Best Thread Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Nasdaq-100
COT Change (52W) / C – 44%, LS –39%, SS - 12% /
COT change signals – in my experience – were successful signals many times in indexes. The large change in Traders positions in this recent cot report could be again another good signal (bullish of course). The cot extreme of course is pointing in the other direction, so any bullish trades should be taken carefully.

Feeder Cattle
COT Extreme / C – 20, LS – 103, SS - 105 report COT extreme /
The cot extreme is becoming significant, we should start expecting a top soon… on the other hand, this extreme can grow further, volume and open interest scores are supporting the rise.

Wheat
COT Extreme / C - 67, LS – 67 report COT extreme /
Similarly to FC, the extreme is large, but there is no reason to think that prices can’t go further UP --> In the last 5 years, we have had two larger extremes that were capable of ending rallies. I would say that the bullish cot extreme from the end of last year (that started the recent rally) is still in place.

All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Japanese Yen
COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, LS –23%, SS - 25% /
Both major cot signals, the cot change in the recent report and the cot extreme a few months ago indicate higher prices for the future.

Feeder Cattle
COT Extreme / C – 103, LS – 104, SS - 107 report COT extreme /
While the extreme has grown larger since last week, volume and open interest scores are not that supportive anymore for the rise in prices. We are expecting a top soon…

Wheat
COT Extreme / C - 69, LS – 68 report COT extreme /
If last week’s decline continuous this week, then we may need to assume that we’ve reached a relative bearish cot extreme – similar to the one from the end of last year – which could push prices down, even below 550. Since we are approx. 25.000 contracts away from All Time extreme levels (both for LS and C), it’s not that easy to determine what the case is… is this a relative extreme (if so, prices will most probably fall), or the extreme will become larger in the next few weeks.

All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Nasdaq-100
COT Change (52W) / C – 23%, LS –38%, SS - 36% /
COT Extreme / SS – All Time COT extreme /
The cot change signal (in case of Commercials and Large Speculators only) is bullish, but on the other hand we’ve got the major cot extreme (became all time in SS just now), which is bearish. It’s pretty hard to tell now, whether prices will continue their decline or as they’ve done it many times during the last 5 years, bounce back upwards.

British Pound
COT Extreme / C – 163, LS – 164 report COT extreme /
I think we’ve got a great trading opportunity: The cot extreme signal is clear and visible, while trading wise we’ve reached an important resistance level, where we can easily construct a good risk/reward trade!

Rough Rice
COT Extreme / C - 101, LS – 130 report COT extreme /
On a shorter time frame (let’s say 2-3 years), we may be looking at the market as good shorting opportunity. If we take the time to have a look at a longer time horizon, we can see that actually Traders are far away from their bearish extremes. Of course in the near term, we may witness a bit of a drop in prices, but I don’t think we should expect any major and especially long lasting price falls.

All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

RBOB Gasoline
COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, LS –32% /
Both the cot change signal now and the level of cot extreme in the market suggest prices should fall. All Traders are getting pretty close to their all time cot extreme (C and LS are approx. 25.000 contracts away).

British Pound
COT Extreme / C – 350, LS – 164 report COT extreme /
The extreme has widened, prices were unable to drastically strengthen, so I think last week’s comments are still valid.

Feeder Cattle
COT Extreme / LS - 108, SS – 109 report COT extreme /
Looking at the charts it’s difficult to believe that prices can go any higher, but if we examine the cot data, we can find that there were larger extremes in the past, we have not reached all time cot extreme levels yet! I’m not saying that prices will definitely go much higher, the picture is pretty obvious, but there’s still space left for all major participants to reach their greatest extremes.

All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Soybeans
COT Change (52W) / C – 19%, LS –17% /
The cot change signal is present, although not that large. It is bullish. We haven’t got a significant cot extreme, so there’s not too much supporting information from the cot data this week.

Russel-2000
COT Extreme / C – 94, LS – 94 report COT extreme /
Interestingly, we are starting to see more bullish cot extreme in indexes these days, even though prices are pretty high! This is supporting the continuation of the rally.

RBOB Gasoline
COT Extreme / C – 58, LS - 54, SS – 60 report COT extreme /
The cot extreme is becoming larger week by week. It is of course bearish, but it can become larger than now (just look at the 5 years chart and see for yourself).

All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

Although I could not find the newest commitment of traders review on cotbase.com, I’ll update the post anyway with some interesting markets:

Wheat
COT Change (52W) / C – 18%, LS –19% /
COT Extreme / C – 75, LS - 75 report COT extreme /
Both, the cot change signal and the cot extreme indicate that prices may not be able to continue (at least for too long) their current rise. The change in Traders positions was much larger than the average, so already in the near term, I expect a bit of a decline. In the medium term, prices may go up higher, but if you open a 5 years chart, you will see clearly that the extreme is becoming significant, thus we should be cautious with further buying.

