that gave the impression of an impending rate cut. Meanwhile, Mr. Issing only indicated that a rate cut was an only an option.

Stabilizing under the 1.24 figure, EURUSD remains capped at the figure. Key resistance shall remain at 1.2400.

Support at 1.2260
Resistance remains at 1.2400

USD/JPY
The dollar approaches further near the 106.51support--the 50% retracement of the 104.20-108.84 climb. The key support follows at the 200-day MA of 106.11. Any emerging buying is seen capped at 106.80, followed by 107.30.


Support at 106.50
Resistance at 108.00

 

[fxmaster1]

EUR/USD
The dollar held steady across the board as Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan stuck to the Federal Reserve’s script of measured tightening and relatively optimistic economic outlook. Since Greenspan signaled no hints of an imminent halt in its rate hikes, fed funds futures preserved maintained the status quo, pricing a high likelihood of 2 more rounds of tightening for the year
EURSD is unable to break the 1.2260 resistance. Interim pressure point starts at 1.2280, followed by 1.2315-20. Key resistance remains at 1.2360, the 38% retracement of the 1.2691-1.2157 drop. Support starts at 1.22, followed by key foundation at 1.2160.

Today's support at 1.2120
Today's resistance at 1.2300


USD/JPY
The Yen fell for the second straight day on a combination of revised expectations ahead of (and after) Greenspan’s testimony and after the Bank of Japan decided to pump extra liquidity. USDJPY faces resistance at 107.65-70—the 50% retracement of the 104.20-108.85 climb. Key resistance stands at 108.20. Support seen starting at 107.20, followed by 106.51—the 50% retracement of the 104.20-108.84 climb. 106.05 remains as the 200-day MA.


Today's support at 108.50
Today's resistance at 106.80

 

[fxmaster1]

EUR/USD
The dollar’s 9-month high run against the European currencies spilled onto the yen, dragging the Japanese currency past the 109 support and onto a fresh 9-month high. In addition to seemingly dovish comments from ECB Chief Economist Otmar Issing today, last week’s softer than expected trade deficit figures from the US and Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan’s speech reiterating the monetary policy status quo renewed the dollar’s climb from a yield perspective and from an external angle.

Upside seen capped at 1.2150 backed by 1.2180 and 1.2220. The MACD indicator continues to show a decidedly bearish landscape in the near term until . Our next target for euro is 1.1950 .


Today's support at 1.2010
Today's resistance at 1.2180


USD/JPY
The Japanese currency broke its key double bottom at the 109 level to a 9-month low of 109.68after the government cut its Q1 growth estimates for to 4.9% from the previous estimate of 5.3% growth in light of growing inventories and slower global demand. The Japanese yen could also accelerate losses amid the acceleration in oil prices, as the nation is most dependent on the fuel.

The breach past the 109.60 opens the way for 110, followed by 110.50. With the 100-day MA breaching above the 200-day MA for the first time since November, upside above 110 remains a possibility. 109 turns to a support, followed by 108.50.


Today's support at 108.50
Today's resistance at 110.00

 

[fxmaster1]

EUR/USD
The euro rose and held above the 1.2100 level with much help from the dismal Philly Fed index and comments from Buba Chief Weber calling the current monetary policy “appropriate” and “expansive”. Weber’s comments poured cold water on recent speculation that the ECB is positioning towards a potential rate cut. ECB Chief Economist Issing reiterated the importance of structural reforms and asserted that deeper political integration was inevitable despite the recent rejection of EU Constitution.

The latest remarks from the EU summit indicate that EU leaders recognize that the process of Constitutional ratifications must continue but that the November 2006 deadline for a ratification is no longer feasible.

EURUSD faces resistance at 1.2170-80. Only a clear breach of 1.22 will open the way to a rally with the target at 1.2400.


Today's support at 1.2120
Today's resistance at 1.2300


USD/JPY
USDJPY has good support at 108.80 which was the previous resistance last week. Indeed, much depends on Friday’s Q1 current deficit report from the US, and to a lesser extent the Univ of Michigan sentiment survey. The 4-day turn around in USDJPY is typical of previous downturns preceding considerable down moves. A breach of 108.50 could call up 108.20 by early next week. Upside capped at 109.40, followed by 109.60.



Today's support at 108.50
Today's resistance at 109.80

 

[fxmaster1]

EUR/USD
Speculation about an ECB interest rate cut made the rounds again, this time amid reports of “unidentified” ECB sources citing a possible change in policy in Frankfurt. The euro’s latest gloom was intensified by the failure of the talks in the EU Budget talks where lack of consensus transitioned to indirect personal attacks. Speculation of a possible change in ECB rhetoric and ongoing lack of confidence with respect to reaching a single EU budget could send the euro below 1.20 even if the US data continue to sour.

