A Trading Fairy Tale...
"Once upon a time there was an enchanted land called Marketland where a fascinating game called 'The Market was played most days. And the thing about this game was that it would go up or down every day and the players would make bets about the outcome -- very simple game.
But there were complications, which had to do with the fact that all the players in Marketland had opinions about which way the market would go.
And not only opinions: The players had systems, methods, evidence and analysis to back up their opinions. They had Dactyl numbers and Pdontiff waves, Xandom lines and Zigdar harmonics. They had the legacies of the old masters, Oerbot and Caljen. They had inventories and earnings, money-flow studies, astrology charts and the benefits of 4th-order spectrum analysis, all of which was extremely fascinating. Yes indeed, the players had many marvelous things.
The problem, though, was that sometimes the methods called for the markets to go one way and it would go the other way. This never failed to astonish everyone concerned, and there were many long discussions about how or why the market could be so perverse. However, it was usually agreed that this had just been a temporary aberration by the market and that the methods and analyses were as good as ever.
But one afternoon something happened to one of the players, a man named Mr. Beright. And he was never the same again. Mr. Beright had made a detailed study of Azerhof numbers, becoming one of Marketland's recognized experts on the subject. And the Azerhof numbers were now quite plainly stating that the market needed to go up, so Mr. Beright had taken a solid long position.
Unfortunately, quite soon after Mr. Beright had gone massively long, the market started down. This did not worry Mr. Beright excessively, since he realized the market had to go up. But the market (strange creature that it is) wouldn't pay any attention. It kept going down. And down. And down. And Mr. Beright (understandably, since we've all lived through these moments) got quite anxious and depressed. But he knew it would all get better very soon, just as soon as the market turned around and went the way it was supposed to go.
Now all good fairy tales have children in them and this one is no exception. Mr. Beright, it turns out, had a beautiful five year-old-daughter named Herenow, and just as he was contemplating his sad fate, Herenow walked into the room. Sensing that something was wrong, she asked, "what is the matter daddy?"
"Oh nothing, darling, you wouldn't understand. It's just that the market is supposed to go up and it hasn't yet."
"Is this the market daddy? This line on the screen here?"
"Yes." Little Herenow went over and peered intently at the jagged line on the screen. And the she said:
"Well daddy, I don't know anything about the market. But it certainly seems to be going down."
Well dear, that's why you don't understand. You see, the Azerhof numbers say that absolutely, positively the market has to go up here."
"I know, daddy, but right now it seems to be going down."
"Not only that Herenow, but the Melinxar frequencies state unequivocally that the market has got to go up here."
"I know, daddy, but right now it seems to be going down."
"You don't understand, darling. When the Azerhof numbers and the Melinxar frequencies agree, the market has got to go in that direction."
Little Herenow looked puzzled. She went over and peered at the screen once more.
"I don't understand all those things you're talking about, daddy, and I don't understand the market, but right now it seems to be going down. Doesn't it?
Mr. Beright paused and looked carefully at his five year-old daughter. "Would you say that again, Herenow?"
"Just that right now, daddy, the market seems to be going down. That's all. Did I say something wrong?"
"No dear...not at all."
And at that precise moment something snapped in Mr. Beright. All those years of studying Azerhof numbers and Melinxar frequencies and everything else swam in front of his eyes. Then he looked at his little daughter again, picked up the phone and sold out his long position. And what's more, he went very, very short.
Now Mr. Beright is a changed man. Because all that time that he used to spend studying Azerhof numbers and so on he now spends playing golf and enjoying his family. And his friends think he has become very strange, because he has no interest in all those fascinating systems and methods and indicators and statistics about the markets anymore.
But Mr. Beright doesn't care because he's making money. Lots and lots of it."
--From the book "The Adam theory of markets?What matters is profit", by J. Wells Wilder, Chapter one.
