Elliott Wave EUR/USD

[JahDave]

Here are two daily charts and 1 hourly chart for the Euro. The ichimoku chart shows that the Euro still has some more down potential into the 1.4000 - 1.3900 range, but after that it will probably go back up into the 1.4500 -1.4700 area. Also I am including a daily chart with volume under it. The volume for this last move down has been very low, so that means not much conviction here to the downside, and that bolsters my opinion of a move back up. Also the move down on the daily chart is in a 3 wave pattern and that is corrective instead of impulsive.........so in my opinion this is probably unfolding as a flat on the daily chart...........

 

[Doomberg]

World of pain for me, i changed my position to a larger one and put the stop at 14300

I would of seen it return to there but i was asleep so i got stopped out and it only reached 14306
And then continued on its way down -.- how frustrating, i should of left my position as it 1st was

 

[JahDave]

World of pain for me, i changed my position to a larger one and put the stop at 14300

I would of seen it return to there but i was asleep so i got stopped out and it only reached 14306
And then continued on its way down -.- how frustrating, i should of left my position as it 1st was

I am really sorry to hear that Doom. Are you still building your trading system??????? Once you understand the markets, (which I think you are doing well at that ) you should begin to build a trading system.............That will entail using what you want to signal a buy or sell, and you should use it on 3 different time frames before taking a trade............

Good Trading Brother,
JahDave

 

[JahDave]

I don't like the look of this, because the EW patterns are showing more highs after the lows that are coming up............Here are the daily Kiwi, Aussie and the Euro charts. The moves down on all three are in threes , and that is corrective................This means more USD weakness.............and I don't like it..............but that is what the charts are saying and I always believe the chart patterns........

Good Trading,
JahDave

 

[JahDave]

Based on the daily waves of the Euro, I will be buying at 1.3675.............

 

[Doomberg]

I am really sorry to hear that Doom. Are you still building your trading system??????? Once you understand the markets, (which I think you are doing well at that ) you should begin to build a trading system.............That will entail using what you want to signal a buy or sell, and you should use it on 3 different time frames before taking a trade............

Good Trading Brother,
JahDave

Yeah im still building my trading system, i think mainly i may excel at intraday as longer trades don't seem to suit me as well... but i'd love to get the hang of longer trades, i struggle not to intervene when something like a double bottom appears for example... getting much better though

 

[brettus]

Based on the daily waves of the Euro, I will be buying at 1.3675.............

Dave. What do you think of USDCHF? I've heard a few things about EURCHF bottoming out from a few good traders as well. With EURUSD potentially topping out. USDCHF might be the big mover?

 

[JahDave]

Dave. What do you think of USDCHF? I've heard a few things about EURCHF bottoming out from a few good traders as well. With EURUSD potentially topping out. USDCHF might be the big mover?

Hi Brettus,

I do track the USD_CHF, but I have not traded it for a while because I believe it will bottom out long term between .8300 and .8000. After I see an impulse move up on even the hourly chart then I will be looking to get in long on the pullback. I think this pair has the potential to go up to the 1.40 area in the next several years. Also I think the USD_JPY has some huge potential as well and I am currently long there for the long term with a small position.

Good Trading,
Dave

 

[JahDave]

My analysis is that the Euro is starting down in a "B" wave before it makes the final "C" wave up to the 1.4500 area. After that then we should see a good push down below 1.3900. I will have to watch wave patterns back down to see if it is impulsive or corrective on a bigger scale, but if it is impulsive down it will make it down to around 1.2000.

 

[JahDave]

The Monthly Euro looks like a leading diagonal down...............Also I have sold here because the hourly has given a sell fractal..........

 

[JahDave]

Hi Brettus,

I do track the USD_CHF, but I have not traded it for a while because I believe it will bottom out long term between .8300 and .8000. After I see an impulse move up on even the hourly chart then I will be looking to get in long on the pullback. I think this pair has the potential to go up to the 1.40 area in the next several years. Also I think the USD_JPY has some huge potential as well and I am currently long there for the long term with a small position.

Good Trading,
Dave

I just bought some USD_CHF at the .8280 area

 

[JahDave]

Here are my thoughts on the Swiss Franc. I bought it today at .8281. One of my posts several weeks ago said that my target was somewhere between .83 and .80 and that fibo time was showing a major reversal at the middle of July and that was not totally reliable, so I thought it may reverse around the end of June, and I think it has. I am posting up a five minute chart of the USD_CHF that is almost looking impulsive up. I will keep watching it and will decide where it is going based on wave patterns.

 

[JahDave]

Here is a good pitchfork setup on the 5 minute........I actually have already placed the lower line where I think it will go instead of where it is..........The reason for this is because on an Elliott wave count, then this pair should be in a "C" wave going down against the new trend, which is the last leg of wave 4 on a larger scale..............I think this pair will stay in the trendline up for a good while now.

 

[JahDave]

Here comes the Euro for one last gasp up to about the 1.4400. It is in a triangle right now and by Elliott Wave standards there is always one more move in the direction of the trend after that. And after that there is usually a very decisive move in the other direction after people realize that things have changed..............I am getting ready for some really good USD strength across the board the next several days or weeks......

 

[JahDave]

Now for the USD_JPY,,,,,,,,,I am going to post a naked chart except for candles and comments...........I love candlesticks as an indicator and use them everyday with other indicators..............Steve Nison has several great books you can buy that he wrote, and I think he is the king of western candlestick understanding...........Here goes.........

 

[JahDave]

Next Post, and I think we know where this is going.

 

[JahDave]

If the USD_CHF breaks the .8302 level then it will go lower.............I don't think it will..........but that is the test...........

 

[JahDave]

If the USD_CHF breaks the .8302 level then it will go lower.............I don't think it will..........but that is the test...........

This is the correct chart.....

 

[JahDave]

I think this will be a testament to Elliott Wave Theory..............If this is not, then I will still be at peace, as I know the USD_CHF is going to bottom soon........... The bottom line is that if it breaks the .8302 then it will go lower, and if it does not, then it has reversed...........

 

[JahDave]

I think it is funny that tops and bottoms have very low volume...............People are scared........I like to jump right in and believe that i got in at the right time..............I don't like to follow,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,I like to lead.............