not-ouch, you could try and be a bit more friendly with your opinions or even stick them in your blog.
Evening trading US shares
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not-ouch, you could try and be a bit more friendly with your opinions or even stick them in your blog.
All the big players are still in the pit. There are some big locals and some big paper. And as long as options will be actively traded in the pit, there will be futures pits.
You should tell me how a local can make a 5 point push in the pit, and the mini just follows as the offer steps down in the pit. You can say there's not that much volume in the pit anymore, but if I hear merrill lynch buying, we most likely go up! And there's no way I can get that info from a chart. I don't have time to analyse the volume in ES. I like to hear what's happening, so I don't have to look at it! And for me, it works perfectly.
I quote you: April's ES volume was 20,398,744 compared to 614,552.
ES volume compared to pit volume. If you wanna compare it correctly you should show mini x mini or pit x pit and not mini x pit, cuz than it really looks like the thing is dead. But it's far from dead!
614,522 pit contracts are 3,072,610 minis. The pit has 300 traders/brokers and the mini has thousands! As long as there's sufficient paper activity in the pit, I will keep listening to it!
-Dave
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I'm glad it works for you but here's my experience with pit noise vs volume analysis on ES and YM:
First time you hear a call "Merrill comes in a buyer" and the price goes up you think "Wow! I've got an edge" but then you realise Merrill and Goldman are trading on behalf of clients so could be buying and selling on the same day. Sometimes Merrill buys and the price goes up and you think "Wow!" but then when Merrill buys and price goes down you ignore it. You see what you want to see. The same is true of "One of my top ten locals is trying to push this thing lower". Sure, locals can trigger a few stops over lunchtime but they don't have the clout to make a longer term difference.
Compare this to putting volume on a 5 minute ES chart. It doesn't take much analysis. A reversal always follows a volume spike. You can see exactly how many contracts have traded at a particular time or a particular price level. If you want to microtrade you can look at time and sales and see the big 500 or 1000 contract orders coming through. Merrill and Goldman may be active in the pit but they and other investment banks are even more active in the electronic contracts.
First time you hear a call "Merrill comes in a buyer" and the price goes up you think "Wow! I've got an edge" but then you realise Merrill and Goldman are trading on behalf of clients so could be buying and selling on the same day. Sometimes Merrill buys and the price goes up and you think "Wow!" but then when Merrill buys and price goes down you ignore it. You see what you want to see. The same is true of "One of my top ten locals is trying to push this thing lower". Sure, locals can trigger a few stops over lunchtime but they don't have the clout to make a longer term difference.
Compare this to putting volume on a 5 minute ES chart. It doesn't take much analysis. A reversal always follows a volume spike. You can see exactly how many contracts have traded at a particular time or a particular price level. If you want to microtrade you can look at time and sales and see the big 500 or 1000 contract orders coming through. Merrill and Goldman may be active in the pit but they and other investment banks are even more active in the electronic contracts.
I don't know if you've ever heard a squawkbox. Of course when merrill or goldman buys it can go down, but that all depends on what the locals do. Let's say we've gone up 3 points, locals are long, merrill and goldman come in to buy, locals sell to them. The move is done most likely, yes! There are a few locals that trade in the pit, but also do HUGE size in the mini. So a few of them sure can move the market!
You really think I don't know Merrill, Goldman, Bear, Deutsche, Chicorp, Morgan, MAN etc. trade mostly on behalve of clients. Come on, man.
This thing works for me, and there's no one in the world that's gonna tell me that what I'm doing doesn't work, because as long as it's profitable for me, I'll keep using it!
As I already told you, I don't have time to analyse ES and YM charts, I'd rather have the pit squawk on the background. Sometimes ES leads and sometimes pit leads.
-Dave
I suppose it depends what timeframe you trade. I take it you look to scalp a few ticks intraday. For a swing or position trader it's worthless.
As for which one leads the other, I think it's too heavily arbitraged by guys in the pit with PDAs for someone sitting at home listening to a squawk to take advantage of.