EURUSD faces resistance at 1.2180, followed by increased pressure at the 1.2220 figure. Any dovish talk by the ECB combined with the usual pre-FOMC meeting dollar bullishness could drag the pair towards 1.2060. Key foundation stands at the 1.2020 double bottom on the hourly chart.

Today's support at 1.2080
Today's resistance at 1.2280

GBP/USD
Sterling followed its euro counterpart despite higher than expected money supply figures for May showing a 1.7% rise in May following a 0.7% increase in April. The fact that Bank of England Governor Mervyn stated the need to watch any inflationary pressures from the money supply figures quelled speculation of a rate cut later this year.
Breaching below 1.8250, cable faces short-term target at $1.82 followed by 1.8160. Upside capped at 1.8280 with increased pressure at 1.8320.


Today's support at 1.8200
Today's resistance at 1.8350

 

[fxmaster1]

EUR/USD
The euro gained more than half a cent in a delayed reaction to the better improvement in the ZEW survey, fading speculation of an ECB rate cut as well as increased signs of a cooling US economy. Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index rose to 19.5 in May from April’s 13.9, but remained well below historical average of 34. The ZEW Current Situation index deteriorates somewhat to -70 from -69.3, while the Economic Expectations index edged up to 16.7 from 14.8. ZEW economists attributed the improvement in sentiment to the “sharp depreciation of the euro as well as the hope that necessary reforms will be actively implemented after the autumn elections”.

Still facing resistance at 1.2180, EURUSD now calls up resistance at 1.22 figure, which is the 61% retracement of the drop from Monday’s 1.2280 high to today’s earlier 1.2070 low. A breach above 1.22 sees resistance at 1.2230. Support starts at 1.2150, followed by 1.2070.

Today's support at 1.2130
Today's resistance at 1.2280


USD/JPY
The dollar’s sharp tumble from the 109.47 high to the 108.20 low was attributed to aggressive sell orders from Swiss based accounts following speculation of a yuan revaluation to take place as early as the next few weeks. We expect the dollar to test the 108 figure targeting the 107.70 target. Increased talk of an eventual reduction in monetary liquidity could see the pair dropping to as low as 107. Upside capped at 108.50, followed by 108.80.


Today's support at 108.00
Today's resistance at 109.50

 

[fxmaster1]

EUR/USD
The euro declined this morning after Sweden’s central bank cut interest rates by a larger than expected 50 BP. The market had anticipated a cut of 25 BP, but citing an economic slowdown within the Eurozone, the Riksbank decided to lower rates to 1.5% - a new record low.

EURUSD tested 1.2200 resistance yesterday, but traded lower on EUR rate cuts talks. The bearish momentum for this pair continues to increase and we still favor the downside. For the European and NY sessions, wait to sell EUR/USD between 1.2150 and 1.2170 with stop above 1.2230


Today's support at 1.2050
Today's resistance at 1.2180

USD/JPY
USD/JPY failed to test 109.40 resistance. The pair is still in a bullish uptrend as long as the 108.50 support holds the any dips today. For the upcoming session the currency may range between 109.00-108.50, with preference of buying on dips for a new test of 109.70.

Today's support at 108.50
Today's resistance at 109.50

 

[fxmaster1]

EUR/USD
The euro revisited last week’s low for the year of $1.216 amid deteriorating consumer confidence in Italy. The report showed that the Eurozone’s 3rd largest economy deepened further into recession, further giving rise to speculation of an ECB rate cut. Although the ECB seems to have opened the door towards a rate cut, we do not expect the Bank to ease due to the potential inflationary risks generated by a combination of currency decline and rising oil prices.

The euro could hit a new low for the year on Friday following the release of the US durable gods orders, which could have risen by as much as 4.0% in May, 4 times as much as consensus forecasts due to aircraft orders.

A neat head &shoulder formation near 1.2020, could trigger renewed bearishness towards the 1.20 figure and 1.1985. Key support follows at 1.1960. Chances of a rebound face resistance at 1.2070 and 1.2130.

Today's support at 1.1940
Today's resistance at 1.2080

USD/JPY
As USDJPY approaches the 109 level, it presents gradual signs of topping for chances of a turnaround to 108.60. A reach of 108.40 calls up 108.10—the 50% retracement of the 106.49-109.70 rally. A breach of 109 stands sees increased toppishness at 109.40.

Today's support at 108.80
Today's resistance at 109.80

 

[fxmaster1]

EUR/USD
Germany’s IFO survey rose to 93.3 in June from 92.9, showing its first increase after 6 monthly declines. Rate cut speculation was curtailed after ECB officials dismissed the need for a rate cut this weekend with Executive Board member Smaghi indicating that lowering interest rates “wouldn’t be helpful” and Luxembourg’s cen bank chief Yves Mersch saying that “rates are appropriate.Dollar weaker with oil breaking new highs. Oil prices was a strong driving force for the weakening of the dollar with U.S. crude futures for August delivery neared $61.