Coffee
COT Extreme / C – 195, LS – 193 report COT extreme /
The cot extreme is once again very large in coffee, this time it is of course a bearish cot extreme signal. Will prices top out soon, I can’ tell, but there’s a chance that prices will further rise. If you look at what happened back in 2010 when the cot extreme reached such levels, you can see that price reaction came only months afterwards.

Soybeans
COT Extreme / SS – 200 report COT extreme /
Interestingly, there’s not too much to talk about if we analyze only Commercials and Large Specs activity… but if we take the time to have a look at the smaller players of the market, we will see that they ARE pretty extreme in the market, they are VERY bearish… and we know what that means --> bullish signal.

All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

S&P-500
COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, LS –17% /
It looks like the rally can continue… The bullish cot change signals accompanied by no real bearish cot extremes paint the picture bullish in indexes.

RBOB Gasoline
COT Change (52W) / C – 22%, LS –25% /
The bullish cot change signal we have in Gasoline may be able to take prices a bit higher in the short term, but if we look at the cot extreme situation, you will see that the chances of further declining prices (after the last two weeks) are higher.

Wheat
COT Extreme / C – 76, LS - 76 report COT extreme /
The cot extreme is getting larger and larger week by week. I do not think that the rally can continue for too long anymore, I’m expecting prices to reach a top soon.

All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Euro
COT Change (52W) / C – 20%, LS –22% /
The last major cot extreme that we has in Euro was the bullish all time cot extreme back in 2012. I believe that it is still in effect and prices are more likely to continue their rise for now. The cot change signal also signals rising prices.

Dow Jones-30
COT Change (52W) / C – 19%, LS – 27%, SS – 22% /
COT Index (3yr.) / C – 75%, LS – 40%, SS – 0% /
It is pretty interesting to see such a cot report at these price levels: we are closer to bullish cot extreme levels than bearish levels!! Ok, the cot change signal is bearish this week, but we know that if it will affect prices, only in the near term. The general picture, at least the one that is painted by the cot report, suggests that prices can rally even further!

Wheat
COT Extreme / LS - 77 report COT extreme /
It seems that my feeling last week was good: we may have reached a top in Wheat. The cot extreme is large enough already, so the chances are a bit larger for declining prices.

All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

 

[Final1001]

Is there COT for the FTSE 100??

Thanks

 

[Dunstan]

Is there COT for the FTSE 100??

Thanks

I don't think there is... (or at least, I don't know about it)
I know it's not that precise, but if you consider the correlation between indexes, you can examine the cot data on other markets? (Nasdaq, S&P etc...)

All the best,
Dunstan

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

S&P-500
COT Change (52W) / C – 32%, LS –38% /
The cot change IS large (bullish cot signal) and we have no bearish cot extreme, on the contrary, in some of the indexes, we are seeing more of a bullish extreme! Conclusion: although cot analysis may not be the most effective in indexes, analyzing the report, I think the rally is not over.

Japanese Yen
COT Change (52W) / C – 18%, LS – 12%, SS – 35% /
The 18% in Commercials and the 12% in Large Specs (changes) wouldn’t be in my opinion something to talk about, but the 35% in Small Specs is a significant change. It is of course a bearish cot signal, so I’m expecting a bit of a decline in the near term. The cot data on the wider time horizon says that prices can continue their rise, at least the last major cot extreme signal was bullish (at the end of last year). It is still in place, until prices go below the last bottom, which would result in a widening cot extreme.

Platinum
COT Extreme / C – 64, LS - 64 report COT extreme /
The bearish extreme is widening, while prices are rallying. I think there is still some time left, before we reach the next top, and it would be nice to see small speculators reaching an extreme also (above 6000 contracts net long).

All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

 

[Npard23]

Thanks for the updates.

 

[Dunstan]

Hi,

Volume and Open Interest Analysis --> here you can have a look at it!
The image attached should also help you understand how it works.

All the best,
Dunstan

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Dow Jones-30
COT Change (52W) / C – 22%, LS –22% /
The larger than average cot change may cause a little decline, but the I’d say it is the extreme that causes me to think: the rally isn’t over yet!

Mexican Peso
COT Extreme / C – 51, LS - 51 report COT extreme /
The bullish cot extreme in the beginning of this year has stopped the decline in prices. There is plenty of space for Traders to build up larger positions --> the rally should continue.

Euro
COT Extreme / C – 44, LS - 43 report COT extreme /
Until we reach a significant bearish cot extreme I would say that prices can go higher. I would expect the trend to change when LS reach 100.000 contracts (or above) net long, C reach 100.000 contracts net short (or below) net short.

All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Japanese Yen
COT Change (52W) / C – 23%, LS – 17%, SS - 37 /
The larger change suggests that prices may rally in the next few days and since the last major cot extreme is also a bullish signal, the longer term picture also looks brighter for the Japanese yen.

