EUR/USD - Why There is no Secret or Mystery to Trading

PieterSteidelmayer said:
Missed a point. Given this pair has shown a rage of a little over 40 pips today so far, how likely its it that even if it did break, it would reach even the first target which is further away than the entire current day's range?

Again, I suspect you would give the wrong answer.

I don't say this to underline my haughty arrogance, but to emphasize the risk of assuming you can take a specific plan and bend it to any instrument, any day without understanding the larger context in which that instrument exists.
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Understood. I'd like to think that my instinct would say it's unlikely given the lack of action during the London session. Point taken though, this is a good example of when sticking to a rigid plan might not be such a great idea.

Today's EUR/USD move from LL-1 to LL-2 i thought was realistic. I closed 80% of the position at LL-2, closing the remaining 20% shortly after when price showed little sign of momentum.
 
My purpose in starting this thread was to show there is neither mystery in nor any secret of trading – anything. I took an asset class I don’t trade, but one which appears to be one of the more popular on this site and on a purely technical basis provided levels of support and resistance for eur/usd and a basic trading plan for trading it against those levels on Monday of this week. I have subsequently provided levels for a few other days and stressed that they can only be used within the context of the wider universe in which all financial instruments reside. When the levels are broken with appropriate momentum and with a realistic chance of hitting the first target then you have as close to a sure shot as you’re ever going to get from the retail side.

The information relating to how the levels provided are constructed is not mine to give, but as splitlink has pointed out the levels aren’t too far off others available from the internet – perhaps he will divulge his source for those interested - tb00075 also hinted at recognition of how they are devised and I suspect a little further research on his part will yield answers – Tom, it is based purely on the previous day’s trading action.

So hopefully having demonstrated the fact that this CAN be done it makes it that much easier for others to find the way. It also puts to bed those smoke & mirrors merchants who would beguile you with their own brand of arcane, esoteric and occult mumbo-jumbo, one of whom it would appear has recently been outed as a blatant fraud. Don’t get me wrong, we love this crowd; as our clients we refer to them as the “big tippers”.

A clear shot at a high certainty, virtually zero-risk run of any size, providing it is many factors larger than your spread is worth a dozen 5 pip quickies.
 
I'm not convinced, yet, I'm afraid. In fact, I've been trading the EU today with my usual signals plus the pivots on the chart. If I had not been trading in my usual way, I would not have caught this morning's rise because price was below the pivot for most of the time making buying inadvisable.

I think that this is a matter of horses for courses and of personal choice.
 
Splitlink said:
I'm not convinced, yet, I'm afraid. In fact, I've been trading the EU today with my usual signals plus the pivots on the chart. If I had not been trading in my usual way, I would not have caught this morning's rise because price was below the pivot for most of the time making buying inadvisable.

I think that this is a matter of horses for courses and of personal choice.
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I haven't provided any levels today.
 
Good Afternoon Pieter,

May I ask you a question please, as I have asked Sir Jizzchance on his thread, but he has not replied as of yet.

Now on his thread he has drawn a very elaborate box that to all intents and purposes looks very impressive, and of such perfect proportions, that it's making me wonder that his knowledge is so vast that he can pick up on such poetic symmetry of the markets, thus fitting it into his box, but TBH I cannot for the life of me make any head nor tail of it, may I ask you, since you sound like you're someone who has a clue about what you're talking about, so what do you make of this box he has drawn, and is that the secret mystery that the experts know, yet lowly traders don't.

I look forward to your response.

Best
John.
 
PieterSteidelmayer said:
I haven't provided any levels today.
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That is another thing, Pieter, I cannot depend on you supplying your data every day. Posters come and go on this site with surprising speed, sometimes. I have to depend on my own sources for this to work for me. It is not rocket science to work the pivot out for oneself. The resistance and support levels are another matter and, I suspect, that is why a lot of data sources differ.

Anyway, this is my view and, I'm sure that you have many followers who will disagree.

Friends as always and Good trading.
 
Mr Fox said:
Good Afternoon Pieter,

May I ask you a question please, as I have asked Sir Jizzchance on his thread, but he has not replied as of yet.

