you may take a look at
http://www.tradecision.com/elliott_waves.htm
http://www.tradecision.com/elliott_waves.htm
Elliot Wave Detector
- Thread starter TheBramble
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I'll be honest (as usual 😉 )
I think that someone out there can make a valid case for tossing the chicken bones or analysing the runes, and it will suit somebody... and they'll make money doing it! That doesn't mean 90% of traders will be similarly fortunate. As far as EW goes I read a Bob Prechter book, spent some time on charts trying to apply it, and decided it was too subject to interpretation - you can set a simple rule like 'sets X consecutive new highs' and there's not much doubt about whether the pattern is there or not, you can mess about with timeframes and reanalyse when it all goes wrong in EW and convince yourself YOU got it wrong when things go the wrong direction... it wasn't a bad signal, you misinterpreted it.
My view on this is fairly simple - the one job of a signal is to give an unambiguous alert that a condition has been met, and if it doesn't do that then it's not worth hanging your hat on. It should be impossible to get the signal wrong, ie you buy, it falls, then that's 1 in the 'signal failed' column, not a prompt to slap yourself on the head for misinterpretation.
From MT above it sounds like an unambiguous signal is being produced, I have no idea how well it works, but I would stress that nothing in my fairly gentle criticism of EW is intended as a criticism of this program (which I have no experience of, I'll stick to P&F thanks).
The link was fun Mario, I DO wish somebody would actually confirm whether Gann made a huge packet and expired by suffocating when the 100$ bills fell over on him during a stocktake, or the other rumour - that he didn't actually do all that well but it all sounds really good - is the correct version.
I'll get my coat....<g>
Dave
I think that someone out there can make a valid case for tossing the chicken bones or analysing the runes, and it will suit somebody... and they'll make money doing it! That doesn't mean 90% of traders will be similarly fortunate. As far as EW goes I read a Bob Prechter book, spent some time on charts trying to apply it, and decided it was too subject to interpretation - you can set a simple rule like 'sets X consecutive new highs' and there's not much doubt about whether the pattern is there or not, you can mess about with timeframes and reanalyse when it all goes wrong in EW and convince yourself YOU got it wrong when things go the wrong direction... it wasn't a bad signal, you misinterpreted it.
My view on this is fairly simple - the one job of a signal is to give an unambiguous alert that a condition has been met, and if it doesn't do that then it's not worth hanging your hat on. It should be impossible to get the signal wrong, ie you buy, it falls, then that's 1 in the 'signal failed' column, not a prompt to slap yourself on the head for misinterpretation.
From MT above it sounds like an unambiguous signal is being produced, I have no idea how well it works, but I would stress that nothing in my fairly gentle criticism of EW is intended as a criticism of this program (which I have no experience of, I'll stick to P&F thanks).
The link was fun Mario, I DO wish somebody would actually confirm whether Gann made a huge packet and expired by suffocating when the 100$ bills fell over on him during a stocktake, or the other rumour - that he didn't actually do all that well but it all sounds really good - is the correct version.
I'll get my coat....<g>
Dave
bigtimetrader
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BBB said:
I agree elliot wave is a bunch of BS.
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frugi said:
Like this, you mean?
http://www.debsfunpages.com/easterswf/rapeasterbunny.swf
:cheesy: :cheesy: :cheesy:
TheBramble
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Don't know which bunny has the baseball cap on, but for max street cred - it needs to be on the other way round!
And as this thread is now off on a far more interesting jolly through the country side - poop poop.....
It's possible some of you people are using an automated anagram generator (come on, own up!).
I've been looking for one of these for ages. Any pointers?
And as this thread is now off on a far more interesting jolly through the country side - poop poop.....
It's possible some of you people are using an automated anagram generator (come on, own up!).
I've been looking for one of these for ages. Any pointers?
Last edited:
TheBramble
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eddyjo said:
Thanks EJ. I think I can get the gist of Elliot in 'the' one diagram so I'm not disposed to pay big bucks for loads of videos and manuals (and I understand Prechter can be a bit of a complex read) or spend the time in reviewing them, but what I was after was a way of automatically scanning stocks for the identification of current wave position.
Seems from responses so far, you either 'see' it or you don't.
I've had a look at the few systems that claim to do this and while some are quite good at showing where there was a wave formation - when they come up against the hard right edge...
frugi
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Bramble,
I could have cheated and added "Occam's skiddoo mittens" among other faintly silly combinations, but that would have been a dead giveaway. All my own work, honest guv 🙂
http://www.wordsmith.org/anagram/
I could have cheated and added "Occam's skiddoo mittens" among other faintly silly combinations, but that would have been a dead giveaway. All my own work, honest guv 🙂
http://www.wordsmith.org/anagram/
All my own work,
as the rejected entry "Commies don't stick soda" patently makes clear. Never met Occam, but I understand he makes damned fine razors....
