Best Thread Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Copper
COT Change (52W) / C-21%, SS-32% /
If we look at the 5 year chart of Copper, we can see that we don’t really have a clearly large COT extreme in the market. It is mainly the change size that could affect prices. As the review correctly suggests, if we look at a shorter time period, then we arrive at a relative extreme in the market. I have indicated the two last cases, when we had such a large extreme. I’m not saying that it is Copper that is the most exciting trade this week, but for anyone trading it regularly, it is wise to look at it this way.

Australian Dollar
COT Extreme / C- All Time, LS-All Time /
The extreme we saw last week in AUD has widened more, now Commercials are at their All Time levels too. It is a definite bearish picture that we have.

Japanese Yen
COT Extreme / close to All Time level everywhere /
The extreme has stopped widening in this market, which could easily mean that we have reached the extreme --> we should be witnessing higher prices soon.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Cotton
COT Change (52W) / C-32%, LS-26%, SS-30% /
As Commercials are increasing their net short positions cotton prices start to incline – at least if we look at the past similar situations.

Palladium
COT Extreme / C-110 report, LS-All Time /
Large Speculators have reached an All Time extreme level, which seems to be a very nice bearish signal in this market.

Currencies: AUD, JPY, MXP
All Time / near All Time extremes in all of these markets!!

I wish all of you MERRY CHRISTMAS AND A VERY HAPPY (AND PROFITABLE ) NEW YEAR!
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here

 

[Lodian1019]

Hi mate, just to say thanks for keeping these posts going, great bit of info.
Lodi

 

[Dunstan]

Hi mate, just to say thanks for keeping these posts going, great bit of info.
Lodi

Thanks Lodi! Let me know if you have any questions regarding the report. Good luck to you in 2013!

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

5-Year Note
COT Change (52W) / C-25%, LS-19%, SS-33% /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-83%, LS-18%, SS-54% /
We’ve got a couple of bullish signals in this report --> 1) The change in positions of traders was large 2) COT extreme (not an All Time, but still measurable) 3) Both Commercials and Large Speculators are NET LONG, only Small Speculators are on the short side.

Silver
COT Change (52W) / C-19%, LS-15%, SS-21% /
Although we see a large change in this report for silver, let’s not forget that usually these are short lasting signals that could affect prices for a few days. The general picture, the extreme in the market has an opposite directional signal. If we look at the last COT extreme (approx. a month ago), you can see that prices have started to react and thus fall. This signal is still in place, at least until the COT extreme starts to widen again and we see levels of net short ~55-60 thousand contracts for Commercials / net long ~40-45 thousand contracts for Large Speculators / net long ~20-25 thousand contracts for Small Speculators.

Japanese Yen
COT Extreme / SS-All Time /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-98%, LS-6%, SS-0% /
After two weeks, small speculators are again All Time Extreme. It looks as if this extreme will widen a bit more; stress levels have not reached their peak point yet. It is not an easy game, so it could be wise to be careful in this market and not to aim to catch the exact bottom --> A good strategy may be, to wait until we see a significant move away from these extreme levels and this coinciding with increasing prices --> to wait for the bottom to be visible. For example: Commercials pull back to ~100 thousand contracts net long, Large Speculators decrease net short levels to ~60-65 thousand contracts and small speculators go back to net short of ~30-40 contracts. As this happens, Yen goes to 1.18-1.20. Although this way we give up “a couple of” pips, the reward potential will still be large enough for the trade to be worth it and we stay away from some loosing traders while prices fall.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Orange Juice
COT Change (52W) / C-16%, LS-13%, SS-23% /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-49%, LS-49%, SS-62% /
The relative cot extreme signal from two weeks ago that started this latest price decline is in my opinion still in place. The change that we can see now is not that significant, but of course could affect prices for a few days, and we have close support levels if we were to consider a long trade. My guess is that the decline should continue.

Oats
COT Change (52W) / C-13%, SS-22% /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-76%, LS-34% /
I don’t necessarily agree now with this latest review… of course it is true that the best buy signal would be, if Commercials where to become net long, but a relative extreme exists – as the COT Index shows correctly - that may trigger a rally.