Now on his thread he has drawn a very elaborate box that to all intents and purposes looks very impressive, and of such perfect proportions, that it's making me wonder that his knowledge is so vast that he can pick up on such poetic symmetry of the markets, thus fitting it into his box, but TBH I cannot for the life of me make any head nor tail of it, may I ask you, since you sound like you're someone who has a clue about what you're talking about, so what do you make of this box he has drawn, and is that the secret mystery that the experts know, yet lowly traders don't.

I look forward to your response.

Best
John.
Click to expand...
Yes. It's a box kite and it needs a lot of hot air to keep it up.
 
Splitlink said:
That is another thing, Pieter, I cannot depend on you supplying your data every day. Posters come and go on this site with surprising speed, sometimes. I have to depend on my own sources for this to work for me. It is not rocket science to work the pivot out for oneself. The resistance and support levels are another matter and, I suspect, that is why a lot of data sources differ.

Anyway, this is my view and, I'm sure that you have many followers who will disagree.

Friends as always and Good trading.
Click to expand...
I really have no idea what you're talking about splitlink. It was never my intention to provide s/r levels (why do you keep calling them pivots?) on a daily basis. The purpose of the thread was to show that there was no mystery or secret to trading - just solid effort working out a structure within which to trade.
 
This seems to be stumbling around the 50% retrace of the high on the 24th and low of the 28th. The 8 day ema looks close to a cross of the 21 day. A close over 13788 (the 50% retracement) would be bullish do you think?
 
hereward the wake said:
This seems to be stumbling around the 50% retrace of the high on the 24th and low of the 28th. The 8 day ema looks close to a cross of the 21 day. A close over 13788 (the 50% retracement) would be bullish do you think?
Click to expand...

As I've said previously I don't trade spot forex retail and without knowing your timeframe (and therefore what bar closing over the level you suggest is your potential trigger) I can't address your question specifically, but certainly on an intraday basis today, it's bullish above 3754 and bearish below. UL-1 at 3785, but this was breached just before the NY open yesterday and it did nothing with it then, so I'd be looking for yesterday's high to get taken out, but with UL-2 at 3826 that's less than 20 pips on offer for the UL-2 even with high probability, so you'd need to be quick and go in tight to make it worth the risk.UL-3 is at 3867 which you could let a portion of your size ride on for.

Downside for the intraday hounds are: LL-1 at 3744, LL-2 at 3705 and LL-3 at 3664. With the key level being 3754 and the LL-1 short trigger at 3744 you can see there's a lot more mileage in the short side if it ever swings that way.
 
Got a couple for you for Wednesday April 2nd. See how they work out.

eur/aud
UL-3 5130
UL-2 5037
UL-1 4949
4928
LL-1 4855
LL-2 4764
LL-3 4672

usd/chf
UL-3 9874
UL-2 8856
UL-1 8838
8832
LL-1 8819
LL-2 8800
LL-3 8783

Had good levels for nzd/jpy too but that's just broken through LL-1 and heading for LL2 at 89.35 and possibly LL-3 at 89.16
 
PieterSteidelmayer said:
usd/chf just broken up through UL-1, It's got a bit of resistance at 8842 right where it is now, but if I were taking the trade, I would be right now. Stop below the key level.
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We want to see the UL-1 holding as support if the trade is correct. If it doesn't hold then we want to minimize losses. So stop up to just below UL-1.
 
Regardless of what the vendors of unbridled and unrealistic optimism tell you, as a spot forex trader on the retail side, trading intraday, you are more likely to get losing and scratch trades than winning ones. You need to manage both your expectations and the trade.
 
PieterSteidelmayer said:
For clarity, the usd/chf trade was a scratch trade.
Click to expand...

Although it has just hit the UL-2 target level there wasn't sufficient confidence in price action around the UL-1 entry level to justify leaving the stop at the initial key level as outlined in the boilerplate plan in post #2. In retrospect would it have been a good idea to so? Yes, of course, but I leave the retrospective flashes of brilliance to others.
 
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