Today's support at 1.2120
Today's resistance at 1.2300
USD/JPY
The dollar’s previous gains versus the yen started to dissipate as so did the effect of the remarks from Beijing restating it would not be pressured into changing its currency regime. But the fact that a revaluation is inevitable is limiting any emerging dollar gains.

Today's support at 109.00
Today's resistance at 110.30

 

[CliffB]

Well, EUR/USD support level is broken.

 

[fxmaster1]

EUR/USD
One day after Germany's IFO survey showed an improvement in business, the GfK consumer confidence index for July dropped more than expected, reaching 3.5 from May's 4.3. But the euro could garner some support after the Eurozone 3-month moving average for M3 growth rose to 6.9% from 6.6% in April, well above the ECB's former reference value of 4.5% (Y/Y). Although the ECB has formally dropped this indicator from its "pillars" for monetary decision making, it remains a key measure of excess liquidity, a factor that continues to preoccupy the hawks at the ECB hawks. The figure also further dampens speculation of a rate cut as was the case after the remarks made by ECB officials this weekend.

The euro could also lose fresh ground amid expectations that the Fed may not drop any hints on any halt in the Fed's rate hikes. Support holds at 1.1950. Interim resistance stands at 1.2150.


Today's support at 1.1950
Today's resistance at 1.2150


USD/JPY
USDJPY broke through the 110.00 barrier, selling started above 110 . But the break did confirm the upside trend and expect test of 110.50 in the upcoming session .
The bulk of the yen's losses occurred in Asian and European trade, after oil closed above $60 per barrel in the US on Monday for the first time ever. Japanese Finance Minister Tanigaki said crude prices will need to be carefully monitored even though they haven't had much direct impact on Japan's economy yet. Nonetheless, now that Chinese leaders have firmly stated they would not be pressured into changing their current FX regime any time soon, this offers more downside on the yen. Adding to this the strains from higher oil, USDJPY could target 110.80s.



Today's support at 109.60
Today's resistance at 110.50

 

[fxmaster1]

GBP/USD
The dollar stabilized off its session lows following today’s coordinated bomb blasts in London, which were reported to have resulted into the death of about 50 people and about 1000 injured. Currency market reaction was not swift as it took nearly an hour before the first blast was confirmed to have been a bomb rather than just a power failure. Once the subsequent 3 blasts took place, the pound and the dollar began their declines.

The currency market reaction was most visible at approximately 4:50 am New York Time, almost an hour after the first bomb, when the dollar and the pound began falling against the major currencies, with the dollar losing about 1.5 cents against the euro from 1.1925 to as much as 1.2040 before stabilizing towards the 1.1950s. Sterling hit a 19 month low against the dollar at 1.7396

Today's support at 1.7340
Today's resistance at 1.7500

USD/JPY
USD/JPY remains weak on the oil issue and USD/JPY could yet see a move to 112.50 resistance with potential for a little spill-over before any significant consolidation back lower sets in.


Today's support at 111.30
Today's resistance at 112.80

 

[fxmaster1]

EUR/USD
The USD slipped after key US jobs figures came in below analysts' expectations. Although the report came as something of a disappointment to dollar bulls, it is not likely to make a serious dent in the current positive sentiment towards the US currency.the 1.2050 level will continue to prove hard to break above


Today's support at 1.1920
Today's resistance at 1.2050

USD/JPY
With oil prices remaining near record highs and continued expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, the USADJPY has been pushed higher – currently trading near its highest level since May 2004 at 112.10-20. Once a resistance level, 111.40 is now acting as a support level for USDJPY.

Today's support at 111.40
Today's resistance at 112.50

 

[fxmaster1]

EUR/USD
Despite the desperately needed improvement in the IFO report, the euro’s fortunes were sullied by the PBC comments. The pair faces its interim support at 1.1980, backed by 1.1950 and 1.1920. Upside starts 1.2061—the rise from the 1.1872 low to the 1.2254. Key resistance stands at 1.2120.


Today's support at 1.1950
Today's resistance at 1.2120

USD/JPY
Japan’s PM Koizumi’s legislation enabling privatization of the postal made it through the Lowe House of Parliament, and avoided the dissolution of Parliament. But the legislation has yet to pass the upper house, a failure of which would require calling a new election is real. These elements are presenting the yen with growing uncertainty, especially as traders play down the probability of any impending revaluation of the yuan.


Today's support at 112.00
Today's resistance at 113.80