Following the money: catching the trends before they realize

[timsk]

I'm glad everyone gets a kick out of my rejection of traditional trading knowledge and terminology.

Hi Mr. Crabs,
Rejecting traditional trading knowledge is fine, if you're able to express clearly what's wrong with it and offer something in its place that you think is better. In part, that's what T2W is for, so no issues on that front. However, rejecting traditional trading terminology isn't very helpful, unless you provide good reasons for doing so and explain what words you propose to use instead - with comprehensive definitions. To introduce existing words that have a completely different meaning to the one you attribute to them just muddies the waters. IMO, the criticisms made of you on this front are completely justified, if expressed a tad harshly.

I suggest you stick to traditional terminology and then members will be more inclined to focus on your trading, rather than on your writing style.

Tim.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Gold broke down yet again

Still waiting on gold to fracture, would like to see it pull back under 1,330 and to find support right around 1,320 before rebounding and re-energizing the bulls.

Just as I predicted. I consider under $1,330 the loading zone and would support at $1,300 if it drops that far.

IF gold were to accumulate here through the rest of this week a nice gap on Monday would likely rally the bulls and send the price on its' way near $1,500 which is my target for this quarter.

This way gold can cool off late this year and early next year while the market shifts clear into blue skies and subsequently begins to sell.

 

[NVP]

Mod-tem my outlook is to buy the AUD, short the EUR as I mentioned in prior threads. This trend realized partially but the EUR has been holding up staunchly. The AUD on the other hand moved up much quicker than I anticipated.

This leads me to a new short-term idea that the EURUSD will pivot, the EUR will fracture dragging the AUD down with it in the short-term. The CAD will move up contrary, after the CAD bounces the USD will pull back and the AUD will resume its' high intensity rebound. :idea:

Hey There ......

are you suggesting there is a tradable relationship based on the EUR/CAD/AUD triad ?

interesting
N

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Hey There ......

are you suggesting there is a tradable relationship based on the EUR/CAD/AUD triad ?

interesting
N

If it's a major currency then of course there's a tradable relationship. Problem is it's tough to crack the evolving relationship between 2, 3 or all of the major currencies. The CAD may move up contrary to the EUR one quarter and nearly in unison the next. But I think it's safe to say for this quarter the EUR moving down will move up the AUD and if it doesn't there's a good probability it will bring up the CAD instead.

 

[WR1]

The animosity is possibly more to do with these such lines

"Just as I predicted. I consider under $1,330 the loading zone and would support at $1,300 if it drops that far"

most people remember those that call things correctly, so they don't really need to be pointed out
and one always has to remember, no one likes a smart ****
especially not on trading forums

anyhow, good call on Gold

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Nah I'd rather spice it up.

Hi Mr. Crabs,
Rejecting traditional trading knowledge is fine, if you're able to express clearly what's wrong with it and offer something in its place that you think is better. In part, that's what T2W is for, so no issues on that front. However, rejecting traditional trading terminology isn't very helpful, unless you provide good reasons for doing so and explain what words you propose to use instead - with comprehensive definitions. To introduce existing words that have a completely different meaning to the one you attribute to them just muddies the waters. IMO, the criticisms made of you on this front are completely justified, if expressed a tad harshly.

I suggest you stick to traditional terminology and then members will be more inclined to focus on your trading, rather than on your writing style.

Tim.

I like to keep everyone on their toes and to keep you guys guessing.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Come now. I'll be a wiseguy smart ass if I want to.

The animosity is possibly more to do with these such lines

"Just as I predicted. I consider under $1,330 the loading zone and would support at $1,300 if it drops that far"

most people remember those that call things correctly, so they don't really need to be pointed out
and one always has to remember, no one likes a smart ****
especially not on trading forums

anyhow, good call on Gold

I'm doing this for myself. My memory is non-existant. This is why I have to keep track of when I am correct and when I am not.

WTF people.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

The EUR moved down quicker than I anticipated

This leads me to a new short-term idea that the EURUSD will pivot, the EUR will fracture dragging the AUD down with it in the short-term. The CAD will move up contrary, after the CAD bounces the USD will pull back and the AUD will resume its' high intensity rebound. :idea:

Wow that was a huge move the EUR encountered this afternoon. Seeing as the USD moved up well in advance of the EUR moving down I think the USD will consolidate during the EUR's rebound. This should take the rest of this week and probably some of next week as well. I think that a good spot to re-load the EURUSD short would be around 1.365.

CAD moved up strongly with the EUR moving down while the AUD did not. This leads me to believe the AUD will hold its' ground while the CAD retracts. Buying the AUDCAD may not be a stupid idea.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

I was short AUDCAD, That proves I am definitely right.

I was short AUDUSD. I am right.

I was short AUDJPY. I am right.

So, in conclusion, I am right.

 

[rsh01]

I was short AUDCAD, That proves I am definitely right.

I was short AUDUSD. I am right.

I was short AUDJPY. I am right.

So, in conclusion, I am right.

how much are you selling that hindsight box for? how many are left? can i put an order in for a box calling yesterdays closing prices?

 

[BeginnerJoe]

how much are you selling that hindsight box for? how many are left? can i put an order in for a box calling yesterdays closing prices?

