EJ Daytraders v The Rest of The World

The range on the EJ is about 30 pips from 9pm on Friday so worth checking out at 6am. 3 day ave = 106RGR, safe 70R
 
Good morning all,

I have put orders in to sell at 131.60 20SL & 40 PT and to buy 132.07 20SL & 40 PT
I will cancel the second trade once the first triggers and re-assess
 
On Friday my trade hit 46 pips and reversed to +16 pips by 8.45pm

I will be adopting a different stance this week. I have cut back on my SL to 20 pips so as to yield a better profit to loss ratio. I know from past experience that to capture most winners from retraces it is best to use a 45SL on the early morning EJ trades. However, particularly when we are suffering from low range days as for example today; we have a 46/47 range after allowing for brokerage. The safe range is 70pips and the 3 day average is 106 pips. To get to the safe range (very high win rate) equates to 23 pips and to get to the 3 day average Possibly 50% of the time, but needs further analysis) = 59 pips. Using a 45SL today would indeed cover 59 pips as long as the EJ reaches its 3 day average; however, also by experience I do know that quite often when price takes off from the early morning criteria then it goes on a good run without retracing very much. This being so, I am willing to lose 20 pips when a 45+SL would have yielded a win. Sure, if I get it wrong and my cover was not enough and and say a winner occurs had I used a 45+SL for say a 1:1 SL/PT for 45 pips or a hopeful 59 pips then at least I have only wasted 20 pips. But let's say that the trade did not win and price kept going the opposite way and the SL got hit; I now have the choice of leaving the opposite trade in place for yet another 20SL and possible 40 pips (depending on how far the first trade went before reversing). If this fails then I have lost 40 pips (5 pips less than the first trade but have given myself two chances). Quite often the second trade has a diminished profit target that means that even if it wins this will result in an overall net loss) and of course the fear is always there of a double loss which equates to 90+ pips versus 40. In using a regular 20SL it also gives me scope to aim for say the ideal of say 59 pips as in today's example but also gives me the flexibility of settling for a 2:1 profit ratio of 40 pips, a 1.5:1 profit ratio of 30 pips or even an even money bet of 20 pips should the run look like petering out early. Further, I have now persuaded myself that it is a good strategy to assume that the overall direction on any one day will continue the way it sets off from the early morning criteria. Yes of course it could just turnaround and go the opposite way and it will do sometimes, however, I have to be consistent in my trading and not keep changing direction with the assumed appearance of price movements. What this means is that say my trade loses today (it has recently gone "short" then, although I may lose my 20 pips by not having a sufficient SL then if price does then go short again once more, as long as I have a retrace in the region of 30+ pips I can then execute my second trade "short" in the hope that I will once again at least achieve a 20 pips profit.
 
Will let the "short" run and have cancelled the "long" Total risk is 20 pips whilst I am out to lunch
 
EJs one of the pairs worth trading atm along with GBPJPY, EURAUD, AUD/JPY, CHFJPY Not sure wht your basis for long was as EU is weaker than Yen across the board atm and price has been below the open, since the open in any meaningful hours. Average 52 week range on the pair is circa 350 pips.
Good short though.
 
Got back about 15 mins ago. The trade was going down nicely but the candle to 3.15pm showed a strong reversal. I exited the trade at B/E but lost 30p. doesn't look too good atm, so may be I made the best move. Very slow day today
 
Well, a slow old day.
The 3 day average is EJ 88R,safe 58R. The EJ didn't quite reach the safe range today so quite disappointing. No red news tomorrow so will we have more of the same?
 
Just got up and just missed the "long" at 131.72 damn it. Would use a 20 SL & 40 Limit

Will have to wait for a retrace, but some how think I've missed out
 
Came out at B/E or profit of 40p. The reason for this is that the low since 9pm last night is 131.12 & the most recent high is 131.84 = a total range of 72 pips. The 3 day average is 88 pips and so only scope for an extra 16 pips on current figures. What I think I really need is a decent retracement which would have taken out my 20SL and then have another go with scope to obtain at least 30 pips and avoiding the hazard of the BRN
 
The average is as follows: EJ 82RRG, safe 55R

All this looks pretty skinny for trend trades; the GU has a better range atm and I may try a news trade tomorrow around 9.30am
 
nunrgguy said:
EJs one of the pairs worth trading atm along with GBPJPY, EURAUD, AUD/JPY, CHFJPY Not sure wht your basis for long was as EU is weaker than Yen across the board atm and price has been below the open, since the open in any meaningful hours. Average 52 week range on the pair is circa 350 pips.
Good short though.
Click to expand...

Many thanks for your reply, sorry not to reply sooner.

Also thanks for info on the currency pairs. I am happy to trade any of them as long as the brokerage is on a par with the EJ/GU. Perhaps you could advise?

The reason why I suggested a "long" is that I use the bandwidth range from 11pm at night through to 6am in the morning. I will set a trade "long" 3 pips above the high and a short trade 2 pips below the low. I generally go with a trade that reaches the high or low first as I find it incredibly difficult to predict which way the EJ will go for the day beforehand. All this is subject to whether price can at least reach the 3 day average and make a good profit in relation to my stop loss. I hope that this explains it a bit.

Not sure what you meant about an entry point is easy to find, to me it is one of the most difficult choices in FX; hence if you can elaborate on "drawing a line etc." I would appreciate it.

I have been recording the ranges on the EJ, EU & GU since the start of this year and I make the average daily range of pips on the EJ since 1st January to be 166 pips; the GU has achieved 114, whilst the EU 100. Not sure how that compares with your stats.

