ES Trading

[new_trader]

Trading Update

I may be back later this afternoon, if not, I will be watching the market without posting live commentary. Just remember this:- Everything, Yes, EVERYTHING is known in advance!

Using the principles and techniques I have written about in my journal I was confident enough in my market reading skills to expand my trading into other areas like commodities. I started with small positions (much more than 10p/point though!!) and took a longer term view to prove that my methodology is 100% robust regardless of time horizon. Although I didn’t record the trades here I thought I would give a brief summary.

-Palladium +44% -I regret selling
-Wheat +34% in approx 4 months
-Livestock (break even)
-Silver +67% Approx to date and still holding. Positions were opened with derivates and then rolled over into a physical ETF.
-Gold – Long term although most positions are in profit it is a long term accumulate.

This is all in addition to my longer term investment portfolio which in the last 12 months has outperformed the main indices. These successes have allowed me to have a much more relaxed approach to my trading and the necessary patience and discipline to trade only the most highly profitable and probable indications. I am only interested in being right, at the right time, and making as much money as I can when I am right. I am currently long US$140/point in a trade and hope to build a larger stake before it makes its move. My time horizon on this trade is 6-12 months which makes it more like an investment than a trade.

I continue to trade the ES contract short term as well

 

[new_trader]

Re: Trading Update

Using the principles and techniques I have written about in my journal I was confident enough in my market reading skills to expand my trading into other areas like commodities. I started with small positions (much more than 10p/point though!!) and took a longer term view to prove that my methodology is 100% robust regardless of time horizon. Although I didn’t record the trades here I thought I would give a brief summary.

-Palladium +100% -Doubled money in approx 6 months and I regret selling
-Wheat +66% in approx 4 months
-Livestock (break even)
-Silver +67% Approx to date and still holding. Positions were opened with derivates and then rolled over into a physical ETF.
-Gold – Long term although most positions are in profit it is a long term accumulate.

This is all in addition to my longer term investment portfolio which in the last 12 months has outperformed the main indices. These successes have allowed me to have a much more relaxed approach to my trading and the necessary patience and discipline to trade only the most highly profitable and probable indications. I am only interested in being right, at the right time, and making as much money as I can when I am right. I am currently long US$140/point in a trade and hope to build a larger stake before it makes its move. My time horizon on this trade is 6-12 months which makes it more like an investment than a trade.

I continue to trade the ES contract short term as well

Correction!

Wheat was only +34% and Palladium was only +44%. Looking at where they are today I realise that I had figured correctly and should have held onto those positions. The error in % originally quoted was as a result of how I recorded the trades at the time. Since I was 'testing' my methodology I closed the trades when they were in profit but kept the original target to see if I was right.

 

[new_trader]

Re: Trading Update

-Silver +67% Approx to date and still holding. Positions were opened with derivates and then rolled over into a physical ETF.

Hi-Ho Silver...squeeze them shorts!!

I like short shorts

 

[new_trader]

Re: Trading Update

Hi-Ho Silver...squeeze them shorts!!

I like short shorts

+0.7776 +2.43%
Today's Change

guzel guzel .........

 

[new_trader]

This is interesting...
http://seekingalpha.com/article/259...delivery-of-its-own-silver-shorts?source=feed

 

[new_trader]

Target hit! +100% on aggregate Silver position.

 

[new_trader]

Target hit! +100% on aggregate Silver position.

Details:

Position 1) [email protected], +157.48%
Position 2) [email protected], +115.84%
Position 3) [email protected], +86.27%
Position 4) [email protected], +61.41%
--------------------------------------
Aggregate 19.35, +100.36%

 

[new_trader]

Details:

Position 1) [email protected], +157.48%
Position 2) [email protected], +115.84%
Position 3) [email protected], +86.27%
Position 4) [email protected], +61.41%
--------------------------------------
Aggregate 19.35, +100.36%

I should mention that although my target has been hit I am keeping these positions open. I expect silver to break above its previous all time high of around $US48.70/oz when the Hunt brothers attempted to corner the market.

 

[new_trader]

Exited 50% of position: Zenergy Power Plc [ZEN:LSE]
Position opened : 25/03/2011 Long @ 14
50% Exited @ 18.25, +30%

Target for final 50% = 21
Stop @ 15

 

[new_trader]

Exited 50% of position: Zenergy Power Plc [ZEN:LSE]
Position opened : 25/03/2011 Long @ 14
50% Exited @ 18.25, +30%

Target for final 50% = 21
Stop @ 15

Stop hit @ 15, +7.1%

 

[new_trader]

I should mention that although my target has been hit I am keeping these positions open. I expect silver to break above its previous all time high of around $US48.70/oz when the Hunt brothers attempted to corner the market.

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - U.S. silver futures on Monday jumped more than 8 percent to just below $50 an ounce, its highest since 1980, buoyed by a weak dollar and strong physical demand in Asia.