Palladium
COT Extreme / C-All Time, LS-All Time /
I don’t think it necessary for me to talk too much about palladium, the picture is pretty clear and if you’ve been following my thread, you should know by now that All Time extremes are the strongest cot signals. The only important remark that needs to be carefully dealt with is the fact that these extremes could widen for some weeks before they trigger a price reaction. I’ve said it before a couple of times that it is best to combine cot analysis with regular TA tools and risk management tools. What is nice in this market now is that resistance levels are very close so taking this signal and going short would have a very nice Risk/Reward ratio. So the conclusion is that we don’t know for sure that prices will fall from here, but the odds of this happening are high – thanks to the high stress level in the market – and the risk taken on a possible trade would be low.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Orange Juice
COT Change (52W) / C-27%, LS-31% /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-68%, LS-25%, SS-61% /
The change size this week was greater than the previous week, we are moving away with large steps from the last cot extreme that started this latest decline. As this is happening, we get closer to a relative extreme that will have a bullish signal --> look at the previous couple of bottoms in price correlating with relative extremes in COT.

USD Index
COT Change (52W) / C-27%, LS-25%, SS-27% /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-69%, LS-32%, SS-27% /
The last significant cot extreme happened two weeks ago, when Commercials were net long almost 15.000 contracts. Following this signal, prices started to go higher and commercials have cut back from their long position. In my opinion if prices decline below 79, we could see a widening of this mentioned cot extreme, seeing net long positions of >15.000 contracts for commercials. Till that happens, the cot extreme from two weeks ago is in place and we should be expecting higher prices.

5-Year Note
COT Extreme / C & LS-143 report extreme /
If you look at the longer chart of 5-year note, you can see that almost all the time, when Commercials were net long / at the net 0 level, that coincided with a bottom in prices. We are witnessing this again, furthermore we are at an important support level that would give us the opportunity to use close stops --> giving us a good Risk/Reward for the trade.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Coffee
COT Change (52W) / C-28%, LS-27% /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-77%, LS-24%, SS-60% /
The change and the relative cot extreme (looking at a 1-1,5 year period) suggest a price decline. On the other hand, if we open a longer chart, we can see that the longer term picture is bullish. Commercials are net long and when that was the case, we were close to a bottom in prices.

Platinum
COT Change (52W) / C-17%, LS-15%, SS-20% /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-13%, LS-86%, SS-55% /
We’ve witnessed some great cot extremes in the past few weeks without any significant price reaction. Looking at the cot charts my guess is that the rally could continue until we see another All Time COT extreme (Commercials net short, while Large Speculators net long >50-55.000 contracts and Small Speculators net long >7-8.000 contracts).

Mexican Peso
COT Extreme / LS-All Time COT extreme /
We have again an All Time Extreme in Mexican Peso. The last one (few weeks ago) was not able to stabilize a price decline so we are witnessing the widening of the extreme. Of course as stress levels are getting higher, so does the chance of a top in prices.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Live Cattle
COT Change (52W) / C-32%, LS-31%, SS-20% /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-77%, LS-10%, SS-100% /
COT Extreme / SS-387 report COT extreme /
All cot signals have a bullish bias this week. The change in trader’s positions was pretty large and dynamic, while Small Speculators are at an extreme level. It would be an even stronger bullish signal, if also Commercials and Large Speculators were at such extreme levels (perhaps Commercials net long would fulfill that), which could easily happen at the next report.

Cotton
COT Change (52W) / C-22%, LS-21%, SS-26% /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-5%, LS-100%, SS-82% /
Large COT change combined with a relative cot extreme: to me this picture is bearish. It is definitely a very exciting market with interesting signals. I recommend you to watch to the remarks told in the review!

British Pound
COT Change (52W) / C-20%, LS-13%, SS-30% /
Although GBP was mentioned because of the relatively large COT change in trader’s positions I have marketed a few very nice points (tops & bottoms) on the chart that coincides with cot extremes. Another great example how well cot analysis can be applied for currencies!

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Canadian Dollar
COT Change (52W) / C-32%, LS-17%, SS-67% /
Both signals, the large cot change and the extreme that we are getting closer to are bullish signals that suggest to me, we could expect higher prices in the near and also medium time horizon.

Gold
COT Change (52W) / C-21%, LS-25% /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-79%, LS-11% /
The signs that the cot report is showing us, are pointing a bit upwards in this market. Although we see significant extremes in Platinum & Palladium, I think – at least in the short term – we could expect higher price --> Small Speculators usually signal well a turn in prices, they are not at extreme long levels at the moment.

