a funny thing happened on the way to the close on Friday
between 2:04:00 and 2:04:20 the DX $ contract fell from 77.60 to 74.60
300 pips in 20 seconds, 394 contracts traded
during the remainder of the session the DX climbed back up to close at 77.25
this DX mini 'flash crash' didn't appear to cause any other currency to react, no
spikes appear on any of the other futures or fx charts
the week before last I was going to but didn't post a new thread about the $ :
" The US Dollar
2 scenarios in mind:
1: since bottoming in March 2008, the $ has been forming waves 1-ABC2 of a new
bull market
if this C leg is a horizontal ABC W 2 , then the price should hold around the 74 area
time target - year end
2: the 08-Current formation is a Reversal formation, an AB/inverted H&S which will
see the price drop to or near to the 70 area; time target - March 2011
this obviously means that other currencies will go higher/lower - depending if you're
trading futures or fx - for as long as the $ continues to decline, with an expectation
of there being a $ retracement correction along the way - to 70
charts: historical Monthly . Daily . Monthly "
last week the euro's low hit the median line of the major secs and took off up, and
while the Tue LC closed a smidgen under a 38.2 fibo, the formation since Thur Oct
7 looks more like a H&S than anything else, meaning Downside to come, however
could we see a run-up to the 1.4150 area again ?
I have to say I'm guessing what will go on since I'm not getting much info from the
current wave formations in any timeframe
a possibility there's an abc in progress, Tues was a, b now with the completion
of a reversal formation after a few hours ? then down to around 1.3590 something
the timeline is we could go to Friday to hit the 50% fibo level and maybe form a
base between then and a LL until Tues Nov 3 - how much info is available about the
Mid Term results and when is it available ? a heavy week - MT, FOMC, BoE, ECB,
NFP
projection fibos I have on the D $ charts as well as other fibos have all worked and
the 74.60 hit targets precisely, but, a couple of months earlier than I'd expected
I've no idea why the $ went down as it did but it has hit Significant fibo levels, and
in theory, the $'s new bull market has begun
charts: DX 10sec . $ historical Monthly . $ Daily x 2 . $ Monthly . eurusd D
between 2:04:00 and 2:04:20 the DX $ contract fell from 77.60 to 74.60
300 pips in 20 seconds, 394 contracts traded
during the remainder of the session the DX climbed back up to close at 77.25
this DX mini 'flash crash' didn't appear to cause any other currency to react, no
spikes appear on any of the other futures or fx charts
the week before last I was going to but didn't post a new thread about the $ :
" The US Dollar
2 scenarios in mind:
1: since bottoming in March 2008, the $ has been forming waves 1-ABC2 of a new
bull market
if this C leg is a horizontal ABC W 2 , then the price should hold around the 74 area
time target - year end
2: the 08-Current formation is a Reversal formation, an AB/inverted H&S which will
see the price drop to or near to the 70 area; time target - March 2011
this obviously means that other currencies will go higher/lower - depending if you're
trading futures or fx - for as long as the $ continues to decline, with an expectation
of there being a $ retracement correction along the way - to 70
charts: historical Monthly . Daily . Monthly "
last week the euro's low hit the median line of the major secs and took off up, and
while the Tue LC closed a smidgen under a 38.2 fibo, the formation since Thur Oct
7 looks more like a H&S than anything else, meaning Downside to come, however
could we see a run-up to the 1.4150 area again ?
I have to say I'm guessing what will go on since I'm not getting much info from the
current wave formations in any timeframe
a possibility there's an abc in progress, Tues was a, b now with the completion
of a reversal formation after a few hours ? then down to around 1.3590 something
the timeline is we could go to Friday to hit the 50% fibo level and maybe form a
base between then and a LL until Tues Nov 3 - how much info is available about the
Mid Term results and when is it available ? a heavy week - MT, FOMC, BoE, ECB,
NFP
projection fibos I have on the D $ charts as well as other fibos have all worked and
the 74.60 hit targets precisely, but, a couple of months earlier than I'd expected
I've no idea why the $ went down as it did but it has hit Significant fibo levels, and
in theory, the $'s new bull market has begun
charts: DX 10sec . $ historical Monthly . $ Daily x 2 . $ Monthly . eurusd D