Silver
COT Extreme / C – 43, LS - 581 report COT extreme /
Large Speculators have reached an extreme that we haven’t seen since 2003! It is an unquestionable bullish signal and luckily at a level where the Risk/Reward of the trade seems pretty decent!

Australian Dollar
COT Extreme / C – 56, LS - 56 report COT extreme /
We may talk about a relative bearish cot extreme, not more… of course as the last example shows, such extremes may also influence prices, but looking at the chart, there is no question that there could be much greater extremes ahead of us.

All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Rough Rice
COT Change (52W) / C – 23%, LS – 26% /
COT Index (3 yr.) / C – 77%, LS – 37%, SS – 2% /
We had a pretty large change in Commercials and also in Large Speculators positions (looking at the last one year history, the change size was in the top 10%). It seems as if the signal came a bit late, since last week Thursday and Friday prices have rallied. Since the cot extreme situation is still bullish, I’d say that the chances of further rallying prices is larger.

Australian Dollar
COT Extreme / C – 59, LS – 57, SS - 59 report COT extreme /
Not much change since last week: relatively we may talk about an extreme, but there is still reasonable space left for Traders to become even more extreme about the market. The cot report does not really give us an edge this time.

Soybeans
COT Extreme / C – 43, LS – 42, SS - 217 report COT extreme /
The extreme is becoming really significant in soybeans (bullish picture). Commercials and Large Speculators have still got room for further positions, but in case of Small Speculators, they have reached All Time (close to it) extreme levels. I think prices can still decline for a while, but I’d be surprised if this decline continued for many weeks…

All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

USD Index
COT Change (52W) / C – 48%, LS – 51% /
The change in USD Index was HUGE (!), but not unseen… Large Speculators are long again (above 20.000 contracts net long), but the signal is still a bearish one. The last major cot extreme was a few months ago and it was a bullish signal. I don’t believe that in the medium/long term we need to expect any serious price declines.

Crude Oil
COT Extreme / C,LS – All Time COT extreme /
The All Time extreme we have in Crude Oil now suggests that prices will not be able to rally further for too long… of course the all time extreme can be in the market for a few weeks or even months before any real change in the trend.

British Pound
COT Extreme / C – 359, LS – 340 report COT extreme /
The cot extreme in GBP is considerable and I’m expecting prices to reach a top soon.

All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Dow Jones-30
COT Change (52W) / C – 31%, LS – 28%, SS – 31% /
Let’s see, what do we have here… Cot extreme: we had a bullish cot extreme in the last couple of weeks, so rising prices is not surprising. The change in Traders positions this week was larger than average and a bearish signal, so we may consider a cautious trade downwards.

Orange Juice
COT Change (52W) / C – 22%, LS – 27% /
Looking at the chart it seems that cot changes were pretty effective in Orange Juice in the past years… The bullish cot change signal seems to be a good signal that we can act on.

British Pound
COT Extreme / C – 361, LS – 342 report COT extreme /
Prices have not yet reached their top, but as they go higher and higher, the cot extreme is becoming larger too… We may need to be a bit more patient, but I’m pretty confident that eventually prices will react to this large cot signal.

All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Heating Oil
COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, LS – 22%, SS – 30% /
Having no extreme in the market, it is only the cot change signal that we can act on. The change in Traders positions was significant, much larger than usual. It is a bullish signal that may influence prices in the near future. Analyzing the effectiveness of cot change signals in heating oil, we can come to the conclusion that the signals are pretty effective.

Platinum
COT Extreme / C – 71 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
There is an unquestionably large cot extreme in the market (LS have never been so optimistic about the market as they are today). It would be nicer if SS were as extreme, but never the less, it is still something to talk about! Ohh, if anyone is unsure, we are talking about a bearish cot signal here As always, my warning: all time cot extremes can be present in a market for even months before price reaction, so be careful, pleeeease!

Soybeans
COT Extreme / C – 405, LS – 225 report, SS – All Time COT extreme /
What a beautiful picture we have in Soybeans!! All major participants of the market hold extremely large net positions… (bullish cot extreme signal) If you look at the charts for all soybeans market, you’ll see how well they react to cot extreme signals, so I’m personally really excited now!

All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

RBOB Gasoline
COT Change (52W) / C – 28%, LS – 28%, SS – 22% /
The change in Traders positions was significant, we can talk about a cot change signal. It is bullish and looking at the last one year, we can see that in the majority of cases, these signals could effectively be used.

Soybeans
COT Extreme / C – 429, LS – 226 report, SS – All Time COT extreme /
The cot extreme is becoming larger and larger. It is of course extremely difficult to tell, when the decline will end, but it is pretty clear that stresses in this market will soon burst and eventually create a bottom.

Silver
COT Extreme / C – 196, LS – 198 report COT extreme /
Not too long ago we were talking about a bullish cot extreme, but as you can see, things can change pretty fast in the market  we are now seeing a bearish extreme. This is a warning for those of you, who took the bullish signal earlier and built up a long position.

All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts