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Elliott wave analysis and Grains, Oil and Metals
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GOLD - Need a systematic approach?
Forecasting and trading on the financial markets are bad things to do if you don't have a systematic approach. It means that if your trading strategy allows you to have a guess one time out of ten, then you'd better do something else for a living. A working strategy requires successful forecasting in both directions - upward, and downside. This would allow you to stay tuned to the market, and take the most of the opportunities it offers.
Now, let's take a look at two charts of GOLD, taken from two different Metals Bulletins. The first one is from July 13:
"GOLD - Lower, for wave v.
We saw the new low that we expected for wave iii, and some sideways price action for wave iv. Although we can not be sure if wave iv is done, there are enough evidences to suspect that we're gonna see another low this week. Critical level at 1,230. Appropriate target at 1,157."
As you can see from the next chart below, we had our forecast right and the target was reached.
Wave count could change, because of the new market structure, but the analysis was right. So, we saw the bottom we expected and moved on with the next perspective, from August 03:
"GOLD - Higher.
We expect the rally to continue til we see wave ii done. Critical level at 1,156. Appropriate target at 1,223."
And right now, if you take a look at the GOLD's chart, you'll see that the target was reached just a couple of hours ago. So we had our Elliott wave analysis for both directions - lower and higher price action. Even more, the market reached exactly the targets we set, again, chosen with the Elliott wave theory.
Forecasting and trading on the financial markets are bad things to do if you don't have a systematic approach. It means that if your trading strategy allows you to have a guess one time out of ten, then you'd better do something else for a living. A working strategy requires successful forecasting in both directions - upward, and downside. This would allow you to stay tuned to the market, and take the most of the opportunities it offers.
Now, let's take a look at two charts of GOLD, taken from two different Metals Bulletins. The first one is from July 13:
"GOLD - Lower, for wave v.
We saw the new low that we expected for wave iii, and some sideways price action for wave iv. Although we can not be sure if wave iv is done, there are enough evidences to suspect that we're gonna see another low this week. Critical level at 1,230. Appropriate target at 1,157."
As you can see from the next chart below, we had our forecast right and the target was reached.
Wave count could change, because of the new market structure, but the analysis was right. So, we saw the bottom we expected and moved on with the next perspective, from August 03:
"GOLD - Higher.
We expect the rally to continue til we see wave ii done. Critical level at 1,156. Appropriate target at 1,223."
And right now, if you take a look at the GOLD's chart, you'll see that the target was reached just a couple of hours ago. So we had our Elliott wave analysis for both directions - lower and higher price action. Even more, the market reached exactly the targets we set, again, chosen with the Elliott wave theory.
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Crude Oil - A Technical Outlook before the Trigger
In times of near the edge of extreme optimism and buy now mania for precious metals, accompanied with the "deflationary crisis is behind our backs now" opinions, it's good to keep an eye on the most important commodity - Crude oil and its derivatives. We keep listening about the economy based on knowledge, especially from the European leaders. But you know, the truth is that the world economy is based on Oil. And honestly, I don't see how that's gonna change, not in the next few years. So we'll keep consuming oil like hell, worrying whether the price will rise or fall. Right now, especially after the 2008 dramatic fall, all eyes are held on tomorrow's FED announcement. Tension in the air. If the QE2 package is smaller than expected, the oil will slip back from the recent gaining, or vice versa. So they say. I'd like to pay your attention on another factor - mass psychology and the technical picture on short term Crude Oil market. Now, in this moment, I can really focus on two major Elliott wave outlooks on WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil:
If we can consider wave X to be done at 87.41, then that level is set as critical and we can expect a serious short term drop with appropriate target near 46.30. Some labels on the chart are not shown. That we can define as scenario 1.
Scenario 2 gives us perspective of another rally. The appropriate target for the top of wave X in case I would set near 106. That level is near key mass psychology resistance, because it represents the upper shoulder of the channel, and is also near the 1.618 Fibo level of the 2008 fall.
There is no primary scenario at this moment. I would say that both of them are equal from technical point of view. In either way, tomorrow's announcements will trigger one of them.
In times of near the edge of extreme optimism and buy now mania for precious metals, accompanied with the "deflationary crisis is behind our backs now" opinions, it's good to keep an eye on the most important commodity - Crude oil and its derivatives. We keep listening about the economy based on knowledge, especially from the European leaders. But you know, the truth is that the world economy is based on Oil. And honestly, I don't see how that's gonna change, not in the next few years. So we'll keep consuming oil like hell, worrying whether the price will rise or fall. Right now, especially after the 2008 dramatic fall, all eyes are held on tomorrow's FED announcement. Tension in the air. If the QE2 package is smaller than expected, the oil will slip back from the recent gaining, or vice versa. So they say. I'd like to pay your attention on another factor - mass psychology and the technical picture on short term Crude Oil market. Now, in this moment, I can really focus on two major Elliott wave outlooks on WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil:
If we can consider wave X to be done at 87.41, then that level is set as critical and we can expect a serious short term drop with appropriate target near 46.30. Some labels on the chart are not shown. That we can define as scenario 1.
Scenario 2 gives us perspective of another rally. The appropriate target for the top of wave X in case I would set near 106. That level is near key mass psychology resistance, because it represents the upper shoulder of the channel, and is also near the 1.618 Fibo level of the 2008 fall.
There is no primary scenario at this moment. I would say that both of them are equal from technical point of view. In either way, tomorrow's announcements will trigger one of them.
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SILVER - No News, no Fundamentals
If you constantly read our articles, you may have noticed that we don't follow financial news. The only thing we use them for is to show that they are not reliable and worthy. What we do is using technical and Elliott wave analysis to forecast certain markets. A lot of people will say that it's crazy to forecast markets without following news and fundamentals. Well, I must say - it is not only far from craziness, but it works quite well for us and our subscribers. And here is just another brief example of what we do:
One month ago, on November 23 we published our Metals Bulletin, in which we announced our short term perspective on SILVER:
SILVER - Correcting, then higher.
I suggest that we're gonna see another rally for wave c of z of B. Appropriate target at 30.8017. Critical level at 24.959.
Two weeks after our forecast was published, the market reached the 30.70-80 area and hit the target. The major message here is that you can forecast and predict markets without even paying attention to news and fundamentals.
If you constantly read our articles, you may have noticed that we don't follow financial news. The only thing we use them for is to show that they are not reliable and worthy. What we do is using technical and Elliott wave analysis to forecast certain markets. A lot of people will say that it's crazy to forecast markets without following news and fundamentals. Well, I must say - it is not only far from craziness, but it works quite well for us and our subscribers. And here is just another brief example of what we do:
One month ago, on November 23 we published our Metals Bulletin, in which we announced our short term perspective on SILVER:
SILVER - Correcting, then higher.
I suggest that we're gonna see another rally for wave c of z of B. Appropriate target at 30.8017. Critical level at 24.959.
Two weeks after our forecast was published, the market reached the 30.70-80 area and hit the target. The major message here is that you can forecast and predict markets without even paying attention to news and fundamentals.
