Elliott Wave EUR/USD

[hwsteele]

Just a quick update. I just bought euro at 132.39 looking for a high in the 134-135 range. I'll post up a chart tonight, but I think this is a short term bottom and it is beginning the final move up before a substantial move down

Nice thread.
Where did you place your stop on the entry you made earlier?
I believe you are correct on the direction for the next day or so.

 

[JahDave]

Nice thread.
Where did you place your stop on the entry you made earlier?
I believe you are correct on the direction for the next day or so.

Thank you for the nice comments. I traded a very small lot with a stop at 1.31. When I look at the big move today it looks impulsive because of the steep drop, but it still looks like everything is in threes, which means corrective. I am still leaning to think this is corrective down. 5 would be impulsive. If this current move will push above the 1.3210, then that will help make the case for this not being an impulse down. If this does go above 1.3210 then I will add another very small lot long. Anyway, here are my charts: ask any questions if you like and I will try to explain my wave counts.

 

[JahDave]

The Euro made it to 132.18 which breached the the low level of 13210 on the hour chart. This helps bolster the case for the euro move being corrective down instead of impulsive down. I am attaching 2 different five minute charts . One is impulsive down and one is for a corrective wave down. Either one is correct at the moment, but not on the hour chart. My experience is that the hour chart usually trumps the 5 minute chart and the day chart trumps both.

 

[JahDave]

Here's my hour chart today. I'm still leaning towards this being corrective, but the B wave did go further than I thought. My 1.31 stop didn't get hit today and I am currently minus 18 pips, so I'm waiting to see if the move up will be as long as I think. Here is also a 5 minute chart to go with the hour. I have drawn out a zigzag that looks as if it will top out around the 1.3260 range. If this is impulsive down that will be a good spot for a reversal. If this correction is going higher I still expect a downturn to a Fibonacci level

 

[JahDave]

Short term update. I think the euro is going down to about the 1.3175 range before heading back up in five waves

 

[JahDave]

which will make the "C" leg of the zigzag

 

[JahDave]

Short term update. I think the euro is going down to about the 1.3175 range before heading back up in five waves

I counted the section of the red box as the entire "B" wave which would have made this a running flat at a downward angle. It looks more like this is playing out into a regular flat which means B will be about equal to A. If this is the case then wave C should end around the 1.32 area instead of the 1.3175 like I thought earlier.

 

[JahDave]

Here are my hour and day charts for today. Of course there is almost always alternate counts in Elliott Wave, but I am only posting my preferred count, because I don't have time to post all of my work here.

 

[jeanlee411]

more.

I'm posting a current chart and with my notes on it. That's the thing about corrective waves. They take more patience to trade because there are more possible patterns than impulse waves. I carried my short through the weekend for a nice profit, but have closed that position and am sitting out until this chart unfolds some more.

 

[JahDave]

I'm posting a current chart and with my notes on it. That's the thing about corrective waves. They take more patience to trade because there are more possible patterns than impulse waves. I carried my short through the weekend for a nice profit, but have closed that position and am sitting out until this chart unfolds some more.

I agree that corrective waves are harder to read because there are more possible outcomes until closer to the end of the pattern. Please post your chart. I love to look at other people's charts so that I can learn from them. Thanks. Anyway, I am posting up my day and hour charts. The day chart is reaching a critical juncture soon and we will know if this is an ending diagonal or an impulse down.

 

[JahDave]

Here is my daily chart today. My thoughts are if the euro goes below 1.3114 then we are in a third wave down and the ending diagonal count is void.

 

[JahDave]

The euro broke down below the 1.3114 today, so I have ruled out the ending diagonal and this is an impulse down.

 

[MaxGriddy]

Does the Elliot Wave Theory have specific advantages for use in currency trading compared to other indicators?

What's a good book to study Elliot Wave Theory?

Reading your posts I think it may help you to read up on fractals or maybe familiarize yourself with spotting fractals on a chart. I read something about it {i can't remember where, though} and I get a sense it would mend well with the EWT.

 

[JahDave]

Does the Elliot Wave Theory have specific advantages for use in currency trading compared to other indicators?

What's a good book to study Elliot Wave Theory?

Reading your posts I think it may help you to read up on fractals or maybe familiarize yourself with spotting fractals on a chart. I read something about it {i can't remember where, though} and I get a sense it would mend well with the EWT.

I bought the book "Elliott Wave Theory" written by frost and Prechter back in 1978. They found some of R.N. Elliott's writings and studied and expanded them. Funny you should mention fractals, because that is a large part of EWT. IMO, one of the best things about EWT is that you can use it on any time frame because the charts are fractals. Frost and Prechter state in the book that EWT measures mass social mood, so it works better with bigger markets compared to smaller markets.

Here are my charts today. I think the euro is entering into wave 4, so it should go up a for a while before making wave 5 down. I just bought it at 1.2825 with a stop at 1.2750 and a limit at 1.2975.

 

[JahDave]

Here is my daily chart tonight. If you notice the move down, then you will notice it doesn't have any subwaves going down in wave 5. I have 2 counts here on my chart. The one in brackets is my alternate count based on a logical progression and the size of wave 5 down, ( The green 5) But since wave 5 down doesn't have any subwaves in it then I am actually leaning towards my alternate count as being correct. This would mean that wave 5 will be extended and long.

 

[pssonice]

nice paintings, what about your trades ?

this is your last trade
"May 6, 2010, 1:49am #34 JahDave
I just bought it at 1.2825 with a stop at 1.2750 and a limit at 1.2975. "
You bought right before the crash.

 

[JahDave]

I am wrong sometimes.......Maybe you should trade opposite of me and then you might do better than me, but I am selling Euro right now at 129.70..Good luck...

 

[pssonice]

Applying Elliott Wave theory profitably is your aim.

can you confirm applying Elliott Wave theory profitably ?

 

[JahDave]

Re: Applying Elliott Wave theory profitably is your aim.

can you confirm applying Elliott Wave theory profitably ?

I have been profitable using Elliott Wave Theory for the last 8 or 10 months now. But with that being said I lost money trying to use it for the first year. I definitely think it is a valuable tool to have in your arsenal of trading methods, but for me there is no "Holy Grail" of trading. I started trading forex over two years ago and lost more money than I earned for the first year and a half. Here are the main tools I use to trade and it has been working consistently for me for the last eight or ten months:

Elliott Wave on trending and non-trending markets:

RSI works great during non-trending markets, but it will get you killed in trending markets, and Elliott Wave lets me know when to expect non-trending times in the market:

Fibonacci retracements and extensions at all times:

Candlestick patterns at EW and Fibo turning points:

and finally I do watch for upcoming economic announcements that are of high importance because they definitely can move the market.

This is a lot of work, but I don't know of an easy way to make money unless you pay to follow someone else's advice, or pay them to trade your money for you, and I find my trading work interesting and fun, unlike other jobs I have done in the past.

 

[JahDave]

Here is my Euro day chart for today. Nothing has happened in the last several days to confirm either count I have. The 1.3264 is the bottom of wave 1, so if the Euro breaks above that we should have a bigger correction up and if it breaks below 1.25 it should show more weakness.