Here's a brief history of silver:

April 25, 2011: Spot silver rose to $48.84 an ounce and U.S. silver futures to $49.82, highest since 1980.

Everything is known in advance.:cheesy:

 

[new_trader]

Exited 50% of position: Accsys Technologies PLC [AXS:LSE]
Position opened : 30/03/2011 Long @ 0.1575 EUR
50% Exited @ 0.1675, +6.3%

Target 0.25
Stop @ 16

 

[new_trader]

On rare occasions even I am worth quoting in my journal

My trading ritual: I put on my leather jacket and gloves, I put on my gargoyle sunglasses and I grab my .45 longslide with laser sighting. I play this tune and strike ‘The Terminator’ pose and observe the screen... coldly...silently...completely without emotion, ready to pull the trigger without hesitation. I am a methodical cyborg.

 

[new_trader]

Exited 50% of position: Accsys Technologies PLC [AXS:LSE]
Position opened : 30/03/2011 Long @ 0.1575 EUR
50% Exited @ 0.1675, +6.3%

Target 0.25
Stop @ 16

Stop hit @ 0.16

 

[new_trader]

Silver does 'something' and all the neo-silver "experts" crawl out of the woodwork....

 

[new_trader]

Silver does 'something' and all the neo-silver "experts" crawl out of the woodwork....

There is no doubt in my mind the oft-quoted statistic that 95% of traders lose money is absolutely true. It’s like watching a group of children playing with a new chemistry set...put some of this in...no, mix this...try some of that...what does this do...?

KABOOM!

 

[new_trader]

Looks like the infants have got bored of silver now that the "key jingling" has ceased ...Might be time to start buying again...

Current project: Natural Gas [Etfs Natural Gas NGAS:LSE]

 

[new_trader]

Looks like the infants have got bored of silver now that the "key jingling" has ceased ...Might be time to start buying again...
Current project: Natural Gas [Etfs Natural Gas NGAS:LSE]

It looks like my call to buy silver near the end of June was near the bottom. I added more silver to my current position a few days after this call and now it appears as if silver is starting to break out. If my figuring is correct it should break above US$45oz soon and when it does it will go all the way to US$50oz and possibly higher. If that happens then US$50oz will be the new $30oz.

 

[new_trader]

I notice someone has started a live ES calls thread. Good on him/her. Today isn't a day to trade for me, unless it starts acting right for me. But in any case, the trade to make would be a long around 1250.00 for a move into the low to mid 1250's...probably 1253 to 1255. Market currently @ 1250.00

Interesting to see that the market @1256.25 is almost precisely where it was exactly 12 months ago to the day. I am looking for a 2012 rally...!

This is a great lecture on Money.

"What is Money?" with Joseph T. Salerno -- Ron Paul Money Lecture Series, Pt 1/3 - YouTube

 

[new_trader]

IMO: The USA is in a great depression and all the weak economic data supports this, but the market has been propped up by the FED's cheap money or 'stimulus' which is now wearing off and also coming to an end. However, Osama Ben Bernanke will not let his Wall Street buddies down, nor will he allow the President to be embarrassed in front of his woman. This is the beauty of fiat money, it allows Politics to 'triumph' over economics...but only in the short run.

To answer the question, the downtrend in real terms will continue, but in nominal terms, the sky is the limit! In S&P500 terms, I would be mildly surprised if it broke below 1250, but by the year's end I think it will be closer to 1400. There is nothing I'm seeing (yet) which makes me think this market is being liquidated so I have been adding to my portfolio on these 'dips' but I am picking my stocks wisely and in a currency that is gaining strength against the $US and £UK.

If I have read the market correctly (and there is always a chance I haven't) I figure it will be higher by the end of the year. This doesn't mean it won't go down further first, but I think there will be more stimulus if it does, you can almost Bernank on it!

This was my forecast 6 months ago. Although the market rallied from the lows it fell short of the 1400 level I was anticipating. However, I think the rally will continue in 2012 but not because the US economy is improving... far from it. There will be the odd piece of ‘positive’ data here and there but they belie the fundamental problems that politicians have failed to correct and whose policies continue to undermine any real chance of recovery. This is US Presidential election year (Vote RON PAUL!!) so IMO there will be a herculean effort to fool the public into believing everything is O.K and the market will react accordingly. I’ve seen many people in this forum buy into the ‘positive’ NEWS so if allegedly intelligent operators can be so easily fooled by politicians then so can the uninformed public.

Ron Paul, the gold standard in politics and economics!

Ron Paul 2012 Official Campaign Website

This is the 2nd lecture on the basic principles of money...Lydia is a cute!

"What is Constitutional Money?" (some people in this forum need to watch this...especially anyone who thinks that a Central Bank having control of the money supply is a massive advantage)

The Coinage Act of 1792: http://www.constitution.org/uslaw/coinage1792.txt


"What is Constitutional Money?" with Edwin Vieira -- Ron Paul Money Lecture Series, Pt 2/3 - YouTube