Back to the actual discussion, cynic that I am I can't help feeling that Prechter made more selling the tapes than anyone did watching them - the exchange rate will have to drop substantially before 900 anything looks a bargain, including the Zloty.
Ultimately you can synthesize any complex waveform by superposing component waves - that's pretty well how your PC delivers music - so the ability to decompile complex structure into its components isn't actually magic, it's just data crunching. The problem is that taken over the period 2000-2005 (for example) if you had all the data you could decrunch it, and find the combination of waves that fitted the actual share price chart, that is not necessarily the same set of waves that will make the 2000-2004 chart look correct.
It all fits really well provided you don't assess how it fits beyond today - the further forward you take today's analysis the further reality will diverge from the plan of what ought to happen.
Human nature then takes one of two courses, either the software vendor is called all the names under the sun in the brief period before the overdraft causes broadband services to terminate, or the buyer decides they 'didn't follow the plan properly' and blames themselves for lack of commitment (even though a complete fanatic would have given it up as a lost cause by that point) or failure to analyse correctly... this is no great revelation, but seems to take some an age to understand - a decent system should be simple and robust enough to make misinterpretation the exception, not a common occurrence. If signals are regularly misinterpreted then the fault is in the system, not the user. The basic idea behind a system is to make it pretty well automatic, to remove human influence to a large degree so that fads and fancies don't mess up the steady move towards zillionairedom, a system that requires too much interpretation will bomb the moment a few losses sow the seeds of doubt.
Flip a coin, over the long term it'll be 50% right - that's not bad compared to many systems I've tested over the past 2-3 years!
Dave
as the rejected entry "Commies don't stick soda" patently makes clear. Never met Occam, but I understand he makes damned fine razors....
Back to the actual discussion, cynic that I am I can't help feeling that Prechter made more selling the tapes than anyone did watching them - the exchange rate will have to drop substantially before 900 anything looks a bargain, including the Zloty.
Ultimately you can synthesize any complex waveform by superposing component waves - that's pretty well how your PC delivers music - so the ability to decompile complex structure into its components isn't actually magic, it's just data crunching. The problem is that taken over the period 2000-2005 (for example) if you had all the data you could decrunch it, and find the combination of waves that fitted the actual share price chart, that is not necessarily the same set of waves that will make the 2000-2004 chart look correct.
It all fits really well provided you don't assess how it fits beyond today - the further forward you take today's analysis the further reality will diverge from the plan of what ought to happen.
Human nature then takes one of two courses, either the software vendor is called all the names under the sun in the brief period before the overdraft causes broadband services to terminate, or the buyer decides they 'didn't follow the plan properly' and blames themselves for lack of commitment (even though a complete fanatic would have given it up as a lost cause by that point) or failure to analyse correctly... this is no great revelation, but seems to take some an age to understand - a decent system should be simple and robust enough to make misinterpretation the exception, not a common occurrence. If signals are regularly misinterpreted then the fault is in the system, not the user. The basic idea behind a system is to make it pretty well automatic, to remove human influence to a large degree so that fads and fancies don't mess up the steady move towards zillionairedom, a system that requires too much interpretation will bomb the moment a few losses sow the seeds of doubt.
Flip a coin, over the long term it'll be 50% right - that's not bad compared to many systems I've tested over the past 2-3 years!
Dave
TheBramble
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I suspect you're right Dave. In my early 'find the grail' days I went through the card and guess what: I'm not using any of these systems today!DaveJB said:
Elliott had it spot on - during his day. It worked, while it worked, marvellously. Then it didn't.
The fact that it 'works' today when it does it probably the same reason most systems of any kind work now and again.
I don't know enough of Elliott to justifiably be making the above comment and I know there are a few on these boards who are really expert in utilising it - when it's obvious (their words).
I guess that's what I was looking for in the initial post in this thread - not a system that's going to work better than 50/50 over the long haul - just something that can identify when we're in a definitively observable 'N'th wave. Perhaps it's best left at the eyeball level - for those that either can or can't.
Agreed,
I wouldn't say any idea is bad, I've not studied EW enough to say it's no good and in fact I bet it works just great sometimes - if I could have a kind fairy provide one trading aid it wouldn't be 'the killer app' it'd be a program that analysed the market, or my chosen subset from it, and told me the method to use trading it with an estimate of how long it'd be good for.
Dave
I wouldn't say any idea is bad, I've not studied EW enough to say it's no good and in fact I bet it works just great sometimes - if I could have a kind fairy provide one trading aid it wouldn't be 'the killer app' it'd be a program that analysed the market, or my chosen subset from it, and told me the method to use trading it with an estimate of how long it'd be good for.
Dave
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