British Pound
COT Change (52W) / C-20%, LS-9%, SS-38% /
Basically only Small Speculators are pessimistic about the market, so this, combined with Commercials buying tells me that we could be expecting a bottom in prices soon.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Rough Rice
COT Change (52W) / C-40%, LS-56% /
COT Index (5 year lb.) / C-81%, LS-18%, SS-35% /
I can’t agree with the review this time. Thomas didn’t look at the 5-year chart, which tells us a very different story… This is why I recommend all of you, to always open a longer term chart, besides the default one year, since the cot extreme can only be checked on those. While the one year long chart suggests that a good sell opportunity is in formation, the 5 year long chart shows that we are at a COT extreme. Of course there is no question to the fact that the cot change was large – we may see a decline in prices in the near term (or maybe not) – but on the other hand, the long term picture to me is definitely bullish.

RBOB Gasoline
COT Change (52W) / C-21%, LS-25% /
COT Extreme / C & SS-All Time COT extreme /
Both signals, the COT change and the COT extreme are talking about a bearish picture. Although I agree, I wouldn’t be surprised if this cot extreme widened a bit more. I’ve told you before a couple of times, that COT analysis can be used best, if combined with regular technical analysis. I don’t really see – TA speaking – anything against the continuation of this rally. Consequently I would stay aside until the situation changes, but it’s definitely good to know – and that’s why following the COT report is useful – that stress levels are high in this market.

Metals
Platinum & Palladium: COT All Time extreme levels (bearish)
Copper & Silver: COT Extreme levels (bearish)
Gold: Relative COT extreme (bullish), Volume & Open interest score is -11 (bearish)
It is a mixed picture in metals these days… Since these markets strongly correlate with each other, taking the All Time COT extreme signals in Platinum and Palladium and going short would be a risky trade – in my opinion. If the picture in Gold, Silver and Copper where undoubtedly Bearish (for example if Small speculators in Gold were at net long >60.000 contracts) it would be a more comfortable trade. It’s not a question that the long term picture is more bearish than bullish, but the timing of a potential short trade is the key question. As the review tells us, the widening of the cot extreme in Platinum and Palladium could go on for weeks before prices start to react.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Coffee
COT Change (52W) / C-45%, LS-41% /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-97%, LS-3%, SS-58% /
Both signals, the cot change and the cot extreme (LS and C are near their all-time extreme levels) are pointing upwards this time, the picture is bullish. As always, the question is: would we see the rally starting now or only much later. I would say that if we find other technical indicators supporting a long trade, we could feel a bit more comfortable taking it knowing that the cot data supports it.

Rough Rice
COT Change (52W) / C-24%, LS-32%, SS-10% /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-74%, LS-29%, SS-29% /
It seems that last week’s large cot change had an effect on prices. If we look only at the past one year’s picture, then we shouldn’t be surprised at all. If prices continue to decline, I’m guessing commercials and large speculators would return to their extremes shortly, which would be another strong bullish signal.

Palladium
COT Extreme / C & LS-All Time COT extreme /
I’m guessing the picture talks for itself

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

(sorry for the late post, but I was out of town for a few days…)

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Gold
COT Change (52W) / C-21%, LS-21% /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-99%, LS-0%, SS-21% /
I think Gold is the most bullish from all metal markets, but it’s not at an unquestionable bottom. Looking at Silver for example, where we also had large changes in the recent report, we can see that we have more space left for the decline to continue, not to talk about Platinum, Palladium, where it is quite visible, that we have a very bearish picture.

Cotton
COT Extreme / LS-All Time COT extreme /
It looks that the rally triggered by the signals a couple of months ago (commercials net long) has come to an end. The extreme suggests that we should be looking at shorting opportunities.

Coffee
COT Extreme / LS-482 report COT extreme /
It’s interesting to see two markets from the same group to have such opposite signals… while in Cotton Commercials have moved back to deep short territories, here we can see that they are still net long --> bullish picture.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Heating Oil
COT Change (52W) / C-34%, LS-34%, SS-28% /
Another example, when we have the COT extreme and COT change indicating opposite signals. Which one should we listen to? Well I think if we look at the intensity with which prices have started their decline (after last week’s cot extreme), we should expect a bigger chance for the continuation of the decline, then a significant reversal.

Canadian Dollar
COT Change (52W) / C-29%, LS-31%, SS-22% /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-100%, LS-5%, SS-0% /
COT Extreme / C-236, LS-57, SS-297 report extremes /
We are witnessing a significant extreme in the market, signaling a bullish picture in the near (?), medium time horizon.

Feeder Cattle
COT Extreme / LS-All Time extreme /
I don’t think I can add any smart words here, the picture is pretty clear

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Nasdaq-100
COT Change (52W) / C-22%, LS-22% /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-40%, LS-67%, SS-45% /
A larger than average change size in a cot extreme neutral environment --> the last larger extreme was a few months ago, successfully pushing prices higher, but we are not at an opposite extreme yet that could put an end to the rally.