Many thanks for your message, always interested in hearing from a fellow trader
 
Good morning pip pickers,

The range is quite high at 68 and price is near the top so I have taken a chance and set an order at 132.20 "long" 20SL & 40 limit. Will watch it closely
 
Good job my order did not trigger as the trade would have lost. I have cancelled the order now and may look to go "long" when I feel that the "short" run has come to an end. Now, I also have the BRN to contend with
 
All currencies falling against the dollar; it's almost as if the USA has sorted out its problems but nothing showing on the TV yet
 
With all the currencies plunging atm I am now inclined to wait for a decent retrace (approx 30 pips) on the EJ and then go "short"
 
Off for a shower now. I have set up a "short" at 132.00 for a 20SL & 40 limit whilst I am away from the PC
 
MIKE FARRELL said:
Many thanks for your reply, sorry not to reply sooner.

Also thanks for info on the currency pairs. I am happy to trade any of them as long as the brokerage is on a par with the EJ/GU. Perhaps you could advise?

The reason why I suggested a "long" is that I use the bandwidth range from 11pm at night through to 6am in the morning. I will set a trade "long" 3 pips above the high and a short trade 2 pips below the low. I generally go with a trade that reaches the high or low first as I find it incredibly difficult to predict which way the EJ will go for the day beforehand. All this is subject to whether price can at least reach the 3 day average and make a good profit in relation to my stop loss. I hope that this explains it a bit.

Not sure what you meant about an entry point is easy to find, to me it is one of the most difficult choices in FX; hence if you can elaborate on "drawing a line etc." I would appreciate it.

I have been recording the ranges on the EJ, EU & GU since the start of this year and I make the average daily range of pips on the EJ since 1st January to be 166 pips; the GU has achieved 114, whilst the EU 100. Not sure how that compares with your stats.

Many thanks for your message, always interested in hearing from a fellow trader
Click to expand...

I see, yeah you're taking the morning b/o. I tend to filter with the weekly open unless price is hitting a statistical area then I consider trading counter.

Daily ranges (21 day approx month):
GJ: 129
EA: 123
EJ: 109
AJ: 104
GU: 100

Drawing a line: can be as simple as using the weekly open as a filter ( a 'line) and trading long above it or short below, criteria for a trade, just another line maybe, whether that be a bar breakout, a range breakout, supply/demand area, whatever....until you see something else :LOL:.

If you look at a weekly bar, price is either breakout out from the open or retracing from the current hi/low, can't do anything else but that: which is why when looking at the b/o from the open the only pairs that interest me are the ones that are statistically going to move far enough over the week to be worth a damn.

I do look at certain levels from the previous week too: this morning's EJ reversal was off last weekls close for example: not a trade I've taken as price was above the weekly open so could still be breaking out and there was no range there back to the weekly open on the timescales I hold for - on an hourly chart, nice trade: 40 pips+ so far and still holding.

I've been at this a fair old while and the longer I look at it I see that all the tech analysis in the world (draw all those lines ALL over your chart, trend lines, s/r, supdem, gartleys, angles, butterflies, pivots, lalalalaa) don't mean a damn once the trade is opened - it'll still go either for you or against you. 'High probability entries', 'edge', yadaydadaydada: who talks about those? The 95% or the 5%? Has ANYONE ever measured those probabilties? How? So best keeping it so simple even your granny could trade it :LOL: Morning breakout is as good as anything. Personally I can never get my @rse out of bed early enough to trade it :LOL:

All the rest is just position sizing, trade management and waiting. Oh, and of course looking at my magic tea leaves (y)
 
Last edited:
nunrgguy said:
I see, yeah you're taking the morning b/o. I tend to filter with the weekly open unless price is hitting a statistical area then I consider trading counter.

Daily ranges (21 day approx month):
GJ: 129
EA: 123
EJ: 109
AJ: 104
GU: 100

Drawing a line: can be as simple as using the weekly open as a filter ( a 'line) and trading long above it or short below, criteria for a trade, just another line maybe, whether that be a bar breakout, a range breakout, supply/demand area, whatever....until you see something else :LOL:.

If you look at a weekly bar, price is either breakout out from the open or retracing from the current hi/low, can't do anything else but that: which is why when looking at the b/o from the open the only pairs that interest me are the ones that are statistically going to move far enough over the week to be worth a damn.

I do look at certain levels from the previous week too: this morning's EJ reversal was off last weekls close for example: not a trade I've taken as price was above the weekly open so could still be breaking out and there was no range there back to the weekly open on the timescales I hold for - on an hourly chart, nice trade: 40 pips+ so far and still holding.

I've been at this a fair old while and the longer I look at it I see that all the tech analysis in the world (draw all those lines ALL over your chart, trend lines, s/r, supdem, gartleys, angles, butterflies, pivots, lalalalaa) don't mean a damn once the trade is opened - it'll still go either for you or against you. 'High probability entries', 'edge', yadaydadaydada: who talks about those? The 95% or the 5%? Has ANYONE ever measured those probabilties? How? So best keeping it so simple even your granny could trade it :LOL: Morning breakout is as good as anything. Personally I can never get my @rse out of bed early enough to trade it :LOL:

All the rest is just position sizing, trade management and waiting. Oh, and of course looking at my magic tea leaves (y)
Click to expand...

Very many thanks for your insight, I will certainly take a look at the weekly positions from now on. I too believe in keeping things simple rather than wait around for signals that generally take up so many pips to get there that there aren't any left over to make a profit. Thank you once again
 
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