As for which one leads the other, I think it's too heavily arbitraged by guys in the pit with PDAs for someone sitting at home listening to a squawk to take advantage of.
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Once again, I trade stocks, not futures. I'm not scalping futures. I'm trading stocks. I'll be in position from 1 minute up to hours!
Yes, the pit and mini is of course arbitraged. But apparantly you don't have any idea how the S&Ps work. They don't use PDA's in the pit for arbitrage. They use headsets. And only the smaller locals in the middle of the pit, with the least view, arbitrate the mini and the pit. Then you have a bunch of locals that trade spreads! And then you have a bunch of locals that trade outright, usually the big locals!
-Dave
PitBull
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Just seen your message. I reckon the $4.95 is per side so you will be paying $9.90 for each 100 share lot trade and as you're just starting out, it will be very tough for you to be net each day. However, if you can forget about the commissions and see it as a sunk cost just to get the practice in then great, just monitor your gross Pnl daily and if after a while you have been gross +ve everyday then consider moving over to proper US broker like IB, TS, DirectAccessElite etc. Trading 500 shares straight off the bat for real will have you trading scared and you will be wiped out in no time.
Good luck
PB
Good luck
PB
temporarilylight
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thanks for responding pitbull.
notouch,
how can i know the S&P comes down after the number. There we're buyers on the number. Paper has been selling the whole way up. It was locals that bid it up. One local, the biggest one, was pushing it lower again, he just triggered a bunch of paper sellers that sold it down 3 points. I wanted to buy a stock that was gonna break out. Guess what, I didn't buy it, because the index started ticking down and the stock didn't break out! He's still pushing!
how can i know the S&P comes down after the number. There we're buyers on the number. Paper has been selling the whole way up. It was locals that bid it up. One local, the biggest one, was pushing it lower again, he just triggered a bunch of paper sellers that sold it down 3 points. I wanted to buy a stock that was gonna break out. Guess what, I didn't buy it, because the index started ticking down and the stock didn't break out! He's still pushing!
temporarilylight
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Anyone had any good ones today? My best demo trade today has been a GILD long for 30cents. Haven't been able to find much today...
Hi, there was a nice 2 dollar trade on MA. EYE had a nice move when it opened! STP made an 80 cent move lower! CDWC made a big move too, 2,5 bucks lower after the open! SPG AVB
PitBull
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Gappers were good today, not many opps but with patience they were there, ASN from 60.30 to 61, CDWC 83.58 to 82.18, INSP 23.35 to 23.87. These were on 1min charts.
Took a long on AAPL this pm just over 113 for 40cents as it touched yesterdays resistance or opening high, i.e. resistance becomes support. ZUMZ was a good short at yesterdays low at 38 but I missed it.
Regards
PB
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temporarilylight
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Not letting me upload an attatchment for some reason.
Pretend net profit for the day = $135 for the day trading 200share lots with 9 trades....Hoping for better tomorrow.
Pretend net profit for the day = $135 for the day trading 200share lots with 9 trades....Hoping for better tomorrow.
Grey1
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This is me to day IB does not up date the main screen for some reason and all full of ZERO's ,, Hmmmmmm
Up over a grand for the day ,, I was going to short EXPE but by error shorted EXPD and this cost me few $$ as seen , other wise i would have done better ( USU was an over night trade which was 3% in postive pre market and was up 30C the first 10 min I think before it sank )
Grey1
Not a diffcult day at all ..
Up over a grand for the day ,, I was going to short EXPE but by error shorted EXPD and this cost me few $$ as seen , other wise i would have done better ( USU was an over night trade which was 3% in postive pre market and was up 30C the first 10 min I think before it sank )
Grey1
Not a diffcult day at all ..
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charliechan
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lol.
we all do it from time to time dont we!
its the kind of thing that is difficult to factor in, which makes our business more of an art than science imho
combotrader
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Does anyone use Trade-Ideas for scanning ? Its cheaper than Briefing.com but better than Telecharts, acc to some. Seems to have useful features.
Cheers
Combo.
Cheers
Combo.temporarilylight
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