Cotton
COT Extreme / C & LS-All Time COT extreme /
In a couple of months’ time we got from a large buy signal cot extreme to a large sell signal cot extreme --> interesting. The last major sell cot extreme was in 2010, but it was one of those rare cases (commercial capitulation) when prices without any reaction, skyrocketed up. Would commercials fall in the same mistake and build up such large short positions that they cannot hold? If they’ve learned their lesson and have plenty of margin left, then we can expect a top in prices soon.

Soybean Oil
COT Extreme / C & LS-All Time COT extreme /
Beautiful all time cot extreme in one of the best markets --> cot analysis is quite effective in soybean markets, so the signals are more reliable here than in other markets.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Sugar
COT Change (52W) / C-23%, LS-21%, SS-19% /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-75%, LS-25%, SS-41% /
Not long ago, Commercials were ne long signaling a bullish cot extreme (the last time they were net long, was back in 2007). As they are “retreating” back to short levels, prices have started to incline, seems as if this cot extreme has affected prices. The sell signal we are getting from the COT change should not get too much attention, in my opinion, it is the extreme that has a stronger influence on prices --> I’m expecting prices to go higher.

Palladium
COT Extreme / C & LS-All Time COT extreme /
Another All Time COT extreme in Palladium. I think before anyone starts to jump on it and starts shorting it, we should look at other metals first to see if we have a similar case there. Palladium could easily rally for another few weeks/months --> in this case we would experience the widening of the cot extreme.

Cotton
COT Extreme / C & LS-All Time COT extreme /
To tell you the truth, my guess is that we will experience the same situation we had back in 2010, when commercials could not hold their positions and the rare, so called “commercial capitulation” happened --> prices rallied through the sky as commercials were forced to exit their short contracts.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Rough Rice
COT Change (52W) / C-42%, LS-53%, SS-18% /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-95%, LS-3%, SS-18% /
All COT indicators are pointing in the same direction, suggesting that taking a long trade may be a good decision.

Soybean Oil
COT Extreme / C & LS-All Time COT extreme /
All Time COT Extreme in a market, where cot analysis is really effective. We are getting this extreme at a point, where the Risk/Reward of the trade can be really favorable.

USD Index
COT Extreme / C & LS-All Time COT extreme /
Similarly to Rough Rice, we’ve got the cot change signal and cot extreme signals pointing the same way (down).

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Natural Gas
COT Change (52W) / C-29%, LS-35% /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-14%, LS-90%, SS-55% /
A pretty large change in Natural Gas that may take prices lower. We can’t really talk about an extreme, so I would say that the rally could easily continue for some time.

USD Index
COT Extreme / LS-All Time COT extreme /
Such levels of extremes in the near past could put a pause in the rally of USD Index.

Copper
COT Extreme / LS-194 report COT extreme /
A bullish picture in copper, although we are not at an all-time extreme level yet. I think it’s important to look at the rest of the metals before one decides to take a trade in this market.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Palladium
COT Extreme / C & LS-All Time COT extreme /
Prices have started their decline, although I would feel more comfortable stating that we are in for a serious price decline, if we could break support levels at around 700. Otherwise we can easily expect the continuation of the rally parallel with the widening of the extreme.

Copper
COT Extreme / C-42 report, LS-214 report COT extreme /
Here we see a bullish signal in the report that might stop this recent decline.

Soybean Meal
COT Change (52W) / C-24%, LS-15%, SS-47% /
If we look at the longer picture, than we can see that a real shift in the trend could come, if we reach a large cot extreme (Commercials net 0 or long / LS net 0 or short). We may still see a rebound in prices (as we did several time during this decline), but I don’t think that is would be a long lasting one.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

RBOB Gasoline
COT Change (52W) / C-34%, LS-43% /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-35%, LS-65%, SS-56% /
Since our last major extreme, prices are in a decline mode. This large change in positions may stop it for a short time, but I think the cot extreme signal is still in place. We can expect – judging from the last couple of cases – a relative extreme in the report, so if Commercials reach 50-60.000 contracts net short, prices may continue their rally.

Soybean Oil
COT Extreme / C & LS-All Time COT extreme /
We’ve got a very nice, All Time cot extreme signal in Soybean Oil, so we should expect prices to rally soon.

Copper
COT Extreme / C & LS-All Time COT extreme /
Although in the past few weeks, we did not see a reaction in prices to the cot extreme levels that we see in copper, looking at the history of the chart, we should be prepared that prices will increase soon.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here