I have 89 left. You had better place your order quick before they all go. These boxes can even call out weekend prices on Mondays and they are always right. The MTBN (mean time between not-right) for these boxes is 32 years.

 

[rsh01]

i watch tv (fox news obviously) and it rarely reports yesterdays events accurately. i will need to test this 'special box', criteria being it must have a 50%+ strike rate of predicting old news stats from at least a few days back.

sounds a bit far fetched to me.

 

[neil]

Could be

I was short AUDCAD, That proves I am definitely right.

I was short AUDUSD. I am right.

I was short AUDJPY. I am right.

So, in conclusion, I am right.

Maybe

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Gold dropped into my buy range, sent a strong buy signal

Still waiting on gold to fracture, would like to see it pull back under 1,330 and to find support right around 1,320 before rebounding and re-energizing the bulls.

Bottom at $1,306 turned into a very strong bounce. I think there's a high probability the run is back on. Fat chance the price dips back under $1,310. Smart money is loading here for $1,500 target I presume.

 

[NVP]

If it's a major currency then of course there's a tradable relationship. Problem is it's tough to crack the evolving relationship between 2, 3 or all of the major currencies. The CAD may move up contrary to the EUR one quarter and nearly in unison the next. But I think it's safe to say for this quarter the EUR moving down will move up the AUD and if it doesn't there's a good probability it will bring up the CAD instead.

Hey Mr C

based on what ?.......

short term momentum ?
historic performance ?
inter-market correlation ?

and is there a reason why these particular 3 are chosen instead of other currencies ?

would be interested to know .....

thanks
N

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Based on big money judging which is over-bought/sold

Hey Mr C

based on what ?.......

short term momentum ?
historic performance ?
inter-market correlation ?

and is there a reason why these particular 3 are chosen instead of other currencies ?

would be interested to know .....

thanks
N

They have a large surplus of capital and take advantage of this by moving some of it from currency to currency. There's groups of people who have such a massive surplus that they literally can make hundreds of millions of dollars just by changing which currencies they are holding the majority of that surplus in. These people make the price move. All I do is take advantage of them by finding the most favorable and least favorable havens for their cash before their buying and selling have begun affecting the price.

Imagine if you are an individual who is one involved in leading a very large investment group and you have a cash flow surplus of 10 million dollars per day. You have to put that somewhere. You can't just hold onto profits as large as those if you want to maintain a level of liquidity, you have to take profits all the way up, the market won't sustain you if you hold and try to sell it all at the top. It would be foolish to not make returns on those sitting profits this is why they move some of that cash (or all of it and on leverage) from their default currency to other currencies. Because then they can take advantage of price fluctuations i.e. over - bought and sold. IF they over-bought their currency (via holding cash profits and thus decreasing the supply) then they can short-sell it when they move their holdings from say the GBP to the AUD. This way they facilitate the price of the GBP falling into a more appropriate valuation and then they can cover their shorts after they've moved their cash back into the GBP and out of the AUD.

Isn't this common sense? I feel like I am wasting my time. :|

Anyway hope this helped.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Ready for the EUR and gold to rebound this week?

I think that's where the money is going to be at for the next week to two weeks.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Twitter IPO this week, I made a thread for it.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/sto...stock-chat-discussion-thread.html#post2214360

Twitter is where it's at this month. Perfect sized market cap and notoriety.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

USD may be in for a bit of a spill this week.

I think that's where the money is going to be at for the next week to two weeks.

IMO EURUSD is a buy for this week, gold I speculate is a good buy for at least the next 2 weeks; bulls should stay quiet this week and get loud next week. AUDUSD looks like it should be a good pair to buy as well; at least for this week. After the EUR rebounds the EURAUD short is the choice pair for the next quarter or two. I think long-term the USD and the EUR will both decline but the EURUSD will top off and move down during that time.

 

[random12345]

They have a large surplus of capital and take advantage of this by moving some of it from currency to currency. There's groups of people who have such a massive surplus that they literally can make hundreds of millions of dollars just by changing which currencies they are holding the majority of that surplus in. These people make the price move. All I do is take advantage of them by finding the most favorable and least favorable havens for their cash before their buying and selling have begun affecting the price.

Imagine if you are an individual who is one involved in leading a very large investment group and you have a cash flow surplus of 10 million dollars per day. You have to put that somewhere. You can't just hold onto profits as large as those if you want to maintain a level of liquidity, you have to take profits all the way up, the market won't sustain you if you hold and try to sell it all at the top. It would be foolish to not make returns on those sitting profits this is why they move some of that cash (or all of it and on leverage) from their default currency to other currencies. Because then they can take advantage of price fluctuations i.e. over - bought and sold. IF they over-bought their currency (via holding cash profits and thus decreasing the supply) then they can short-sell it when they move their holdings from say the GBP to the AUD. This way they facilitate the price of the GBP falling into a more appropriate valuation and then they can cover their shorts after they've moved their cash back into the GBP and out of the AUD.

Isn't this common sense? I feel like I am wasting my time. :|

Anyway hope this helped.

Don't take this badly, but have you worked above VP level in top tier? Which groups of people are these that you're referring to who make money on a whim like this? Quarterly institutional FX profits from trading don't tend to be particularly massive so I'm very interested to know who makes 'hundreds of millions' over and over like this.