euro.

[Atilla]

The next Fed meeting and brief will be very interesting...

US interest rate direction

It looks like growth and inflation all over the world is peaking at target levels and interest rates likely to rise in Asia, Europe and now the US.

This would explain the small bounce in the NIK after the recent falls based on Yen weakness.

It's a 50/50 call as to whether the FED or ECB raises rates first. Might be best to stay on baseline until some specific news hints...

 

[jacinto]

big picture TA on euro

1) monthly chart appears to be forming a lower high, lower top however you want to call it.
2) apparent downtrending pitchofrk still forming, not confirmed yet
3) January candle-bar, quite bearish.
4) Expect another push to test 3000 as resistance this week, and then a significant fall (for the euro that is :cheesy

The fundamentals:
1) Euro interest rate cycle extremely priced in already. dont care when. only surprise rate increase (timing or level) would make me rethink the scenario
2) No evidence of lesser inflationary pressures in the US
3) Risk of Non productivity related wage growth
4) Lower oil prices feeding "positively" through the economy, generating a "false" wealth effect, which in turn brings us to point 3 above

If i were a bookie, my odds would be 3-1 the buck wins.

J

The Euro is like buying a cash cow when the stock market goes down :cheesy:

 

[andycan]

big picture TA on euro

1) monthly chart appears to be forming a lower high, lower top however you want to call it.
2) apparent downtrending pitchofrk still forming, not confirmed yet
3) January candle-bar, quite bearish.
4) Expect another push to test 3000 as resistance this week, and then a significant fall (for the euro that is :cheesy

The fundamentals:
1) Euro interest rate cycle extremely priced in already. dont care when. only surprise rate increase (timing or level) would make me rethink the scenario
2) No evidence of lesser inflationary pressures in the US
3) Risk of Non productivity related wage growth
4) Lower oil prices feeding "positively" through the economy, generating a "false" wealth effect, which in turn brings us to point 3 above

If i were a bookie, my odds would be 3-1 the buck wins.

J

The Euro is like buying a cash cow when the stock market goes down :cheesy:

perfectly put!!
also consider addition membership to the 'European community' these countries are not at the same level as current members the slack has to be taken!
then there is the real enviroment, go to most european countries and ask how things are going
and one of the things they will all tell you is cost of living as gone up, property prices through the roof but wages barely increased
something is going to give.

 

[neil]

perfectly put!!
also consider addition membership to the 'European community' these countries are not at the same level as current members the slack has to be taken!
then there is the real enviroment, go to most european countries and ask how things are going
and one of the things they will all tell you is cost of living as gone up, property prices through the roof but wages barely increasedsomething is going to give.

Bit like the UK then

 

[andycan]

Bit like the UK then

yes a bit like here,
unfortunately the economic change is a result of the change in currency.
in spain a 100 peseta coin would have bought you an item, at the transition the item was available 1 euro
if memory serves me right 1 euro was equvalent to 170 pesetas or there abouts
overnight everything went up except wages they were virtually calculated, like for like

 

[Atilla]

big picture TA on euro

1) monthly chart appears to be forming a lower high, lower top however you want to call it.
2) apparent downtrending pitchofrk still forming, not confirmed yet
3) January candle-bar, quite bearish.
4) Expect another push to test 3000 as resistance this week, and then a significant fall (for the euro that is :cheesy

The fundamentals:
1) Euro interest rate cycle extremely priced in already. dont care when. only surprise rate increase (timing or level) would make me rethink the scenario
2) No evidence of lesser inflationary pressures in the US
3) Risk of Non productivity related wage growth
4) Lower oil prices feeding "positively" through the economy, generating a "false" wealth effect, which in turn brings us to point 3 above

If i were a bookie, my odds would be 3-1 the buck wins.

J

The Euro is like buying a cash cow when the stock market goes down :cheesy:

Really excellent analysis and I I've decided to buckle under influence and opinions expressed and exited with reasonable gains only to see it go beyond 1.2950. Bird in the hand is worth two in the bush so I'm more smiles than greed.

I'll have to re-appraise the fundamentals and wait for uncle Ben to express opinion.

After the $ the Euro is the most traded currency and so big brother popullarity is there. I'm still feel 1.2985 is a very strong resistance level that will not be broken easily.

 

[jacinto]

Really excellent analysis and I I've decided to buckle under influence and opinions expressed and exited with reasonable gains only to see it go beyond 1.2950. Bird in the hand is worth two in the bush so I'm more smiles than greed.

I'll have to re-appraise the fundamentals and wait for uncle Ben to express opinion.

After the $ the Euro is the most traded currency and so big brother popullarity is there. I'm still feel 1.2985 is a very strong resistance level that will not be broken easily.

thank you both.

atilla, dont drop your trade because of what i say.

j

 

[Atilla]

thank you both.

atilla, dont drop your trade because of what i say.

j

No not at all. It was a combination of reading Forex news, the upcoming Fed speak, $ strength and my own TA and various speakers comments.

I did note you said it could retrace to 1.3000.

I thought best to let news come out first before moving in again. Friday US stats rocked my confidence on the Euro with potential interest rate hike. I'm still 50/50. Motto of life - if in doubt don't do it...

I'll watch for news and weakness before moving in again one way or another...